Round 1 of the 2024 AFL season continues on Friday night with a blockbuster clash between Collingwood and Sydney at the MCG. It should be another cracking contest and as always, we have you covered with our full match preview, best bet, and Same Game Multi!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs Sydney
Friday 7:50pm AEDT, March 15th, MCG
Unable to get their premiership defence off to a winning start in Opening Round, Collingwood will return home to the MCG on Friday night to unveil their 2023 flag in front of a packed house. The Magpies are coming off a 32-point defeat against the Giants in a game where they were thoroughly outplayed. The end score line (82-114) was a touch flattering for the reigning premiers after they kicked a couple of late consolation goals in the fourth quarter.
The Magpies were beaten in a couple of the key statistics including contested possessions (123-134), marks inside 50 (9-13), and contested marks (4-9). However, they also led in a couple of key markers such as inside 50’s (60-53), clearances (40-39), and scoring shots (27-24), so the performance was far from diabolical.
On a positive note, the Magpies have a relatively clean bill of health with only a couple of key personnel missing. Jeremy Howe is on the cusp of a return, and Nathan Murphy has returned to full contact training after suffering from a couple of nasty concussions.
In contrast to their Round 1 opponents, Sydney got their 2024 campaign off to a terrific start with a strong 22-point win against the Demons in Opening Round (86-64). The Swans led that game from wire to wire and managed to kick away in the fourth quarter where they outscored the Demons by 20 points (34-14).
The Swans were under the pump at stages during the first half of their Opening Round win but were by far the better team after the main break. They ended up dominating the midfield battle with +11 clearances (45-34), +8 hitouts (46-38), as well as slightly edging the Demons in both contested and uncontested possessions.
The Swans are dealing with a couple of injuries to key players who likely won’t be returning before their Round 5 bye. All of Luke Parker, Callum Mills, and Taylor Adams are all unavailable as per the official AFL injury list. On a positive note, Matt Roberts earned Rising Star honours in Opening Round in his new role off half back.
Match prediction: These clubs only met once in 2023 and it was the Magpies who came back from a eight-point half time deficit to eventually win comfortably by 29 points at the MCG (77-48). The home team has now prevailed in each of the last five meetings between these teams.
The Swans have shortened a lot in the H2H market on the back of last weekend’s results, although I do believe there’s been a bit of an overreaction. The Magpies only need to clean up a couple of things from last weekend’s loss, and you can expect them to be hungry to avoid slipping to 0-2. With that said, I’m happy to back the Magpies to cover the small spread for a single unit.
Collingwood -10.5
$1.92 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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Jordan De Goey 25+ Disposals – Like most of the Magpies, De Goey was a bit disappointing last week with 21 disposals. Regardless, he’s a big game player and is expected to spend almost all his time in the midfield this year. I like him in the disposal markets in this one.
Nick Blakey 20+ Disposals – Lloyd has been pushed further up the ground and Blakey should be a beneficiary of that with more touches off half back. He had 26 last week and should get to 20 here.
Isaac Heeney 20+ Disposals – With Adams, Mills, and Parker out, Heeney is getting plenty of midfield time. He had 14 centre bounce attendances last game and racked up 26 touches.
SGM Odds: $4.60 at BoomBet
