Round 16 concludes with a big clash out west as Fremantle hosts Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium. Both sides are in good form having won three of their last four games, so this should be an entertaining contest.
Jack Tobin has you covered a preview for Sunday twilight football, and be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for tips on every game this season!
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide Preview & Betting Tips
Optus Stadium, Sunday 3rd July, 5:20pm AEST
Fremantle
Injuries: Blake Acres, Jye Amiss, Heath Chapman, Nathan O’Driscoll, Sam Switkowski, Josh Treacy, Darcy Tucker, Liam Henry
The Dockers will be forced into at least one change, with Liam Henry out with a hamstring injury. Michael Walters, Nathan Wilson, Connor Blakely and Sam Sturt have been brought into the extended squad. Sam Switkowski’s back injury and Blake Acres’ hamstring injury are Fremantle’s biggest concern, but overall the injury report isn’t too bad for the Dockers.
Fremantle failed a big test against Carlton last week, outplayed in all facets in a 31 point defeat at Marvel Stadium. Fremantle’s midfield has been one of the best in the AFL this season, but they were taken to the cleaners by the Blues losing the disposal count by 44, the inside 50’s by 24, clearances by 14, and the contested possessions by 4.
After three consecutive weeks scoring above 90 points, the Dockers kicked their third lowest score of the season. The lack of supply inside 50 was more of an issue than the functioning of the forward line itself, however Fremantle’s tendency to lose their potency in attack is a major concern for a team looking to go deep in September.
Port Adelaide
Injuries: Riley Bonner, Zak Butters, Trent Dumont, Ollie Lord, Scott Lycett, Jake Pansini, Josh Sinn, Brynn Teakle
Riley Bonner will miss 3-4 weeks with a fractured cheekbone, while Sam Mayes has been omitted from the side that defeated the Gold Coast last week. Darcy Byrne-Jones, Robbie Gray and Orazio Fantasia headline the inclusions to the extended squad. Experienced ruckman Scott Lycett will make his return from a shoulder injury via the SANFL this weekend, giving some hope he could return to the AFL side within the next fortnight.
Port Adelaide made it three wins from their last four games with a gritty two point win over Gold Coast in Adelaide last weekend. The Power are sitting a game outside of the eight heading into Round 16, keeping themselves in the hunt for a remarkable finals berth after starting the season 0-5.
Port Adelaide’s defence has drastically improved in the last nine weeks, conceding an average score of 61 points per game over the last nine games. In the first five rounds of the season, the Power conceded an average score of 91 points per game. If the Power are going to cause an upset in this fixture, their defence is going to have to get on top of the Fremantle forward line.
Match Prediction
This is a crucial game for both teams with Fremantle looking to stay in the top four and Port Adelaide looking to stay in the hunt for a top eight position. The Dockers midfield depth will be the separating factor in this clash. Brayshaw, Brodie, Serong, Fyfe and Mundy will be too much for the Power to contain.
The home ground advantage will be a big advantage for the Dockers in this clash, with Port Adelaide 2-4 on the road this season. Fremantle are 6-2 at Optus Stadium this season, with an average winning margin of 38 points and the Power have never beaten the Dockers at Optus Stadium. With their top four position on the line this weekend, expect Fremantle to bounce back and cover the -13.5 line.
Fremantle -13.5
$2.00 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bets
Connor Rozee’s development into one of Port Adelaide’s best players this season has been the biggest positive of an underwhelming season for the Power. Rozee was thrown into the midfield in Round Five, and since then has averaged 25 disposals per game. Rozee hasn’t dropped below 21 disposals in a game since his move into the midfield and his consistency provides excellent value.
Connor Rozee 25+ Disposals, $1.82 with Ladbrokes
Three of the last four games between these two sides has gone over 152.5 points, and the last five games at Optus Stadium have produced an average total of 154 points. Expect Fremantle to be more aggressive with the ball this week after a poor showing against Carlton, which should create scoring avenues for both sides.
Total Points Over 152.5, $1.88 with Ladbrokes
Will Brodie was the only Fremantle midfielder who performed last week, picking up 36 disposals continuing his remarkable first season in purple. Brodie is averaging 28 disposals per game this season, and he’s ramped it up as the season has gone on, averaging 30 disposals per game across his last seven games. Port Adelaide don’t have a matchup that can go with Brodie physically, so a big performance is on the cards.
Will Brodie 30+ Disposals, $2.70 with Ladbrokes
