Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Canterbury on Wednesday, August 19th.
Sydney racing heads to Canterbury this Wednesday, where the track is rated a Heavy 8 and the rail is in the 6m position. We have seven races on the card with some quality horses engaged, making it an intriguing midweek meeting.
Find Tim Geers' preview and betting tips below!
Canterbury Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 19th
Best Bet: Race 3 – (6) Pitchfork
Best Value: Race 2 – (5) Spirituality
(1) Cat D’Oro looks the winner here after scratchings, with not much in the way of competition. He comes off a narrow defeat to Tiny here last start, and they put 5L on the third horse, so he’d only have to run up to that effort to be winning this comfortably.
If this wasn’t at Canterbury, I’d almost be declaring (3) Raison D’Etre, but I just have no idea how the track will play. It was red-hot rails for the last few months, until last meeting when they suddenly were able to make ground from the back. My fear is that she will settle back in the field, but if the track is fair then I think she’s the winner. (2) Elizabeel looks the logical danger and the form line behind Peltzer and Overlord in particular looks incredibly strong. That’s probably the hottest form line in Sydney three-year-old racing at the moment. (6) Big Angel makes her debut and draws barrier 1 which has typically been a huge advantage at Canterbury. I think the value here could be (5) Spirituality. She was beaten out of sight first up and the rider blamed the heavy track, and she also pulled up with a slow recovery. Worth noting she was friendless in betting that day. If she didn’t handle the track, why would they bring her to midweek city grade on a heavy track? Very sneaky in my opinion, watch the market. $9.00 could prove to be a good bet. Backing Raison D’Etre and Spirituality.
Value: (5) Spirituality $9.00
I’ve seen a few people keen on (1) Knowitall Jack today but I’m done with him, I think he’s completely gone. They throw the blinkers back on today which could spark some improvement, but I think he’s racing well below his best and I am hard against him. That makes (6) Pitchfork close to a moral in my opinion. He took a while to break through but he did so in style last start at Newcastle. The inside draw allows him to find the rail up on speed and from there, he’ll be very hard to beat. John O’Shea has a 23% strike rate at Canterbury so his runners go very well here. (3) Barachus can improve third up at $26.
First up on heavy ground is the query for me with (8) Forbidden Love, but I’m sticking with her anyway. She was a good winner on debut defeating Raison D’Etre, then finished 3.5L off Away Game, before finishing 3rd last time we saw her. She resumes from a spell with two nice trials under her belt, she draws well in barrier 2, and I don’t think there’s a whole lot to this race, so I expect her to be hard to beat. (5) Sweeping Statement should find this easier than what she’s been running against in her past few starts. All four starts since she won first up have been legitimate Saturday quality races and this has less depth. Her racing pattern makes it difficult to win at Canterbury but if they are making ground out wide then she’s a chance. (2) Phemonoe resumes and has Louise Day on board, which suggests to me she might need the run. They’ll go back with her from barrier 6 and that’s enough for me to pass on her today. Her quality will take her a long way but at the price I have to be against her.
This is a great race for a Wednesday! (7) Damaged resumes here. Last time we saw him he failed badly as favourite in the G2 Kindergarten Stakes at Randwick, which was won by Doubtland. Prior to that he was a dominant winner first up at Warwick Farm. If he reproduces that today he should be going very close to winning this. The booking of Glen Boss somewhat threw me, but he’s had two winners and two 2nd placings from seven rides for James Cummings so it’s not all that left field. (11) Strike was an impressive winner on debut at Eagle Farm back as a 2YO, before failing behind Golden Slipper winner Farnan in the Magic Millions at Wyong. He’s had 35 weeks off and returns as a 3YO today, having won both trials leading in. The map is a bit awkward for him but I’m interested to see how he returns. (9) Gunnamatta hasn’t done anything wrong in two career starts and he’s been scratched from one or two Saturday races and runs today instead. He’s seven weeks between runs but has had a trial since his last race. He should roll forward to sit outside the leader and will be competitive. (6) Hulk does his best racing fresh, with five top-two finishes from five starts when first up. He’s not quite first up but he has been freshened up with six weeks between runs. Look for him to improve. (4) Karaja ran well against the pattern of the day first up and that race has proved a strong form reference.
Another competitive race. (11) Sauvestre has only had the one career start, and although the winning margin was only narrow, there was a 6L gap back to the third horse. The horse he beat has yet to race again, so it’s hard to know what the form is like, but the horse he beat is also nominated for the Golden Rose and Caulfield Guineas, so obviously they have some opinion of him. Sauvestre’s trial was good and he draws well in barrier 3 to hopefully just sit behind the leader on the rail. He looks to have a class edge but the risk is whether he can return as a 3YO and go on with it. (8) Olympic Legend should kick up from barrier 1 to take up a position on speed. He can go well at each way odds. (5) Escaped wasn’t given much hope last start, caught three-wide on speed throughout. The form from that race has proved strong and I expect they will go straight to the lead today. He’ll be tough to catch. (4) Aim was competing in Group 1 events last preparation so should find this a whole lot easier. The wide gate doesn’t make his job easy though. Kerrin McEvoy did ride Sauvestre in his trial but chooses to stick with Aim which is interesting.
(2) Tochi was my best bet of the day last start and he got the job done for us at a decent price so I’ll stick with him today. He loves it here. He’s had four starts at the track for three wins and a 2nd, and he’s 4/4 at this distance. He cops a 2kg rise in the weights from last start and he also draws barrier 12, but if he can get across to the rail without using too much petrol, he’s going to be very hard to beat again. (8) Pressure looks the big danger with James McDonald riding for Bjorn Baker. JMac has 11 wins from 29 rides for Baker so when they team up they go very well. The mare was only beaten a nose last start here at Canterbury so looks primed third up from a spell. (7) Itz Lily drops from Saturday grade and draws gate 1 so gets her chance.
