Week 1 of the NFL delivered a whole bunch of fascinating games, but we only hit on 4/13 bets as none of my player props went particularly close. That returned $106 on $130 worth of bets. With another week of information under the belt, let’s try again on a nice 13-game Monday morning slate.
Tom Kelly is back with his NFL Week 2 preview and NFL betting tips for Monday's slate.
NFL Week 2 Betting Tips - Monday, September 19th 2022
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
The Dolphins looked okay last week under creative new coach Mike McDaniels, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle getting the ball in their hands early. The Ravens didn’t have to do much against the Jets, but the depth of their offensive weapons is a slight concern for a fairly well rounded team. I think the Dolphins are better than they’re getting credit for, so I’ll take Dolphins 1-13 at $3 on TAB.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
The Jets had a tough start against the Ravens, confirming that there isn’t a great deal to get excited about on either side of the ball. The Browns at least got a win, but had to resort to running the ball constantly to make up for the limitations of Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. I think the Browns win this win in a low-scoring game, but I’m going to double down on last week's David Njoku TD at $4.75 on TAB. Surely they look his way more often as the season goes on.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
These are two very interesting teams, battling to become relevant again while relying on flawed QBs and interesting offensive weapons. The Lions defense needs a lot of work, but they showed good offensive signs last week and should be able to continue that. That Commanders can keep up, so I’m taking Detroit -2.5/Over 47.5 at $3.50 on TAB.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars showed some signs that life with Urban Meyer is going to be better for Trevor Lawrence and his motley crew of weapons. The Colts had an embarrassing draw to start the season, but the signs were there that Matt Ryan can lead this team forward. With Michael Pittman out this week it’s hard to back a result, some I’m taking Travis Etienne for a TD at $3.25 on TAB after he lets a couple of great opportunities slip through his fingers last week.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
The Giants got a lot of praise this week for a team that needed the opposition kicker to miss as time elapsed…but Brian Daboll should add some spice to a previously bad offence. Plus, Saquon Barkley is back baby! Meanwhile the Panthers almost allowed Baker Mayfield to get revenge on his Browns, but they still look like a mediocre team who don’t do anything particularly well. I don’t love anything here, so will take a shot at Carolina Defense to score a TD at $12.50 on TAB, purely because Daniel Jones has been a turnover machine throughout his career so far.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
The Saints made hard work of beating the Falcons, but they showed enough to keep me viewing them as an underrated unit. The Buccs smothered the struggling Cowboys in primetime, but lost Chris Godwin in the process. If anything I think they’ll drop off slightly this season, but are still very strong. I think it will be a competitive game, but the value is on the side of the favourites, with Tampa Bay 1-13 at $2.25 on TAB my selection.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Patriots were terrible in week 1, confirming reports that their offense struggled mightily all preseason. I don’t see much improvement coming. The Steelers managed to upset the Bengals on the back of their defensive dominance, with the offense also looking very limited. I’m not sure how the Patriots can be favourites, so I’ll take Pittsburgh to win at $2.15 on TAB.
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
The Falcons actually looked functional with Marcus Mariota at QB, designing a scheme around plenty of rushing. They’re still bad defensively, but they might be able to compete most weeks. The Rams were blown away by the Bills, with accusations of a “Super Bowl hangover”. Matt Stafford looked to have very little time and locked onto Cooper Kupp as a result. This game could be closer than expected, but I’m wary of a Rams bounce back, so my pick is Marcus Mariota for a TD at $4.25 on TAB, as he’ll often function as the goal line back.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
The Seahawks already ticked off a big season goal by beating Russ Wilson at this new team, but there wasn’t a huge amount to like about their performance. The 49ers had an embarrassing loss, and Trey Lance struggled as the teams QB, but at least they have the excuse of a flooded field to lean on. The 49ers should win here, but with little value I’m taking Kenneth Walker for a TD at $5 on TAB, as the highly rated running back plays his first game for the Hawks.
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys
The Bengals will want to forget about Week 1 very quickly, after Joe Burrow turned the ball over repeatedly in a divisional loss. They should bounce back fast against a Cowboys unit that was already facing questions before Dak Prescott injured his hand, slated to miss 1-2 months. The Bengals 13+ at $2.65 at TAB seems a simple way to attack this game.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
The Broncos have been in the news all week after an odd coaching decision saw them lose by a point in Week 1, but their play lacked inspiration in general. They may just need to develop chemistry with their new QB, but it’s a worrying start. Meanwhile the Texans got a draw, and continue to show that they’re not THAT bad, despite lacking any big name players on either side of the ball. My pick is Rex Burkhead for a TD at $3 on TAB, after he handled the vast majority of the Texans rushing workload in Week 1 and looks to have the role for the foreseeable future.
Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders
Both these teams were blown away by strong opposition in Week 1, particularly the Cardinals who could not handle Pat Mahomes. With weapons missing and Kyler Murray needing to prove his big QB was justified, there is pressure for them to show more. The Raiders got plenty out of star recruit Davante Adams, but no-one else really got going and the defensive unit is middling at best. It’s a little surprising that the Raiders are such big favourites, so I’m going to take a shot at Arizona 1-13 at $3.40 on TAB.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
The prime-time game is a divisional matchup between two teams with big question marks this season. The Bears won a weather game last week, but still have to prove that they’ve given Justin Fields the support he needs to flourish at the QB position. The Packers were humbled by the Vikings, with the absence of Davante Adams glaringly obvious straight away as their group of receivers made a slew of mistakes, leading to an increasingly frustrated Aaron Rodgers being nullified. It’s a very hard game to predict, but the Bears 1-13 at $4.80 on TAB is enough value for me to take a chance on the Packers continuing to spin their wheels to start the season.
