Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Eagle Farm on Saturday, June 13th.
The Group 1 racing in Brisbane is over but we've got another weekend of quality racing at Eagle Farm to get stuck into, with six black-type races on the nine-race card.
The track is rated a Good 4, but there is some rain predicted which causes a bit of uncertainty over how the track will play. The rail is out 5 meters.
Find Tim Geers' preview and betting tips below!
Eagle Farm Racing Tips: Saturday, June 13th
Best Bet: Race 7 - (4) Celestial Falls
Best Value: Race 3 - (16) Fairy Me Home
Race 1
(7) Plenty is airborne in Brisbane, winning his past three starts for the new stable. He's undefeated here at Eagle Farm and should get a similar run from barrier 2 to what he's got in his past two wins. I'd rather be with a horse that apparently now knows how to win rather than the favourite, who finds it hard to win despite being around the mark. That favourite is (2) Thy Kingdom Come, who should be right in the finish on current form. He's been beaten a nose in his past two starts and looks to get every chance from barrier 1. (5) Elixir isn't hopeless. He ran 3rd behind Plenty last start, and Plenty then came out and won again. He gets a 4.5kg weight swing on Plenty for a 0.6L defeat when they last met, so off that alone he should be right around the mark. He's also placed in six of his seven starts at the track. $7.50/$2.50 is a very fair price for him.
Race 2
Very difficult race to assess. I'll be playing two at each way odds here. (2) Winter Passage is the first of those and he's a $10 chance. She won first up at the Sunshine Coast before failing last start at the Gold Coast. She has a good third up record with two wins and two placings from four starts and she draws softly in barrier 2 here. Ryan Maloney rode her first up and he's got a lethal record with Stuart Kendrick, so the fact he isn't on today is a query but at the odds I'll have something small. My top pick in the race will be (9) Amicitia though, and she's a $9.00 chance. She represents Tony Gollan and Jim Byrne and comes into this off a last-start win at Doomben. All of her runs this prep have been meritorious and even though she's been unplaced in two starts here at Eagle Farm, I feel like she will appreciate the big straight. There's been three subsequent winners out of her last-start win a month ago, so the form is clearly pretty good, and I think she's a good bet here at the odds.
Value: (2) Winter Passage $10
Race 3
Unfortunately Tatcee has been scratched this morning and that was my best value of the day. With her out, I'll go with her stablemate (16) Fairy Me Home on top. He's running consistently and comes into this off back-to-back 2nds at the Gold Coast. He gets the plumb draw in barrier 4 and can run well at double figure odds. He struggles to win but he's placed in seven of his past nine starts. At $17 he's worth an each way bet. (5) Wapiti has obvious claims, winning at the Gold Coast last start, and his form prior was also good. But his trainer is none from 34 at Eagle Farm this season. (13) Joymaker comes out of that same race as Fairy Me Home and can run well too.
Race 4
Pretty keen to stick wtih (6) Supremo who I had something on in Sydney on debut, where he was well-beaten by Anders. Anders brought the Peltzer form line to the race and that's the best juvenile form in the country at the moment, and he was a $6.50 chance to win that race. I think the heavy track may have been his undoing on debut but back onto a firmer deck here should bring about a performance closer to what we saw at the trials. Willing to give him another chance, especially with $14 available. (2) Ready For Magic ran well first up and we saw him bolt in second up last prep, so he should improve and run well. (8) Plutocrat was well supported at huge odds last start and nearly pulled off the little plunge. That was a return to the kind of form we saw from him on debut, so maybe he just needed that first up run behind Gotta Kiss. He can feature.
Race 5
A 2400m with literally half the field made up of Waller runners. We saw him produce the first six across the line here two weeks ago in the 2000m race, and the three best backed runners from his stable ran the trifecta. So my advice would be sit back until the last five minutes of betting and then see where the money goes and follow it! In terms of predicting the winner, it's very hard in situations like this, but we'll give it a crack. (4) Brimham Rocks gets Ryan Maloney on board and he's jumped off another Waller runner in the race to ride this one, so there's probably a reason behind that. He rode a winner for Waller last weekend and he has about a 25% strike rate when riding for him, so fair chance he's on one of the stable's best chances. He draws barrier 1 so should get a very soft run and we saw him go close in the Bendigo Cup over this distance last prep. Looks hard to beat on best form. (5) Black On Gold is the other Waller runner I'll be backing. He's been good in his two runs back from a spell and has a decent third up record. Draws well, so should sit closer and should be around the mark. (1) Shraaoh should be ready to do something third up.
Value: (5) Black On Gold $8.50
Race 6
This is basically a two or three horse race in my mind, at least I'm betting as if it is. (2) Scallopini and (8) Right Or Wrong are the only two horses I'm really interested in, while I can make a little case for (5) Chapter And Verse. Scallopini resumed with a win first up at Doomben over 1100m. He comes to Eagle Farm second up today and he's never finished out of the placings from five starts over the track and distance. He's got a decent record second up, though I would say his first up record is better. He draws wide so is likely to get back, but he looks the right favourite and is hard to beat. Right Or Wrong looks a huge price at $13. He was second up from an 82-week break last start when he won a Class 6 at Doomben. You'd think there is probably still some improvement to come given how long he had off the track. He ran 2nd to Trekking back in 2018, fair to say that's turned out to be reasonable form. He looks a terrific chance at each way odds. Chapter And Verse was terrible first up but that was in G2 company and he now drops back to Listed grade. He's got a terrific record when second up from a spell, with three wins from five starts. He won a G3 race second up last prep at Doomben. Give him another go at $14. You could play level stakes on those three so if Scallopini wins you get a bit better than money back.
Value: (5) Chapter And Verse $14
Race 7
Good little race. (2) Vanna Girl has only finished out of the top two once from nine career starts, and that includes six wins. She's won her past three and her only start at Eagle Farm was a 1.5L win. But I'm tipping against her again today. I was against her last start when I tipped (4) Celestial Falls to beat her, and I'm going to tip Celestial Falls to beat her again today. As impressive as Vanna Girl was running down Celestial Falls last start, there's a few little things she will need to overcome again today. She's very deep into her preparation now and the stable were thinking of sending her for a spell after her last start, but they butter up again here. She draws barrier 13 so she's going to be right out the back once again and will need to be at her best again to run down Celestial Falls. Celestial Falls comes into this third up now, so she should be peaking fitness-wise, and the step up to 1800m is right up her alley. Her best win was over 1800m at Flemington, and Vanna Girl is yet to be tested at this distance. The map also plays right into the hands of Celestial Falls, who won't have to do any work from barrier 4 and should find a spot on speed. She had to do a bit of work early last start but that won't be the case here. Then you have to consider the rain. We know Celestial Falls handles the wet but all nine of Vanna Girl's races have been on good ground, so if the rain does come, that's another little unknown. Vanna Girl will be giving Celestial Falls a big head start, and this might just be the race where she can't make up the ground. (9) Sky Horse is the horse I'll be saving on at $6.00. Trained by Maher/Eustace with Ryan Maloney in the saddle, he ran 4th to Supergiant and Ballistic Boy last start. Drawn well and can't be dismissed. (1) Florent will be thereabouts.
(4) Celestial Falls
$4.40
Race 8
(4) Niccanova looks awfully hard to beat here and is probably a bit stiff not to be the best bet of the day. His two runs back from a spell have been enormous, especially his run in defeat in last weekend's Stradbroke, where he flew home to be beaten less than 0.5L. He comes into this on the quick back-up and steps up to 1600m, a distance he's won at three times in the past. Any rain won't affect him at all as he loves the wet, and provided he gets a decent run from barrier 12, he looks quite clearly the one to beat. (3) Military Zone has been good in two runs back and should run well again, (13) La Pulga is flying, while (15) Ella Divine isn't the worst place bet at $34 the drum. She's had five starts here at Eagle Farm for five 2nd placings.
Race 9
Wide-open race this, with plenty of queries over many runners at the top of the market. I'm happy to take on the three at the top of the market - Winter Bride, Irithea and Outback Barbie - which leaves us with a bit of value. (5) Baccarat Baby is honest and should be right around the mark again. She's been beaten a nose in all three starts this preparation. David Vandyke has a 27% strike rate here at Eagle Farm and this is his only runner of the day. She's drawn a bit awkward but she's a decent bet at $8.50. (14) Romani Girl should be ready to do something now. She's had two runs back from a spell and she's won two of her three starts when third up, so she should be peaking. Waller trains and Jake Bayliss rides, so $23 looks a good price. (16) Jen Rules has run well all prep but just continues to find one or two too good. Her record at this distance has previously been poor but the way she's racing, she probably will appreciate some more ground. Expect to see her more forward in the run from barrier 2. She's a 14 chance. Something on all three of those.
Value: (14) Romani Girl $23 & (16) Jen Rules $14
