It feels like an eternity since the 2024 AFL regular season concluded with the players enjoying a bye week before the Finals series gets underway. Hopefully they are now feeling fresh and ready to fire as eight teams remain in contention for the 2024 AFL Premiership.
First up, we head to the Adelaide Oval where Port Adelaide will host Geelong in a Qualifying Final between 2nd and 3rd on the ladder. The winner will get another week’s rest while there’s a double chance available for the loser to live to fight another day.
Draftstars have raised the stakes for the Finals series, with Thursday night's game offering a huge $70,000 prize pool guarantee. There's also healthy prize pools available in the usual variety of alternate contests:
- AFL $70,000+ Power vs Cats
- AFL $7,500+ Power vs Cats High Roller ($150 Entry)
- AFL $2,000+ Power vs Cats Fiver
- AFL $3,000+ Power vs Cats Mini ($2 Entry)
The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There's only a couple more chances to qualify for the AFL Star final this season so jump into the qualifiers in the Draftstars lobby now!
Betting Markets
Port Adelaide ($1.46) vs Geelong ($2.66)
Line: Port Adelaide -12.5
Points: 166.5
If you’re looking to bet on the AFL this season, then you can bet with PlayUp by using the same account that you have at Draftstars. PlayUp are Australian owned and offer an strong range of AFL betting markets and offers, including Same Game Multis.
Additionally, we have a full Port Adelaide vs Geelong Betting Preview for the game where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!
Weather
Adelaide - Cloudy, 25 degrees
A mild night in Adelaide but the weather shouldn’t have any influence on the match.
Where to Attack?
While Port Adelaide have been a tough team to attack from a fantasy perspective all season, there are plenty of leaks at Geelong.
The Cats midfield has battled all season, conceding above average points to the opposition’s inside midfielders. However their midfield has looked as settled as it has been all season with Dangerfield, Atkins, Bruhn and Bowes all in good form in Round 24.
The other area which has been poor for the Cats has been in the ruck, but again the tide has started to turn towards the end of the season. They have settled on veteran Rhys Stanley and he finished the season with a couple of strong performances. Port have also been unsettled in the ruck this season, but Jordan Sweet seems to have taken the #1 ruck spot and holding his own.
One other area to look at is Geelong leaking points to the opposition defenders. This trend has only emerged late in the season with the Cats giving up over 7 points above average to defenders, and over 9 points above average to the designated kicker, over the last five matches. With both Dan Houston (suspension) and Kane Farrell (injured) out of the Power side, finding the players who will step into those roles will be crucial for your lineups.
Game script: Port inside midfielders and defenders
VALUE PLAYS
Quinton Narkle ($6,000) is in the Power side and will be in play if he can avoid the dreaded sub vest. I'm a fan of "Sparkle" Narkle, and although his small forward role isn't the best, he can get up the ground and win his own ball, which he only needs to do a few times to hit value at minimum price.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Jase Burgoyne ($11,960) is my preferred play out of the Port Adelaide defenders. There's a number of options but Burgoyne has shown a good ceiling with three tons this season and scores of 95, 99 and 83 in his last three. His run and skills will be important without Houston and Farrell so I expect him to be well used out of defence. He's also likely to be popular, so you have options to pivot to Miles Bergman ($11,290), Logan Evans ($10,760) or Ryan Burton ($10,060) at around the same price point who may gain more from an increased role in the backline.
Willem Drew ($12,690) is always a tough one to catch. You never think he's going to be a huge scorer, and then he'll smash out a ton out of nowhere. Tackling is the key for Drew who is a tackling machine, and I like that in finals where I expect there will be plenty of contested possession. The other reason I like Drew is I don't see any real tagging concerns for Port. Perhaps he stands next to Dangerfield to nullify his influence around the ball, but I can't see it being a hard tag and Drew can expose Danger the other way. Has four tons in his last 7 with a 93 average in his last 6.
PREMIUM PLAYS
Jason Horne-Francis ($13,670) is peaking as a player now that he's got a couple of seasons under his belt. His recent form has been excellent and he continues to be dangerous forward with 25 goals for the season. Can play in bursts but JHF is showing that he's prepared to stand up in big moments and carry his teammates, which is perfect for finals footy. Had 141 three games ago and looking for another ton here.
Zak Butters ($16,550) is the most expensive player on the slate and I'll be trying to squeeze him in as I love his desperation in a a finals environment. While Connor Rozee ($15,460) is also an option, Rozee has looked a little ginger towards the end of the season so I think Butters gets the nod. Can go large with scores of 128, 108, 143 and 89 in his last month, for a season average of 106. Expecting to see another 30+ disposal game against a leaky Geelong midfield.
Suggested Draftstars Team
AFL Fantasy Cheat Sheet
