And then there were two. After a somewhat underwhelming NFC Championship game, and a controversial AFC Championship game, we move on to the big dance, Super Bowl LVII. It’s a fitting way to end the season, with the two teams with the best records in the league going head-to-head, for a chance at lifting the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles will be looking to win their second Super Bowl (1-2 record), after overcoming Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Superbowl LII (41-33), while the Chiefs will look to hoist the trophy for the third time (2-2 record), and their second in 4 years.
We had a successful (lucky perhaps?) NFC Championship game, going 3-0 on our best bets, pushing our playoff record to 9-6 (+5.43u). It’s been a great couple of weeks in the playoffs, let’s finish strong, with one last edition of our NFL Best Bets for the Super Bowl.
Ben Bridge brings you his analysis and best bets below!
NFL 2022-23: Super Bowl LVII Preview & Betting Tips
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
State Farm Stadium, Glendale Arizona, Monday 10:30am AEDT
Kansas City Chiefs
The entire NFL community held their collective breaths in the Divisional round, as superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes limped out of a tackle with 2 ½ minutes left in the 1st quarter against the Jaguars. He struggled through the pain, willing his Chiefs onto the AFC Championship game.
All eyes were on Mahomes as he came out against the Bengals a week after suffering the high ankle sprain, and he didn’t disappoint. Whilst it was obvious Mahomes wasn’t as mobile as he usually is, he got it done, throwing for 326 yards and 2 touchdowns, as the Chiefs snuck by the Bengals 23-20. Despite all the plaudits on Mahomes, it was the Chiefs’ defence that stood up, sacking Burrow 5 times, whilst also creating two turnovers.
With two extra weeks of rest, you’d have to think Mahomes will be fitter than we saw him two weeks ago, but it’s asking a lot for him to be 100%. We will know quickly, with this Eagles pass rush as good as it gets.
The Chiefs have won 7-straight, and it seems as though they are peaking at just the right time.
Philadelphia Eagles
About a month ago, we were starting to wonder if maybe the Eagles had peaked too soon. We see it every year with teams, even the absolute best, going on early season win streaks, only for their form to peter out just in time for the playoffs. The Eagles weren’t helped, of course, by the untimely injury to Jalen Hurts in week 15. Hurts has since come back, leading the Eagles through the playoffs relatively unscathed, however there are still some question marks about his overall fitness. As with Mahomes, Fields has had a full two weeks to get right, but again as with Mahomes, I don’t believe he will be 100%.
It's hard to fully gauge the form of the Eagles in the playoffs, as they destroyed a Giants team that were considered over-achieving, whilst easily accounting for a 49ers team that played most of the game without a functioning quarterback. With 3 of their past 7 games coming against the Giants, the form line is impossible to quantify, however all you can say is that this team just wins. Can they do it one last time?
Injury Report
The Chiefs have been sweating on the health of several players for the past week, with three wide receivers on the injury report since their last game. Mecole Hardman has been ruled out, with running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire taking his place on the 53-man roster. Meanwhile, Juju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney remain questionable, however it sounds like both will play.
Outside line-backer Willie Gay Jr is also questionable, however will likely suit up, whilst top corner L’Jarius Sneed was taken off the injury report and will line-up against the Eagles’ receivers for the big game.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have a clean bill of health, and are expected to be fully fit heading into Super Bowl LVII.
Match Preview
Whilst the Super Bowl is the most bet on sporting event in the world, it is the one that I hesitate to bet on the most. Why is that? By this time of the season, the markets for the NFL are razor sharp, and this is the mother of all NFL markets. It is expected $16bn will be wagered on Super Bowl LVII, and whilst a whole bunch of that is on props and other markets, there’s also a whole lot of money bet into the spread and total of this game. I make the Eagles a 1.5-point favourite on a neutral site, and that is exactly the point spread in the market. After the Chiefs opened slight favourites after Championship Sunday, money quickly came in on the Eagles, pushing them to 1.5/2-point favourites, where they have remained. Whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see late money on the Chiefs, 1.5 seems a likely spread.
As for the total, it has been consistently bet up throughout the fortnight, and is now crossing the key total of 51. If I were to bet the total, I would side with the under, however I don’t see any value in the total either.
So, we go back to the well with the Eagles early. We have gone with this angle several times this year, most notably last week against the 49ers, and I’m going to stick with it for the Super Bowl. The Eagles 1st quarter record (8-4-7) is decent; however, this bet is more based on game state. The Eagles surely know they must start well, as if they are chasing early on, they will surely struggle to keep pace with the Chiefs and their offense. Their first half record (15-3-1) is extraordinary, and as mentioned earlier, for the Eagles to win this I believe they need to lead from the front.
This should be a fascinating Super Bowl. On one side, we have the Philadelphia Eagles, who have arguably the most talented roster 1-53 in the league. Their offensive and defensive lines are both top 5 in the league, and they have the weapons on offense to score on any defence in the league. On the other, we have the Kansas City Chiefs, playing their 3rd Super Bowl in four years. They have the best player in the NFL, and perhaps the most talented of all time, in quarterback Patrick Mahomes. They have Head Coach Andy Reid, who has been a top 5 Head Coach for years. And they have Travis Kelce, a man looking to put his stamp on when it’s all said and done, possibly the greatest career for a tight end in the history of the NFL. I can’t wait. Eagles 27-26 in an all-timer.
It's been a tremendous season of NFL, let’s just hope this Super Bowl can live up to the expectations. If you’ve followed along during the season, thanks for the support, and we look forward to bringing you all the NFL content you could hope for in season 2023/24.
Alternate Bet
Philadelphia Eagles (-0.5) – 1st quarter line - $2.25 @ NEDS (0.5u)
Philadelphia Eagles (-0.5) – 1st half line
$2 (1 Unit)
