The ladder leading Cats will be looking to extend their winning streak to nine games, when they travel to Adelaide to take on a Port Adelaide side who need to win to keep their season alive.
Jack Tobin has you covered with his preview for Saturday twilight football, and make sure to check out BeforeYouBet’s AFL Tips page for coverage on every game this weekend.
Port Adelaide vs Geelong Preview & Betting Tips
Adelaide Oval, Saturday 23rd July, 4:35pm AEST
Port Adelaide
Injuries: Lachie Jones, Trent Dumont, Josh Sinn, Brynn Teakle (Test), Scott Lycett, Jake Pasini (Out)
The big news coming out of Alberton is that Orazio Fantasia is set to play his first AFL game of the season after being plagued with knee and quad injuries this season. Fantasia was the unused substitute in Round 9, but is expected to be in the starting 22 this weekend. Lachie Jones and Trent Dumont are also expected to return to the senior side after recovering from hamstring and calf injuries respectively. Brynn Teakle and Josh Sinn are expected to return via the SANFL, while Scott Lycett is out indefinitely after having a procedure to clean out his shoulder last week.
With Richmond and St Kilda dropping games last weekend, Port Adelaide had an opportunity to draw level on points with eighth place, but couldn’t capitalise after a strong start against Melbourne in Alice Springs. The Power won the disposal count, inside 50’s, clearances, contested possessions and held Melbourne goalless in the first quarter, but went down by 14 points. They’re only one game outside of the top eight, but everything will need to go right for Port Adelaide in the final five weeks of the season if they are to play finals.
Port Adelaide rank 15th in the AFL for points per game, averaging 76 points per game. Geelong have only scored below 77 points once this season, so the Power have will have their work cut out trying to kick a winning score against one of the best defensive outfits in the league.
Geelong
Injuries: Toby Conway, Francis Evans, Shaun Higgins, Flynn Kroeger, Sam Menegola, Cooper Whyte, Tom Stewart (Suspension)
It looks like it’ll be a simple straight swap for the Cats this week, with Sam Menegola entering concussion protocols after being concussed early against the Blues. Brandan Parfitt is set to return after missing the last five games through a broken hand and health & safety protocols.
Geelong once again staked their claim as the best team in the competition, with a convincing 30 point win over Carlton last week. The Cats were dominant after quarter time, kicking nine goals to four in an outstanding defensive performance. Sam De Koning blanketed Harry McKay, keeping the 2021 Coleman Medalist goalless for the first time since Round 9 2020. Carlton were the sixth highest scoring team in the AFL coming into last week averaging 89 points per game, and the Cats held Carlton to 55 points - comfortably their lowest score of the season.
The Cats have knocked off Melbourne, Carlton and Richmond in the last four weeks, firmly establishing themselves as flag favourites. Geelong are the third highest scoring team in the league and the third best defensive team in the league, highlighting how well they are playing at the moment. Chris Scott has changed the way Geelong play this season, and it’s paying huge dividends.
Match Prediction
There’s plenty on the line for both teams in this clash, with the Cats looking to keep top spot and Port Adelaide needing to win to remain in the top eight race. Although Port Adelaide have shown glimpses of what made them so good over the past two seasons, they haven't shown it against the best sides, with 1-8 against top eight sides in 2022.
Geelong have won seven of the last eight home and away fixtures between these two sides. The Cats have won eight consecutive games by an average margin of 38 points and the line of just -7.5 is far too small for the best team in football at the moment. Geelong has too much depth across all parts of the ground for Port Adelaide to overcome, and will extend their winning streak to nine games.
Geelong -7.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
Mitch Duncan’s shift to half back has been an inspired move, with the veteran averaging 25 disposals per game since Round Eight. Duncan has taken his game to another level in the last month as the Cats established themselves as premiership favourites, with disposal tallies of 25, 30, 32 and 26 disposals in his last four games.
Mitch Duncan 25+ Disposals, $1.68 with Ladbrokes
Jeremy Cameron sits second in the Coleman Medal race with 49 goals from 17 games this season, with his form in the second half of the year being phenomenal. Since Round 10 Cameron has produced returns of 3, 4, 6, 1, 3, 4, 0 and 3 goals. Cameron’s ability to mix through the midfield and get back towards goal has made him even harder for opposing teams to stop.
Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals, $1.98 with Ladbrokes
Connor Rozee has been the number one ranked player in Champion Data’s AFL rankings in the last five weeks, and is putting together a serious season since his move into the midfield earlier in the year. Rozee is averaging 25 disposals per game in the last seven weeks, and is coming off a 33 disposal outing against Melbourne in Alice Springs. At $2, Rozee is excellent value for 25+ disposals.
Connor Rozee 25+ Disposals, $2.00 with Ladbrokes
