Matchday 26 of the English Premier League season has a blockbuster weekend of football lined up, with three top nine matchups on display. Jack Tobin has you covered with his best bets below, and good luck to everyone following!
EPL 2024-25: Matchday 26 Preview & Betting Tips
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Villa Park, Sunday 23rd February, 4:30am AEDT
It’s a battle of sixth versus ninth as Chelsea and Aston Villa look to bounce back amidst some patchy form in recent weeks. After being second place earlier in the season, Chelsea have won only two of their last nine games after a 3-0 defeat against Brighton on Matchday 25. After being amongst the top four earlier in the season, Villa have fallen off a cliff since November, with a 4-5-7 record across their last sixteen matches in the Premier League. Unai Emery’s side were held to a 1-1 draw by 18th placed Ipswich Town, who were down to ten men for the final 50 minutes of the game.
Aston Villa have struggled in the front third this season, ranking thirteenth for goals in season 2024/25. It’s a big step back after ranking as the sixth most prolific side in front of goal last season. Chelsea have had no such issue in attack this season, scoring 47 goals including three in a 3-0 win over Villa back in December. Another concern for Aston Villa is their defensive drop off sitting as the 14th ranked defence this season, after ranking 9th last year.
Both sides have shown they have a high ceiling this season, however they have also shown they are inconsistent outfits. One element that has been consistent for both sides, is being involved in high scoring games. Three of Chelsea’s last five games have seen over 3.5 total goals, while the other two games had 3 total goals scored. Nine of Aston Villa’s games this season have produced over 3.5 total goals, with another seven games producing 3 total goals. There should be plenty of goals in store for this fixture.
Total Goals Over 3.5
$2.25 (1 Unit)
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest
St James’ Park, Monday 24th February, 1:00am AEDT
Nottingham Forest will be looking to secure their spot in third place, when they travel to St James’ Park to take on Newcastle. Two straight losses have cost Newcastle a chance to be in the top four, dropping to seventh place on the table. The Magpies are only three points away from fourth spot, so a win in this clash will well and truly agave them in the hunt for a spot in the top four. Forest’s 2-1 defeat to Fulham was their second loss in their last three games, being completely outplayed at Craven Cottage, losing the shot count 24-8.
An alarming issue for Nottingham Forest has been their struggles in the back third, conceding nine goals in their last four games. It’s a big drop off from only conceding 20 goals across the first 21 games of the season, and it’s something that Newcastle will be looking to expose. The Magpies have scored 42 goals this season to be the 8th highest scoring team in the league, and will give Forest plenty of issues if their defensive trend continues.
Since Nottingham Forest’s promotion to the top flight in 2022, Newcastle have certainly had the better of this matchup. Eddie Howe’s side have won four of the five league fixtures between the two teams, including a 3-1 win earlier this season. Forest have struggled away from the City Ground over the last month, losing their last three away fixtures. Newcastle will edge out Nottingham Forest in a tight encounter at St James’ Park.
Newcastle to Win
$1.80 (1 Unit)
Manchester City vs Liverpool
Etihad Stadium, Monday 24th February, 3:30am AEDT
The two best teams of the past seven years continue their rivalry, but probably in the lowest stakes match played between the two clubs over that period. League leaders Liverpool are seventeen points ahead of fourth placed Manchester City, and eight points clear of second placed Arsenal. The Reds have had an up and down fortnight, with a draw against Everton last week, they then bounced back by grinding out a 2-1 win over Wolverhampton on Matchday 25. However, they dropped points again in a 2-2 draw against Aston Villa on Thursday morning, and their depth will be tested with the Matchday 26 fixture, their fourth game in eleven days.
There’s no secret to the Reds success this season, they’re the number one ranked attacking team (60 goals), the number two ranked defence (26 goals conceded) and ranked third for possession (57.5%). They excel in all three facets per game, which has been on display in a consistent season where they have only lost once from 26 games and are currently on a 22-game unbeaten run in the Premier League. Only a dramatic collapse stands between themselves and their first league title in five years.
Liverpool were comfortable winners when these sides met back in December, with City struggling to deal with the Reds pressure in their defensive third. Unlike the last four seasons, Pep Guardiola’s side have struggled against the best teams in the league, with just one win from four games against the current top four. Liverpool’s will be eager to improve after two draws in their last three games, and will be too strong for City.
Liverpool to Win
$2.25 (2 Units)
