Six hours of NRL action this Sunday, as the Origin period hands us the luxury of three Sunday afternoon games!
First up, the Roosters look to get things back in track against the Bulldogs, before the Cowboys and the Storm go at it in what should be a tight contest. Finally, despite a number of Origin players, the Panthers will be hoping for a big win against the lowly Dragons.
Join us below, as we dissect each of the three NRL matchups, and outline our NRL betting tips for all three. The best part? It’s all for free! Let’s dive in.
NRL Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Industree Group Stadium, Sunday 4th June, 2:00pm (AEST)
The Roosters are coming off a much-needed bye, and head into this matchup with the Bulldogs on a 3-game losing streak, worst in the league. In round 12, the Roosters were humbled 24-22 by the Dragons, who were riding the wave of a 6-game losing streak prior to beating the Roosters. The attack continues to struggle, and they will be hoping the week off has given them a chance to gel.
The Bulldogs are also off the bye, however, they managed a win in round 12, running out 20-18 winners over the Titans. The Titans were the better side for the most part; however, the Bulldogs were able to eek out the win, with a late Jayden Okunbor try and Matt Burton goal sealing the deal.
The two worst attacking teams go head-to-head on Sunday afternoon on the Central Coast, with one team attempting to prove they are still a Premiership force, whilst the other just aims to avoid the wooden spoon. The Roosters opened 8.5-point favourites, with the number bet up this week to 10.5. Meanwhile, the total hasn’t moved from 42.5, however I believe this will surely come down before kick-off.
I make this number around 8.5, so would lean the Bulldogs with the 10.5-point start. The Roosters have only managed to cover the spread twice out of 8 games when favoured, whilst also only winning one of their games by 13+. Meanwhile, the Dogs have covered 6 of their 11 games when priced up as underdogs.
Whilst I like the Bulldogs to cover, I prefer the total. I make a fair total for this game 39.5, so if you’re going to give me another 3 points, I’ll take the under. Of course, the Roosters attack could figure it out and put 30+ on the Bulldogs here, however I’ll trust that it’s still clunky this week, and sneak by the Bulldogs in a 22-16 type scoreline.
Alternative Bet: Bulldogs (+10.5) - $1.91 @ Bet365 (1u)
Under 42.5 points
$1.90 (2 units)
North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Sunday 4th June, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Cowboys were overpowered last week by the Eels, in a 24-16 loss at CommBank Stadium. After trailing 18-6 with just over 10 minutes remaining, the Cowboys scored two quick tries to bring themselves right back into the game at 18-16. A late Mitch Moses try sealed the deal for the Eels, who probably should have won more comfortably.
The Storm are off the bye, with their last game in round 12 being a 24-16 win at Suncorp over the Dolphins. The Storm were dominant in the first half, leading 24-4. The Dolphins managed two converted tries in the final 15 minutes to make the scoreline easier to stomach, as the Storm were by far the better team.
The market opened Storm -6.5, total 42.5, and neither has budged. A good portion of that is likely down to the fact the Cowboys may look to rest their Origin players, with Valentine Holmes, Murray Tualagi, and Reuben Cotter named on an extended bench. With Tualagi likely out, and Cotter having to back up from 80 minutes in Origin 1, I believe Holmes is the only likely man who will back up for the Cowboys.
Conversely, all three Storm members who played Origin are named to back up, and I would imagine they all will (Munster, Coates, Grant). My numbers are very close to this with both teams at full strength, so the losses of Cotter and Tualagi sway my position towards the Storm, however with the number sitting on 6.5, I don’t see huge value.
I make a fair total for this game 41, which is only slightly under the total of 42.5. The reason I like the total though, is both teams, and in particular the Storm, have been consistently hitting unders this season. The Storm has the highest percentage of unders of any team in the NRL, with 9 of their 11 games (81.8%) going under the total. The Cowboys have gone under on 8 occasions (61.5%), so I like the under here.
Under 42.5 total points
$1.91 (1.5 units)
Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons
BlueBet Stadium, Sunday 4th June, 6:15pm (AEST)
The Panthers are off the bye, having battled past the Broncos at Suncorp in round 12, winning 15-4. Despite the win, the Panthers still showed they are vulnerable this season, with the Broncos being without halfback Adam Reynolds managing to stay within arms reach for the 80 minutes. The Panthers were never in danger of losing, dominating all statistics, however, were clunky in the redzone, and desperately need to sort their attack out.
The Dragons were dominated by the Dolphins at Kayo Stadium last week, with their winning streak ending at 1, losing 26-12. The Dragons are in a world of hurt right now, and get one of the toughest tests in Rugby League on Sunday.
The Panthers opened 16.5-point favourites for this one, with money coming in on the Dragons since Origin to place the spread at 15.5. The Panthers had 6 players in Origin, all of which played meaningful minutes. Given this, there must be some concern over all 6 backing up, with the likes of Isaiah Yeo and Liam Martin in the most doubt. Martin had a great game on Wednesday, but looked battered and bruised after playing 61 hard minutes. Yeo played the full 80 in the middle, and could be limited in his minutes on Sunday.
The Dragons have just the one player backing up from Origin, Ben Hunt, and he should be in no doubt for this clash. So, the Dragons shouldn’t have too much to worry about when it comes to players backing up.
With the spread in this one being close enough to three tries, I’ll aim squarely at the total in the contest. Whilst I believe the under is a decent shout, I prefer to look at the Dragons team total. The Panthers are conceding a league best 11.36 points per game, which gets even better at Bluebet Stadium, conceding less than 10 points a game at home. With the Dragons team total sitting around the 11.5/12.5 mark, I’ll gladly pay a little juice to bet against the Dragons scoring three tries.
Dragons under 2.5 tries
$1.59 (3 units)
