Emirates Stakes Day Preview
When: Saturday
Where: Flemington, Melbourne
Coverage: Channel 7
Emirates Stakes Day is this Saturday to round out the Melbourne Cup Carnival. It’s been a tough week for punters with some mixed results as plenty of favourites have gone under. Hopefully we can find a couple of winners this weekend to redeem ourselves!
We’re going to preview the two Group 1 races – the Darley Classic and the Emirates Stakes.
Darley Classic - Race 6
A cracking race on paper with the world’s best sprinters going down the Flemington straight over 1,200 metres under weight-for-age conditions. All of these sprinters have proven themselves, and it’s a true test of speed without the intricacies of the bend to contend with.
We were bullish on Buffering ($21 at Betfair) in the Manikato around the tight Moonee Valley track, but giving up the lead to Lankan Rupee wasn’t ideal and it was too much to overcome. Buffering also pulled up sore from that race, so happy to take him on here despite his victory here last year and the very generous price on offer.
Lankan Rupee ($5.50 at BetEasy) got the win in the Manikato but had to work for it, impressively crossing the field from the outside and leading all the way to hang on for a tough victory. Lankan Rupee will most definitely enjoy the straight and wide expanses of Flemington where he dominated in the Autumn and looks great value.
The favourite is the new horse on the scene in Chautauqua ($2.30 at Ladbrokes) who was ultra-impressive in victories in the G3 Bobby Lewis and the G2 Gilgai Stakes. Most certainly worthy of being considered a contender but this will be the toughest test for Chautauqua on a very big stage. All things considered, the price seems very short.
Another to consider is Ireland’s top sprinter in Slade Power ($7.50 at Bet365). He’s coming off two G1 victories in Ireland but this might be a tough ask in his Australian debut. He’s also notoriously feisty in the barriers and had a mishap in a jump out at Flemington just last week. Happy to take on.
Those looking for a bit more value might like to consider Rebel Dane ($21 at Betfair) who has raced very well without luck recently and might enjoy some more space at Flemington. Famous Shamus ($34 at Betfair) will also enjoy some room to move after copping interference in a luckless run in the Manikato.
Verdict: There’s a lot to like about the favourite, but the price is very short, so we’re happy to take the terrific value offered on Lankan Rupee. There’s a reason why he’s considered one of the world’s elite sprinters. His win in the Manikato wasn’t flashy, but riding out front was a strategy that was simply required for that race to combat Buffering at Moonee Valley. He did what he had to do, now they'll have to beat him on his terms. He won't have to burst to the front this time around from a good barrier, he can pace the race and prove once again that he’s the best sprinter in the country.
1st Lankan Rupee ($5.50 at BetEasy)
2nd Chautauqua
3rd Rebel Dane
4th Famous Shamus
Emirates Stakes - Race 7
The people’s horse, The Cleaner ($14 at Ladbrokes), is back in Melbourne for another shot at a Group 1 and connections are confident. He’s back to his pet distance of the mile and this field is not the same quality of the Cox Plate. He worked far too hard at the start of that race which proved costly late, but he won’t have that problem from barrier 6 on Saturday. We’re getting a great price for a consistent horse that will always give you a chance from the front.
Contributer ($5.50 at Betfair) is a classy European runner who got a nice run to win the G3 David Jones Cup on his Australian debut three weeks ago, beating a couple of handy horses in Noble Predictor and Signoff. That run will certainly help the preparation, but does seem better suited to longer distances than the mile.
Hooked ($7.50 at Ladbrokes) has been in superb form with a dominant win in the G2 Crystal Mile. He led from start to finish that day, but that won’t be the case here with The Cleaner setting a torrid pace out front. His third place in the G1 Epson was equally as impressive, topped only by the class of He’s Your Man and Royal Descent.
Other chances include Lucky Hustler ($7.50 at Centrebet) who was impressive in the G3 Moonga Stakes but will need some luck having drawn barrier 15, and Hucklebuck ($11.50 at Betfair) who had a strong win in the G3 Yellowglen Stakes on Saturday. Hucklebuck has drawn a nice gate in barrier 5, but this is only the third attempt at the mile and up in class to WFA G1 for the first time might be too much to overcome.
The value bet of the race for us is Desert Jeuney ($26 at Ladbrokes). She finished third in her last 3 races, including the G1 Toorak at huge odds, and also the G2 Crystal Mile, beaten by Hooked and Bull Point who she meets again here. She was blocked for a run that day and drops a massive 5.5kgs from that run which is huge. Has drawn badly in barrier 17 is the big negative, but could be a great outside chance.
Verdict: Some great chances in a very open race. The Cleaner could steal it and looks a great each-way option, while Desert Jeuney is a great roughie. However I feel that Hooked will take the sit in prime spot behind The Cleaner and get a nice drag into the run home with the win.
1st Hooked ($7.50 at Ladbrokes)
2nd The Cleaner
3rd Desert Jeuney
4th Contributer
Take note: The above tips are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
