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ATP Challenger Aix En Provence – Round 2
Match: Johan Sebastian Tatlot vs Bernard Tomic
Surface: Clay
Weather: Sunny, 21 degrees Celsius (top of 23 degrees today)
Road to the 2nd round:
Tatlot
Tatlot got the job done in three sets over Peter Polansky 2 days ago, winning 7-5 5-7 6-3. Tatlot came from 2-4 down in the first set, recovering from a very slow start to sneak ahead on the back of 71% of first serves into play. Polansky had no answers on his own serve early, winning only 50% of points on his first serve in set 1, broken 3 times along the way.
Both players had more comfortable second sets on their serve from a statistical standpoint, however Polansky started to exert a more consistent pressure on the serve of Tatlot. Tatlot’s service games in set 2 ended:
- Hold to 30 (had 30-all)
- Hold to 30 (had 30-all)
- Hold to 30
- Hold to Deuce (had 15/40 and saved 3 break points)
- Hold to 0
- Broken to Deuce (had 40/30)
Tatlot took control in the third set, however after breaking Polanksy for *4-2, left the door open for Peter to get back into the match being broken to 15. Polansky gave the gift right back, unable to hold serve from 40/15, with Tatlot serving the match out, justifying his wildcard into the main draw after his impressive clay court form at ITF level lately
Tomic
Bernie had every opportunity to not be in this tournament anymore, and it is actually his performance late in the match that has me intrigued in his price today. Tomic, coming off his performance vs Troicki in Istanbul where he had an opportunity to serve out the match, came out strong vs Blancaneaux, taking the first set 6-4, facing no break points along the way (troubled only once on serve, with game 6 of the set going to Deuce after a 0/30 deficit). The young Frenchman got back on track in set 2 taking it 6-2, however Tomic was able to consistently pressure the serve of Blancaneaux, who faced 6 break points across 3 of his 4 service games.
Where Tomic impressed me however was the third set, where Tomic found himself in a *2-5 hole. After holding serve, Tomic had 3 break point opportunities come and go, then saved a match point, then broke, then held from 0/30, then broke again, and served out the 7-5 with a love hold. For someone who at times has questionable ticker in those big moments when his back is against the wall, Tomic showed a lot of grit to grind his way over the line.
Outlook for the Match
I really thought Tomic would have started a bit shorter today – not 20 cents longer than he was against Blancaneaux. Whilst I am happy to acknowledge that Tatlot has played some decent tennis at the Futures level (won F9 title last week), however this is a pretty significant jump up in form.
If Tomic puts together form that resembles what he put up against Troicki and Blancaneaux (and even Hoang on indoor hard in his comeback match), then he should win here, regardless of how good Tatlot has been playing. He has never faced a top 100 player, and he has a 1/13 record vs players in the top 220 (only win was vs Polansky the other day). Tomic, when motivated and driven, is arguably the best player he has face in his career, and Tatlot is sitting around the $2 mark, which I simply cannot have. Tomic has shown he wants to be here with his comeback the other day, so at the odds I am happy to back Tomic to progress to the quarter finals with a victory here.
TIP: 3.5 units (3.5% of bankroll) Tomic to defeat Tatlot at $1.85 at Crownbet
ATP Madrid – Round 3
Match: Alex Zverev vs Leonardo Mayer
Surface: Clay
Weather: Mostly Sunny with a top of 23 degrees celsius
Road to the 3rd round:
Mayer
Rd 1: Defeated Fognini 6-3 6-4
- Saved 9/10 break points
- Converted 3/3 break points
- Lost serve once (first game of match), and broke back instantly
- Held from 0/40 when serving for the match
Rd 2: Defeated Verdasco 6-2 6-1
- Saved 3/3 break points
- Converted 4/10 break points
- Won 45% of points on Verdasco’s first serve, and 55% of points on Verdasco’s second serve.
- Lost 12 points on serve for the entire match
Zverev
Rd 1: Bye
Rd 2: Defeated Donskoy 6-2 7-5
- Didn’t face a break point
- Lost only 10 points on serve for the match
- Converted 3/9 break point opportunities
- Won 70% of points on second serve of Donskoy
Outlook for the Match
Zverev should get the job done here, however I don’t foresee this match being anywhere near as comfortable as the odds suggest, especially when you look at the form of the Argentine this week against two really solid claycourt players.
Zverev got a little lucky scheduling wise this week. After a round 1 bye, he was afforded a round 2 against Donskoy, who was arguably the weakest player left in the draw, after he beat a clearly fatigued Tsitsipas in round 1 in a third set tiebreak.
I am seeing this match follow similar lines to the likes of Zverev’s wins over Hanfmann, Nishikori, Muller and Struff over the last couple of weeks. I don’t quite trust Zverev’s ability to keep the foot down for the entire match against grinding claycourters such a Leo Mayer, and as a result I am pretty comfortable siding with the over 21.5 games on offer, as I think this match has a pretty decent chance of having either a tiebreak of a 3rd set. Look for Mayer to consistently pressure Zverev, giving the young German something to think about today. I think the best option here, amongst many, is for this match to surpass the 21.5 game total.
TIP: 3 units (3% of bankroll) Total Games over 21.5 at $1.90 at Sportsbet
