Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Kensington on Saturday, May 2nd.
We're on the Kensington track for nine races today, with the track currently rated a Soft 6 and the rail out 2m.
Check out our preview and betting tips for every race below!
Kensington Racing Tips: Saturday, May 2nd
Best Bet: Race 2 - (7) Amitto
Best Value: Race 9 - (3) Commander
(1) Wild Ruler understandably comes up favourite here, having never been defeated in a race or a trial. He was the winner of the Inglis Nursery on debut back in December and he resumes today with two trials under the belt. I would say the form out of that Inglis race has been ordinary at best. We've only seen two horses come out of the race and win since, and the race was five months ago; one was at Canterbury and one at Wagga. Granted, Wild Ruler was better than all of them and has given no suggestion that he hasn't returned in as good, if not better order, but he carries 2.5kg more than any other horse in the field and it appears a decent race on paper. (7) Velorum has trialled well leading into today and the stable have a good record here at Kensington, with a 24% strike rate in the last 12 months. Bowman takes the ride and he's had seven rides for five top-two finishes for the stable this season. The map is tricky with the wide draw, but I'll be taking the $6.00 on offer. John O'Shea's debutant (11) Newsreader appeals as the value at $12 and I'm pretty keen to have a crack at her. She's only had the one trial, where she settled back in the field and caught the eye making ground down the outside. She was given a click up to do so, but I thought she extended quite nicely. James McDonald rode her in that trial but can't make the 54kg weight today so Brenton Avdulla takes the ride. I think she's right in this at double figure odds. (3) Able Hill trialled well but two of the horses that finished in front of him could only manage 2nd and 3rd in a race at Kembla when they stepped out after the trial. (4) Casesar's Palace makes his debut with two trials under the belt. The first of them was back in September and was ordinary, but his latest one two weeks ago was quite good and Nash is an eye-catching booking. (6) Private Agent bolted in on debut at Wagga, saluting by 4.4L. Two horses have already come out of that race and won since, and the race is only four weeks old, which is a really good sign for the form.
Value: (11) Newsreader $12
Competitive race. (7) Amitto goes on top. I was really impressed with the three-year-old filly's victory last start at Warwick Farm, where she sat out the back and then speared home along the inside to pick them up quickly in the straight. She's now finished in the top two in seven of her eight career starts. She's clearly progressive, she handles all surfaces, should relish the step up to 1800m and the stable go particularly well on the Kensington track. JMac would be riding her except he can't make the 54kg. (1) Canasta surprised me by winning over 1550m here last start. I thought he'd need another run and more distance, but he used his inside draw to get a soft run and win well. He's only going to improve with the rise in trip here. It's a different race shape for him today with barrier 10, which means he'll probably have to sit outside the leader rather than get a suck run on the rail, but he won third up last prep and certainly isn't without hope at $6.00, which looks a decent price. (2) Yonkers was caught wide early in the race last start, but battled on well to run 3rd. He backs up qucikly this week but does drop 200m in distance which is a negative. The positive is he draws ideally and looks to find a beautiful spot one off the rail in midfield. (3) Welsh Legend won last weekend...just. That was her second career win from 19 starts, and she nearly gave it up. She's run 2nd in both starts at the track and distance and she will be right around the mark again. (5) New Arrangement keeping battling away looking for his first win in Australia. I was with him last start and thought he had excuses in his earlier two runs but I'm struggling to keep making excuses for him. JMac is off today and Nash goes on. I'm jumping off so he'll probably win.
(8) Foxie La Belle was absolutely murdered last start in a similar race at Royal Randwick. She was well-backed on that occasion from about $15 into $7.50, but never got a crack at them from barrier 1, held up basically the entire straight. Prior to that she was caught three-wide the trip at Kembla when defeated 0.6L. If you go back even further and look at her first up run in a Class 2 Highway at Randwick, she was beaten 1.7L after being caught about seven-wide! She's absolutely flying and but for bad luck, she would have won more than one race. It's not going to be easy from barrier 16 here, she'll likely be a long way back, but as I mentioned, she was well-backed in the same race as both (2) Toro Toro and (3) Jailbreak last start, but never had a chance. I'm happy to give her another crack here with $8.50 on offer. (9) Laughing Or Crying is worth throwing in at $17 too. He flew home first up at Wagga and has a 2nd at the track and distance to his name.
There is a crazy amount of speed in this race. Eight of the 10 runners engaged have either led or sat outside the leader in their career. (5) Fituese resumes from a spell today and she could arguably be undefeated from five career starts had she had a bit more luck in her two defeats. Where he gets to from barrier 12 today is a bit of a query as she tends to race somewhere near the pace. But I'd be surprised if they didn't just let the speed go and try to tuck in behind it. Her two trials this time in have both been very good and she should go very close first up here. (9) L'cosmo has placed in 10 of her 11 career starts but has only managed one win. She was heavily backed first up and unlucky not to get the money, sitting three-wide the trip before going down by a nose. She draws soft in barrier 2 today and with any luck gives this a big shake. (2) Mansa Musa led all the way first up last prep and he's won two of his three fresh runs. The concern for him is the speed engaged, which is the case for a number of others too. (10) Axe is one of those who tends to lead and with Nash on they will be aggressive. He's probably better than a $9.00 chance afte a good first up win. Nash has a great strike rate for Bjorn Baker so his booking here is notable.
(5) Dirty Work saluted for us last start over this track and distance and I'll stick with him again today. His last two starts at the track and distance have been wins and he gets Bowman on today taking over from Tommy Berry. He does draw a bit tricky in barrier 10 but there looks a fair bit of speed on so hopefully he can tuck in behind and slot in midfield. (7) November Man looms as a strong place chance at $12/$3.50. He's only won once first up previously and comes into this with just one trial under the belt, but he's placed in eight of his 10 starts at the track and will relish a strong tempo on up front. (3) Kylease returns from a spell with two trial wins under the belt and she'll be one of those vying for the lead up front. She goes well on any ground so that's a positive given we ma face a wet track. Her only start on the track was a win and if she's at 100% she'll be there for a long way. I'm expecting a strong market move for (10) Cardiff, who is currently $7.00. He was backed as if unbeatable first up, which was his first start as a gelding, but he raced awfully fresh when held up behind runners. Don't be surprised to see them fire him straight to the front today (even more pace) to just let him run.
Value: (7) November Man $12
I was originally keen on Feather here but she's been balloted out. (8) Bring The Ransom won first up at Warwick Farm on the heavy ground following two good trials leading in. She'll handle any track conditions and the slight step up to 1300m will help. There's a slight query over the form given the 2nd horse failed during the week, but I'll take $5.50 to find out. (12) Laila De Vega was the horse that beat My Demetra last start and she's a chance again. It takes her a couple of runs before she comes good, as she demonstrated when winning that race third up last start. The query for them both is dropping from 1400m to 1300m. (5) Rocha Clock is the favourite. She was well-supported to beat Rubisaki first up but punctured after leading and finished 6.5L off the winner. The Rubisaki form is seriously hot and the market thought she was a genuine chance that day, so you have to respect her SP despite the poor showing. Expect them to ride her cold from the wide gate today, rather than go forward. (1) So Taken is the class runner but will have to win with 60kg from a wide draw.
Value: (12) Laila De Vega $20
(8) Bring The Ransom
$5.50
Deep race. (8) Hightail has some solid form behind him, with a 4th behind Alligator Blood back in January the pick of it, but I thought his recent trial was dead ordinary. He comes to the race with just that one trial as opposed to the two trials he normally has before a first up run, so there's every chance it was just to blow the cobwebs out and he will improve plenty from it, but I would have liked to have seen him go much better than he did. He was under the whip and treading water up to the line so I have to be against him here today. (9) Hilo is a horse I've been with all prep but I'm jumping off today. There's nothing really wrong with his form - in fact it looks pretty strong with Dawn Passage and Indy Car mixed in there, but I just can't get him any shorter than he is. He bolted in first up this prep over track and distance but he drops from 1400m back to 1250m today which is always a concern for me. (3) Improvement looks an each way bet after a big first up run, where she went down by 0.2L carrying 59.5kg from barrier 14. She's never finished out of the top two from three attempts when second up from a spell and she draws nicely in barrier 6 today. She handles all going so she ticks plenty of boxes. She's just found it hard to get her nose in front in recent preps. JMac rode her first up but he sticks with (5) Trumbull who is also a bet for me here at $7.50. He doesn't get many wrong but he slaughtered him last start, caught five-wide the trip at Randwick. Prior to that Trumbull blew the start by 3L at Newcastle, so you can forgive his past two starts. First up he won over 1200m on the course proper at Randwick and that form has stacked up. He's worth another chance today at each way odds and I'm sure JMac will do a better job this time around. (4) Into The Abyss is a scary horse - at her best she is good enough, it's just whether she's sharp enough first up. Nash rides at about 30% for John Thompson so the fact he's on first up is a good sign.
Also backing: (3) Improvement $6.50
I was pretty keen on (6) Outrageous first up and I'll stick with him second up today after he ran well fresh. He was beaten 2L into 3d but he settled further back than anticipated and recorded the best final 800m of the race. He's drawn wide again today but he's won two from four when second up and this looks a good race for him. (12) Bandersnatch is the horse to beat. He's a three-year-old taking on the older horses. He was favourite last week before being scratched at the barriers with a cut on one of his legs, but he shows up here a week later. He's got four wins from eight starts, has won on good, soft and heavy ground, won his only start here by 3L and provided he's taken no harm from last week's incident, he'll be very hard to beat. (3) Phaistos was chinned first up and rates highly but will have to overcome barrier 15 with 59.5kg. (5) Nicci's Gold is a blowout chance if the track is soft.
There is a few real pretenders involved here. (9) Agassi is just about the biggest of them. He's only managed two wins from 17 career starts and I'm not sure he'll get a better chance to win than what he did last start, and he still managed to run 2nd, despite being completely blessed in the run. He'll get the same run today from barrier 4 and he's finished in the top two in all three starts at the track and distance, so he'll be right around the mark again, but he'll probably find a way to get beat. (10) Word For Word is next in the pretender stakes. She's run 4th in both starts this prep; in fact, she's never finished further back than 4th in her career, but she's only managed one win along the way. She gets a soft track which helps her, and James McDonald sticks with her, so she'll be right around the mark, but again she finds it hard to win. (6) Juventus did a good job to win at this track last start, after a few ordinary steering jobs in his first few starts this prep. He was blessed in the run last start and had every right to win the race, which he did convincingly. No real knock on him except for the fact he draws a bit sticky in barrier 10. That leaves me with (13) California Salto on top at $4.80. She's ready to do something third up now. She was good first up at Hawkesbury, didn't get a great amount go her way in the Carr Stakes at G3 level last start, and the form is pretty hot from that race. Down in grade, up in distance, drawn well and down on the minimum. Looks a good formula. The complete blow out in the race, and the horse you can't let go around $31, is (3) Commander. He went too quick in front last start and pulled up 2/5 lame. But it's not unlike him to rapidly improve at his third run back from a break after two shockers. Look back to last prep and you'll see he was beaten 9L and 15L in his first two runs back, before winning the MTC Guineas at Wagga third up. He's won over this track and distance and looks value at the odds.
Value: (3) Commander $31
(13) California Salto
$4.80
