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AFL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton
Saturday 7:30pm AEST, May 13th, Marvel Stadium
With three losses from their last four games, Carlton are under a mountain of pressure heading into Saturday. The Blues are clinging on to their top eight spot and are heading into a crucial month with games against the Bulldogs, Sydney, Collingwood and Melbourne.
The Bulldogs come into Round 9 with five wins from their last six games after holding off a gallant GWS outfit, in a fifteen point win at Manuka Oval. The Bulldogs were once again led by a dominant performance by skipper Marcus Bontempelli, and will be looking for him to produce once again against Carlton’s big body midfielders.
Carlton have made three changes to their side with Brodie Kemp, Ed Curnow and Josh Honey all dropped, with Matt Owies and Matthew Cottrell returning to the lineup. Matthew Kennedy has been upgraded to the starting 22 after being the sub against Brisbane.
The Bulldogs have thrown a massive shock at the selection table with James O’Donnell selected to make his debut, only 35 days after being signed as a category B rookie. Adam Treloar is out with a hamstring injury, and Lachie McNeil has been omitted after being the sub against GWS.
Many of Carlton’s statistical metrics suggest the Blues are playing better than what their record suggests. Carlton have been killed by turnovers, particularly in their defensive half. The Blues average 67 turnovers per game (6th most in the competition), however that number has increased to an average of 71 turnovers across their last three defeats.
If Carlton can fix up their disposal, there is plenty of upside in their game given how well they match up against the Bulldogs. The Blues knocked off the Bulldogs last season on the back of 5 & 4 goal performances from Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, whilst in 2021 the Blues lead the Dogs by 27 points in the third quarter on the back of four goals by McKay, before falling short.
The last two Coleman Medal winners provide plenty of headaches for a Western Bulldogs defence that hasn’t been strong over the last two years. Liam Jones will provide some extra stability to contain at least one of his two former teammates, however it still looms as a major issue for the Bulldogs.
Another issue for the Bulldogs will be matching up with the size of Carlton’s midfield. The last time these sides met, Patrick Cripps (35 disposals), George Hewett (32) and Matthew Kennedy (31) beat up the Dogs around the ball, and with Josh Dunkley now at the Lions, the size difference has only increased further between these two midfield groups.
Although the Bulldogs are playing vastly better football than Carlton, the Blues matchup incredibly well through the midfield and front half against the Dogs. Carlton have won two of their last three against the Dogs, this will be a tight encounter, however with the firepower Carlton have in their forward half, they will be too strong for the Bulldogs.
Carlton
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
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Blake Acres 25+ Disposals: Blake Acres is putting together a serious season in his first campaign as a Blue, averaging 26 disposals per game. The Former Docker has been in red hot form over the last three weeks, with performances of 29, 34 and 36 disposals.
Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals: The Carlton skipper will be looking to bounce back after a quiet performance against the Lions. Cripps has hit the 25+ disposal mark in six of his eight games this season, and had 35 disposals the last time he faced the Dogs.
Tim English 20+ Disposals: Week after week English continues to prove himself as the best ruckman in the AFL, averaging 20 disposals per game. English has recorded at least 20 disposals in four of his last five games, and recorded 24 disposals against the Blues last season.
Same Game Multi Odds: $3.40
