Welcome to the Divisional Round of the 2021/22 NFL season. In my opinion, this is the most exciting weekend of Football each season. The top 8 teams in the NFL square off for the opportunity to reach a Conference Championship game. Time to dive in and pick some winners.
AFC Divisional Round Betting Tips
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Sunday 8:30am AEDT
The Bengals are coming off a tight 7-point victory over the Las Vegas Raiders in the Wild Card round last weekend, and whilst they got the job done, they were far from convincing. A highly controversial touchdown to Tyler Boyd in the middle of the second quarter proved critical to the victory.
Added to the average performance, the Bengals were banged up, particularly on the Defensive Line, losing DT Larry Ogunjobi for the season. Star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson also suffered a concussion but appears to be good to go this week.
These injuries would be significant on a normal week, but when you’re set to face the returning Derrick ‘King’ Henry, these defensive line issues could prove fatal.
Derrick Henry hasn’t played since week 8, when he suffered a broken foot, but up to that point he was on pace for another 2000-yard season. If he is somewhere near his best, he will prove extremely difficult to handle for this Bengals defensive front.
It’s been a terrific season for the Bengals, and Joe Burrow has shown himself to be an absolute star in this league, but I get the feeling their season is about to come to an end. The Titans are back to full health, and with the added rest of the bye last week should be fresh and ready to reach their second AFC Championship game in the last 3 years.
Titans coach Mike Vrabel will look to increase the use of his play action with the return of Henry, so look for both AJ Brown and Julio Jones to eat on the outside.
I bet the Titans -2.5 at open, however the line is now -3.5, which is still the bet.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, Monday 10:30am
The crowning glory of the 2021/22 NFL Divisional round, the de facto AFC Championship game comes a week early this year, as the surging Buffalo Bills head to Kansas City to take on the defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs.
In their last matchup in Week 5 this season, Josh Allen and the Bills travelled to Arrowhead and dominated the Chiefs, winning 38-20 in a result that was never in doubt. The Chiefs lost the turnover battle 4-0 and were never in it. This was a revenge spot for the Bills, who lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game last season 38-24.
Looking a bit closer at these two results, the Chiefs win was clearly in a higher leverage spot. The Bills caught the Chiefs early this season when they were struggling to get things going offensively and benefitted from the Chiefs 4 turnovers. The Chiefs are built for this time of the season, reaching the AFC Championship game each season that Patrick Mahomes has been the starter.
Last week, the Bills were super impressive. They decimated the New England Patriots, much to my chagrin, after picking the Patriots to keep it tight at +4.5. That bet was dead after the first quarter, and the Bills managed touchdowns on 7 straight drives to book their ticket to this matchup. The Chiefs, meanwhile, struggled for a good portion of the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers, trailing 7-0 before Running Back Jerick McKinnon got into the endzone to level things up 5 minutes into the second quarter. 10 minutes later it was 21-7 and the game was over.
The Bills win was more impressive, however in the NFL a team is never as good as they looked in a performance like that, and I believe the market has overreacted to the Bills performance last week. The Bills closed +3 against the Chiefs in Week 5, and more recently closed +3 at Tampa Bay in week 14. I can’t get to Bills +1.5, so Chiefs -1.5 and even Chiefs ML are the bets for me, with Mahomes again proving he is the King of the AFC jungle.
In all honesty though, just sit back an enjoy what could be the game of the year.
