Monday Night Football in Week 3 gives us a twice the excitement, with the first Monday night double-header of the season. We kick things off in Buffalo, as the Bills look to continue their perfect start to the season, as they host the 0-2 Jags. 45 minutes later, the Bengals welcome the Commanders to Paycor Stadium, with the home team desperate to get their first win of the season. We bring you our best bets for the double-header below!
NFL Week 3 Tuesday Betting Tips
Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Highmark Stadium, Tuesday 24th September, 9:30am (AEST)
Last Week
The Bills were utterly dominant last week, as they hammered their AFC East rivals in Miami, spanking the Dolphins 31-10. The best thing for the Bills was the fact they managed this win off the back of their defence, and a huge game by running back James Cook. Josh Allen didn’t have to do much at all, in a nice change up for the superstar quarterback. The Dolphins managed to outgain the Bills 351-247, but three turnovers were too much to overcome, as the Bills cruised to their second straight win to the start the season.
As for the Jags, their season has started in complete contrast to the Bills’, dropping to 0-2 with a road game against the Bills on deck not making things any easier. Last week, they took on a Browns team that also had a sputtering start to the season, and whilst the Jags had the superior box score, they couldn’t get the job done in the endzone, ending the game down 18-13. There are major concerns with the Jags offense, and if it doesn’t turn around soon, this could be a wasted season for the AFC South side.
Match Preview
The Bills and Jags last met in week 5 last season, playing out their clash in London where the Bills closed as 4.5-point favourites at the neutral site venue. The Jags managed to not only cover the spread, but win outright, as they snuck by the Bills 25-20. Whilst Trevor Lawrence was solid, it was Travis Etienne that got the Jags home, rushing for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. The total closed 48.5, going under despite 27 points scored in the final quarter.
The Jags opened 3.5-point underdogs on the lookahead, but after another poor showing in week 2, the Bills pushed all the way out to 6-point favourites on re-open. The market saw that as too big a shift, with money coming in on the Jags to push the handicap down to just 5. In terms of the total, it opened 47.5 on the lookahead, before slowly heading south, re-opening at 46.5, and bet down to 45.5 at the time of writing.
I make the Bills a 5.5-point favourite for this clash, so my number is pretty much on market. I also agree with the move to the under, with both teams showing good signs defensively to start the season. Whilst I would have loved the early 47.5, it’s not longer available, however I’ll take the under as my best bet here and just reduce the staking. I would also lean towards the Bills covering this number; however, the Jags will be desperate for a strong showing here to not go to 0-3.
As for a prop play in this game, I like Travis Etienne to get his over. The Bills run defence has been their weak side, and whilst the Jags are more than likely going to have to air it out to stay with the Bills, if they can keep this relatively tight, I expect Etienne to feature heavily.
Prop Bet: Travis Etienne (over) 48.5 rushing yards - $1.87 at Unibet (1u)
Under 45.5 points
$1.97 (1.5 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders
Paycor Stadium, Tuesday 24th September, 10:15am (AEST)
Last Week
The Bengals came into week 2 fresh off a poor week 1 loss at home to the Patriots, heading to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. After closing 6.5-point underdogs, the Bengals were in it up to their eyeballs, leading 22-17 heading into the final quarter. But, as the Chiefs inevitably always do, they found a way to win, with Harrison Butker slotting a 51-yard field goal to win the game 26-25. Burrow looked much better in week 2, throwing for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns, however he still doesn’t look quite right. The Bengals are far from the finished product, but they get a great chance to gain some confidence this week.
Cue their opponent, the Washington Commanders, who come into week 3 off the back of a win over NFC East rivals the New York Giants. The Commanders managed to win the game 21-18, despite not scoring a touchdown, having to settle for 7 field goals to get the job done. Jayden Daniels did an ok job in his second start, throwing for 226 yards and rushing for 44, but he couldn’t get his team into the endzone, and the Commanders defence didn’t look like it took any positive steps, with Daniel Jones managing to throw for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brian Robinson Jr did the job for the Commanders all day, rushing for 133 yards on 17 carries, in a strong display.
Match Preview
These teams haven’t met since 2020, when the Commanders got the better of the Bengals 20-9 at Landover Field in Washington. I won’t be taking anything from a result from so long ago.
The Bengals were 7-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 7.5-point favourites on the openers. The Bengals are still a 7.5-point favourite, although the juice is showing on the Commanders, indicating this may drop to 7. I make the Bengals just 5.5-point favourites, so do see decent value on the Commanders on the other side of 7. I’m not a huge fan of betting the Commanders, however I will trust my numbers and bet the Commanders to keep this within a touchdown. If the Bengals smash them, fair play, but I haven’t seen enough from the Bengals in their two games this year to lay more than a touchdown.
As for the total, it was 47.5 on the lookahead, before bumping up to 48.5 on re-open. It has been bet back down to 47.5, and I am hoping this drops below the key of 47, and if it does, I will bet the over. These two teams’ defences have been poor to start the season, and there are several key injuries to both defences, whilst both offenses are basically at full strength. Keep an eye on that total.
As for a prop bet, I like the run games to go well for both teams, and with both starting running backs number sitting around the early 50’s, I could take a flyer on either. I will take Zack Moss though, as there is a far greater chance of the Bengals leading this matchup throughout, meaning the run game should be used heavily through the game. I’ll take the over.
Prop Bet: Zack Moss (over) 49.5 rushing yards - $1.87 at Unibet (1u)
Commanders +7.5
$1.89 (2 Units)
