AFL Round 23 kicks off on Friday night with a blockbuster between Brisbane and Melbourne at the Gabba. With a top four spot on the line, you won’t want to miss this one! Find our best bets for the clash here.
Remember, Before You Bet will be previewing every game of the 2022 AFL season, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
Brisbane vs Melbourne Betting Tips
Gabba, Friday 19th August, 7:50pm (AEST)
Brisbane
Injuries: Marcus Adams, Callum Ah Chee, Tom Berry, Blake Coleman, Carter Michael, Connor McFadyen, Ely Smith
Brisbane are blessed with nearly all of their best 22 available to play this weekend. Marcus Adams and Callum Ah Chee are the only two who are currently battling injury as both are suffering from ongoing concussion symptoms.
The Lions were in control up until half time of their clash with the Saints last weekend who were playing to keep their season alive. The Saints came charging home in the second half and missed a ton of easy chances in front of goal, which eventually meant the Lions would run home 15-point winners. The Lions have now won four of their last five matches and sit in fourth spot on the ladder coming into Round 23.
Melbourne
Injuries: Tom McDonald, Andy Moni-Wakefield, Fraser Rosman
Melbourne have one of the healthiest lists in the competition as we head into the final round of the home and away season. The only important player missing from their best 22 at the moment is Tom McDonald, with the tall utility expected to miss the next 2-3 weeks with an ankle injury.
The Demons left it until the dying seconds to kick the go-ahead goal and defeat the Blues last weekend, courtesy of some Kozzie Pickett magic. It certainly wasn’t the most convincing of wins for the reigning premiers, but it was a win nonetheless and that’s all that matters at this stage of the season. The Demons have lost six of their last 11 matches since starting the season 10-0, but they remain in third spot on the ladder and 3.6% ahead of the Lions.
Match Prediction
Neither team would be happy with their performances in the second half of the season, but they have to put it all behind them and focus on what’s a massive match on Friday night. The winner will secure a top four spot and a double chance in the finals, while the loser will almost certainly slip outside the top four.
The Demons made light work of the Lions when these teams met earlier in the season, although the reigning premiers were flying at the time and also had the advantage of their home ground. As the odds suggest this time around, there’s little to split these teams and I for one will not be having a stab in the dark in the H2H market. Instead, I fancy the unders in the total points here, with the 170.5 line looking a couple of goals too high. With the pressure levels expected to be sky high resulting in a more contested style of play, goals will be much harder to come by compared to the other 22 rounds in the home and away season. I’ll be on the unders for two units to kick off the final round of the season.
Under 170.5 Points
$1.88 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
The key defenders of the Demons are some of the best in the business, which means I’ll staying away from the likes of Hipwood, McStay, Daniher etc in the goals markets. Instead, I’ll be having a crack at Cameron to kick multiple goals as he’s the only forward with a notable matchup advantage.
Charlie Cameron 2+ Goals ($1.70 at Ladbrokes)
Finding value in the disposal markets isn’t easy in this match, but one player that I do like on Friday night is James Jordan. He’s collected 20+ touches in two of his last three outings and has reached that mark 12 times already this season. He remains good value to get 20+ against the Lions.
James Jordan 20+ Disposals ($1.82 at Ladbrokes)
