There’s no doubt that this summer’s Ashes series between Australia and England was hyped to the max. There was every chance that the first Test just wouldn’t live up to expectations, but you would have to say, not only did the spectacle match the hype, but the game rose to an even greater level than we’ve seen before. At least, that’s what you would be thinking if you were an Aussie. As for the Poms, well, they probably weren’t so impressed.
The first few days were some of the best sporting contests you’ll see, so we hope that the rest of the series can match that intensity.
It’s up to the Englishmen to now match the aggression of the Aussies, and show some fight and some heart in Adelaide. They’ll certainly enjoy the conditions more in Adelaide than they did in Brisbane. The pitch will be flatter and lower, which will allow their batsmen to blunt the pace battery that they copped in Brisbane. A drop-in pitch will be used for the first time, so it may play a little differently to years gone by, but I still expect plenty of runs to be scored.
I expect the leaders for England to shine with Alastair Cook and Kevin Pietersen set to rise to the challenge. Pietersen loves Adelaide, with an awesome 227 last time he was there. We backed Pietersen in the Leading Series Runscorer market, so we’re looking for him to cash in during this Test.
We expect to see Joe Root will take the spot of Jonathan Trott at #3 with Ian Bell staying at #5 to provide some much-needed middle-order stability. So that leaves a hole at #6 with England likely to debut Gary Balance after a decent showing in the tour match. Tim Bresnan has also been added to the squad after overcoming stress fractures in his back. He’ll probably play in place of the pedestrian Chris Tremlett, and will also add some handy lower-order batting. I don't think Monty Panesar will play with two spinners not required on this surface.
The Aussies have already announced an unchanged side with George Bailey holding his spot at #6 and James Faulkner once again 12th man. There were talks of resting Ryan Harris but he was having none of it. There will be a big onus on Shane Watson to bowl some overs to take pressure of the pacemen who are likely going to have to grind it out on a flat wicket. The Aussies will need to bowl a smarter line and length in Adelaide as the bouncer barrage just won't be as effective in Adelaide. As much as we enjoy seeing the Poms jumping all over the place, the Aussies need better plans than just pure aggression.
Our Verdict
The first day of the Test match is likely to be hampered by bad weather. Combine that with expected improvement from the tourists and a flat batting wicket, we’re backing the Draw in the Match betting (currently at $2.50). We’ll be taking advantage of the promotions below to boost our bets.
Prop bets
Ryan Harris to take more wickets in the 1st innings vs Peter Siddle – Ladbrokes @ $1.83. Harris is always going to give you something, but Siddle is struggling. Happy to take Harris here.
Jimmy Anderson to take more wickets in the 1st innings vs Stuart Broad – BetStar @ $2.05 (use referral code 43707). Broad was great in Brisbane but his weapon is bounce and he won’t get that in Adelaide. Swing, especially reverse swing, will play far more of a factor and that’s where Jimmy Anderson shines. There’s plenty of value about this price for one of the world’s best bowlers.
Results/Futures
We had some excellent results in Brisbane. Our match bet won, as did our prop bets on the first innings batting.
The Aussies getting off to a winning start was a good thing for our predicted 2-2 series score line. We backed it at $7.50, and that result is now joint favourite for the series at a price of $6.80 on Betfair.
Our main pick for the Leading Wicket Taker in the series was Mitchell Johnson and he didn’t disappoint with 9 wickets, one more than England’s Stuart Broad. We backed him at $8.00 and you can now lay that off at $3.55 at Betfair for a very nice profit.
Bring on Adelaide!
We also back Kevin Pietersen in the Leading Run Scorers market. He looked ok in Brisbane but we expect him to shine in Adelaide with his price to come in to create a good trading opportunity.
Take note: The above is simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
