Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Canterbury on Wednesday, August 5th.
We're on another heavy track in Sydney for a seven-race card of midweek metro racing, with the rail in the 3m position today. Typically, runners positioned on the rail in the run have been advantaged throughout the Winter at Canterbury so we'll be looking for those runners again today.
Find Tim Geers' preview and betting tips for today's meeting below!
Canterbury Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 5th
Best Bet: Race 2 – (6) Tochi
Best Value: Race 3 – (12) Sweet Anna
The speedmap makes things interesting here. (3) Tectonicus has been a drifter in his past two starts and has been caught back and wide without cover on each occasion. The stable has no notified stewards that the horse will be ridden more forward today, which is the right thing to do given the way Canterbury has been playing recently. The map has him settling third but it wouldn’t shock me if they went straight to the front and found the rail. If he does that, he’ll be hard to run down. (2) Solar Apex is likely the best horse in the field but barrier 7 makes it tough. He ran very well on debut when heavily supported, running on strongly from last to be beaten less than half-a-length. He’ll be somewhere out the back again but he looks well and truly up to this grade and JMac jumps straight on for Waller. I’d expect him to go back and hug the rail. He’s the horse to beat.
Pretty keen on (6) Tochi here. He was truckloaded in betting last start but was nabbed right on the line. It appears he’s struck full fitness and is back in form now, and when he found form last preparation, he held it for three straight wins. He’s undefeated over this distance, two of which have come at this track, he handles the wet ground, should find the rail and lead from barrier 2, and will take a power of beating from there. Expecting him to start much shorter than $4.00. (8) Misty Summer draws awkwardly in barrier 7 but she comes into this in good form, having won two of her past three starts. She failed over 2400m at Warwick Farm two starts ago but forgive her for that, she was caught wide without cover for the first 800m of the race. The speedmap looks awkward for her but there could be some speed in the race which will help her. JMac takes the ride on (4) Dalmatia Prince which is a big plus, but he’ll have to sit outside the leader today. (5) Controlthewitness is in good form but won’t lead, and Kris Lees tends to struggle at Canterbury, while the same can be said for John Sargent who saddles up (1) Home Ground. Good bet on Tochi, saving on Misty Summer.
Big field here and we could see this run at a decent tempo. It’s a very competitive field with a number of winning chances. The barrier draw for (13) Tiny is awful but her run on debut was very good, even though it says in the form guide she was beaten 4.9L. That was here at Canterbury, where she jumped slowly, settled last and had to come widest in the straight. She comes into barrier 9 after scratchings and is likely to be wide in the straight again, but if the tempo sets it up for her, it may be that she’s able to round them up. (12) Sweet Anna looks value at $34. She was well-beaten on debut back in March but her recent trial at Hawkesbury was much more promising than anything she showed leading into her debut. They come straight to the midweeks off that trial and John Thompson has a very good record with his runners at Canterbury. She comes into barrier 1 after scratchings and the rail is typically the place to be, so at those odds I have to be on. (5) Magic Ruler comes up with a tricky draw but has been good in his first two career starts, while (4) Hurt Money was beaten by a smart one on debut at Gosford and could end up box seating on the speedmap.
Value: (12) Sweet Anna $26
(3) Express Princess can find the lead here and if she does that, she could be pretty hard to beat. She comes off a win at Kembla where the form is questionable, but she’s undefeated on heavy ground and if she finds the rail, it’s going to be a big help. Third up, up to 1550m, she can go well at near each way odds. (7) Elegant Grace gets a few positives today. She draws barrier 1, gets blinkers on for the first time, and Jason Collett takes over from Louise Day. She had no luck at all as favourite here last start and although she’s likely to find herself in a similar position in running, if the luck does come she should be right in the finish. Waller has five runners in the race so watch the market and it will probably tell you the story.
(3) Express Princess
$4.60
This is wide-open. Sticking with (2) Zakat here who resumes from a spell with JMac going straight on. He’s placed in eight of his 10 career starts, including two wins, so he does have a think about things sometimes. I expect him to find the fence from barrier 2 and from there, with any luck, he’ll be hard to beat. (3) Buckin’ Beauty can improve second up like she typically does. She wasn’t beaten all that far by Spaceboy first up and she has a good record at this track and distance, so with some improvement, she can go close. I think they’ll ride her more positive today in search of the lead or outside lead position. (8) Kawaikini has a good first up record with there wins and a 2nd from six starts. My query with her today is the fact she’s drawn barrier 10 so is unlikely to find the rail in run. (9) Night Flyer and (5) Juan Diva not hopeless!
Value: (3) Buckin' Beauty $14
I think (4) Lillemor can find the lead and more importantly, the rail. She never runs a bad race, beaten half-a-length at Rosehill last start and 2.2L behind Varda prior to that. She’s had two starts here at Canterbury for a win and a third. When she ran third, she seemed disappointing as favourite, but it was on a day where it was impossible to win if you weren’t on the rail in the run, and she sat outside the leader. That’s why I think the rail will prove pivotal today. (5) Emeralds resumed with a good effort on the Kensington track on a day where nothing could win from off the pace. She settled towards the back of the field and reeled off the best closing splits of the day to get within 3L of the winner. She gets two big changes today with the blinkers applied for the first time and James McDonald also booked for the first time. The query is where she lands in the run and the fact John Sargent has a terrible strike rate here at Canterbury (likely because his runners tend to settle so far back). I think the value in the race is (7) Feel The Knight who was only just touched off first up in a Highway Handicap. This is a tougher race but he’s undefeated second up from a spell so the $11 is a reasonable price. (6) Vitesse and (10) Liara both have claims from the Waller camp, while barrier 1 is a big plus for (9) Empress Bea.
(2) Knowitall Jack has been fairly disappointing so far this prep but he really gets his chance today. Drawn inside, he should bounce and find the lead or at the worst, box seat on the rail. His overall record at this track is good, he continues to drop down the weights, and I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t in the finish here. (4) Notabadidea could land behind him on the rail. He races well at this track and was a surprise winner last start. All his best racing has been done on wet ground so he’ll once again get conditions to suit. But Glyn Schofield is hard to back with confidence. (8) This Is So was disappointing for mine last start. Perhaps we went one run too early? Positive jockey change today but negative barrier draw. (4) Baanone is probably over the odds at $11.
Value: (4) Notabadidea $8.50
