An AFC East Blockbuster opens up Week 2 of the National Football League, as the Bills head to Miami to take on the Dolphins. Both teams managed come-from-behind victories in week 1, however there are more questions than answers as to where these teams sit in the list of the best teams in the league. This Thursday Night Football matchup will hopefully answer some of those questions.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all Prime-Time games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!
And if you haven’t already done so, be sure to check out our NFL Season Preview, with picks for Super Bowl, Divisional, and Award winners for the 2024/25 season!
NFL Week 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
Hard Rock Stadium, Friday 13th September, 10:15am (AEST)
Last Week
It was a slow start for the Dolphins offense last week, failing to score a point in the first quarter as Tua Tagovailoa made a couple of errant passes that were just out of range of his receivers. Eventually, he and his receivers started to get in sync, and in the run up to halftime the Dolphins started looking like the better team over the Jags. Whilst they struggled on the ground, the Dolphins managed 7.9 yards per pass play, didn’t turn the ball over, and managed a tick over 33 minutes of time in possession. Tua ended up throwing for 336 yards and a touchdown, whilst three receivers did most of the lifting, with Tyreek Hill (130 yards), Jaylen Waddle (108 yards), and De’Von Achane (75 yards) putting up over 300 yards through the air amongst them.
As for the Bills, they looked horrible out of the gates. After trailing 17-3 with just over two minutes remaining in the first half, Josh Allen took over the game, rushing in for his first touchdown of the season just before halftime, before leading another touchdown drive on the first possession of the second half to even things up at 17. The Bills led the rest of the way, and whilst the Cardinals had the ball at the end with a chance to win, they couldn’t get it done. Josh Allen was the star as always, throwing for 232 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst rushing for 39 yards and another 2 touchdowns. There are major concerns on defense for the Bills, allowing 28 points at home in week 1.
Injury Report
Miami Dolphins
Grayson Murphy / Cameron Goode / Cam Brown (LB) – OUT
Patrick McMorris (SAF) – OUT
Cam Smith (CB) – OUT
Odell Beckham Jr. / River Cracraft / Anthony Schwartz (WR) – OUT
Isaiah Wynn (OG) – OUT
Bradley Chubb (OLB) – OUT
Kion Smith (OT) – OUT
Liam Eichenberg (OT) – Questionable
Malik Washington (WR) – Questionable
Jaelen Phillips (OLB) – Questionable
Jalen Ramsey (CB) – Questionable
De’Von Achane / Raheem Mostert (RB) – Questionable
Buffalo Bills
Dawuane Smoot (DE) – OUT
Taron Johnson (CB) – OUT
Darrynton Evans (RB) – OUT
Matt Milano (OLB) – OUT
Travis Clayton / Tommy Doyle (OT) – OUT
Javon Solomon (DE) – Questionable
Ty Johnson (RB) – Questionable
Match Preview
There has been slight movement in the markets for this matchup, slowly moving towards the Dolphins as they opened as 1-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening at 1.5, to where they now sit as 2/2.5-point favourites less than 48 hours away from kick-off. I can see this number ticking up towards 3, however I’m sure the books are put off by making the Bills a 3-point underdog, so this number probably closes Dolphins -2.5. I make the Dolphins a 3.5-point favourite and see terrific value here in the favourite. If this gets to 3, I don’t want to bet it, so will be taking it now at 2.
As for the total, it was 51 on the lookahead, before re-opening at 50. It has kept dropping, to where it now sits at 49. I believe this is an overreaction to the lack of points scored in the opening Dolphins game in week 1 (40), with some positive regression for the Dolphins offense likely this week against a poor Bills defence who is down a couple of key starters. I’ll likely bet an over here, but it won’t be a best bet, as I’m concerned with the Bills being more run heavy this season.
These teams met twice last season, with the Bills coming away the victors in both games. The Bills smashed the Dolphins 48-20 as 3-point home favourites in week 4, before getting home 21-14 in week 18 as 2.5-point road favourites. The Bills have a crazy good recent record over the Dolphins, winning 11 of the past 12 matchups. Yes, this gives me some pause when it comes to my best bet of the Dolphins getting the win, but I’m just not convinced by the Bills this season. I believe the Dolphins will get the win here, and there will be question marks coming out of the game from the Bills.
For a prop, I’ll take Josh Allen to get over the line for a touchdown. With no obvious redzone target, Allen looks like he’s just going to shoulder the load for this goal line offense. The price isn’t great, but I like Allen to get another rushing TD this week.
Prop Bet: Josh Allen (Anytime TD) - $1.90 at OldGill (1u)
Dolphins -2
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
