An NFL Championship double header kicks off on Monday morning our time, with the Kansas City Chiefs heading to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. Then we head to San Francisco, as the 49ers host the Detroit Lions for a place in the Super Bowl. Four tremendous teams, two exciting matchups, and what better way to take it all in, than winning some money playing DFS!
Draftstars has a $10,000 contest, with a $971 first prize. There are plenty of other contests for everyone to get involved. A slight change to the format this week with just the two games. At this point, everyone knows who the studs are, so we will try and give you a value selection for each position, and a player to avoid for each position. Let’s get it!
NFL 2023-24 Daily Fantasy Tips: Conference Championships
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff - $12,310 (Value)
No, this isn’t a copy and paste from last week, although we do have the same two quarterbacks selected in this write up. Goff is the cheapest quarterback in this slate and is so by nearly $3,000! Now, I do believe Lamar Jackson is an obvious selection at quarterback, with easily the highest ceiling, however we’re looking for value here. Goff takes on a 49ers defence that has struggled this season, although they have held opposing quarterbacks in fantasy quite well. Goff has a solid floor, and if you’re looking at a point of difference at quarterback in the hope Lamar struggles, Goff saves you money and will get you around 20 every week.
Patrick Mahomes - $16,340 (Avoid)
Mahomes is essentially the same price as last week, and to be honest he just doesn’t have the ceiling this year to play him in this spot. The Ravens defence is all time, and this includes fantasy, as they hold opposing quarterbacks to the lowest average this season. Mahomes has only exceeded 25 points once this season and hasn’t gone above 21 since week 7! Yes, he may have another great game and win the clash for the Chiefs, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to huge fantasy output. In fact, I believe if the Chiefs do win this game, all four quarterbacks are likely to have very similar scores this weekend, and if that’s the case, you might as well save some money and take Goff or Purdy.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco - $12,900 (Value)
Pacheco is the second most expensive running back in this slate, cheaper than only Christian McCaffrey (see below). However, this is still cheap! CMC is so far and away the most expensive running back in this slate, that he makes those below him cheaper, and therefore more valuable. Pacheco is nursing a foot injury, but that won’t stop him here. Of all four teams playing this weekend, the Ravens concede the most points to opposing running backs in fantasy this season. If the Chiefs can keep this game close, I expect them to lean on Pacheco heavily. If he gets his opportunities, Pacheco will score you between 15 and 25, at a solid price. If the Chiefs are chasing, Pacheco could be a bust here, but I trust the Chiefs to keep it competitive.
Christian McCaffrey - $21,760 (Avoid)
Ok, so this could be a terrible call, as McCaffrey, aside from Lamar Jackson, is the highest upside play in this slate, and it’s not particularly close. I have no doubt that McCaffrey will score. He is a volume monster, and even if the 49ers struggle to get going on the ground, they are more than happy to use their running back in the passing game. I’m basing this selection on two things. Firstly, the Lions run defence is elite. They concede the least fantasy points to opposing running backs in the NFL. Second, I believe this game could turn into a track meet, in which case the 49ers will surely throw the ball more, given the Lions poor secondary. CMC is the best fantasy player in the NFL, but I’ll be selecting teams this week fading him.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk - $13,520 (Value)
Aiyuk has had two down weeks in a row, and it’s time for him to step up again. This week, the 49ers get to take on the Lions, who concede the third most points to opposing wide receivers in fantasy. Deebo Samuel has the higher ceiling, but given he is questionable to play, I’ll take Aiyuk to be the leading receiver for the 49ers in this one. Aiyuk has four scores of 20+, and one of 30+ this season, so whilst his ceiling isn’t quite there, his floor should prop you up nicely if you can afford him as a WR2 behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, who looks to be the WR1 in this slate.
Zay Flowers - $11,270 (Avoid)
Flowers will be matched up with L’Jarius Sneed, who has been absolutely dominant shadowing opposing WR1’s this season. Flowers’ ceiling isn’t massive, with a high score of 23 this season, and his floor is concerning, particularly in this matchup, with six scores under 10 this season. The Chiefs’ conceded the third least points to opposing wide receivers this season in fantasy, and I just see the Ravens going back to a similar offensive game plan to the one they used in the second half last week, heavy run, and using Lamar’s legs. Fading Flowers in this slate.
Tight Ends
George Kittle - $11,600 (Value)
George Kittle is expensive, the second most expensive tight end in this slate, however I still see value here. With Travis Kelce seemingly back after we faded him last week, many will be taking Kelce in their squads this week. I’m going contrarian on that selection and taking Kittle here. Whilst both these tight ends are essentially matchup proof, the 49ers and Kittle are taking on a Lions team that has been gashed by opposing tight ends this season, conceding the ninth most fantasy points per game. I see a lot more throwing in the 49ers/Lions game, and with that comes more opportunity for Kittle. With Deebo also in doubt, Kittle should get more targets, and with a score could be a real game winner in this slate.
Sam LaPorta - $9,500 (Avoid)
Sammy LaPorta has been elite this season, and given he is far cheaper than Kelce and Kittle, many will believe he is good value here. This week though, he runs into an elite defence against tight ends in the 49ers, who hold opposing tight ends to fourth-lowest points per game. With their superstar linebacker pairing of Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner, tight ends have it tough. I’m sure LaPorta will still get his targets, I’m just concerned with what he will do with them. I much prefer Kittle, Andrews, and even Likely in this spot over LaPorta.
D/ST
Detroit Lions - $4,000 (Value)
Whilst the Chiefs/Ravens game is expected to be lower scoring than this matchup, I expect something similar to the Chiefs/Bills game from last week, where both defences don’t score much in fantasy, with limited sacks and limited turnovers. Whilst I expect more points to be scored in the NFC Championship game, I also expect both quarterbacks to be far more nervous, and far more likely to give up turnovers and sacks. The Lions are the cheapest option here, and whilst I expect the 49ers to score points, I also expect the Lions to get to Purdy, and to potentially create turnovers. Easy way to save money, as I don’t love any D/ST unit in this slate, and any or all could be the highest scorer with some turnover luck.
San Francisco 49ers - $6,880 (Avoid)
Basically, the inverse of the Lions write up, the 49ers are by far the most expensive in this slate, and it’s a defence that has struggled to get to the quarterback lately. Given how well the Lions offensive line has held up, I expect Goff to have time in the pocket, which will limit the sacks for the 49ers, and limit the turnover worthy plays from Goff. As above, any team could have the highest D/ST units in this slate, and with the 49ers being the most expensive, I believe they are an avoid here.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
