2017 Epsom Handicap Day Preview & Betting Tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Epsom Day at Royal Randwick on Saturday, September 30th, featuring a triple header of Group 1 racing!

The Group 1 Epsom Handicap is the feature race on the card, supported by the Group 1 Flight Stakes and Group 1 The Metropolitan. We also have the Group 2 Hill Stakes and Group 2 Premiere Stakes on a bumper nine race card.

The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position and we have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below! 

Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!  

In Episode 2 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the 2017 Epsom Handicap Day and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, September 30th! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!  

ROYAL RANDWICK RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 7 - Happy Clapper
Best Value: Race 2 - Satin Slipper

Race 1

Every horse is on debut here and every horse has had just the one trial leading into race day. The good thing from a wagering and form perspective is every horse except one has trialled over 900m, so it’s fairly easy to compare times. HIEMEL clocked the fastest time over the 900m, recording 53.73sec. She sat behind INVINCIBLE LAD who led, before peeling off his back and going straight past him late. The trial was stylish and Hiemel was clearly superior to Invincible Lad. Kerrin McEvoy rode him during the trial and sticks with him for his debut here. The only other horses to win their trials and break 54 seconds were BONDI and PERFORMER. Bondi recorded a time of 53.85sec and Performer ran 53.93sec. Interestingly, Hugh Bowman rode both of those horses in their trials and sticks with Performer here for Waller. Bondi led all the way in his trial, beating OUTRAGEOUS, and went to the line without being pushed along a great deal. Performer settled off the pace and when he got a split at the top of the straight he really picked up nicely under Bowman’s urgings to go straight past SPIN. Both very different styles of horses but both trials were particularly good to the eye. I would be very surprised if the winner came from outside Hiemel, Bondi and Performer, though Outrageous isn’t hopeless. While Hiemel recorded the fastest time of the three, I’m leaning towards backing the other two. We’re getting $4.50 for Performer and $7.50 for Bondi, so I think we can back both of those for a good result, and you could even cove your bets with Hiemel at $4.00.

TIP: Performer / Bondi EW 

Race 2

Again, every filly is on debut here and they’ve all trialled leading into the race. WITHERSPOON was a $500,000 purchase and she trialled over 900m at Canterbury like many of the boys in Race 1. She ran 53.25sec, which is close enough to 1.5 seconds quicker than Hiemel’s time! That’s a seriously quick and she won the trial easily. I liked the run of GREYT LOVE who finished off nicely behind her in 2^nd. Witherspoon draws barrier 16 here which is going to be tough to win from, while Greyt Love draws nicely in barrier 2. We’re getting $4 for Witherspoon and $9 for Greyt Love, which looks value. I also really liked the trial of the Peter and Paul Snowden-trained SATIN SLIPPER, who won her 900m trial in 54.00sec. That’s the second fastest trial time recorded in this field behind Witherspoon, and I really liked the dynamic turn of foot she showed to win under little pressure. Interestingly, McEvoy rode her in the trial but Bowman takes over here, while McEvoy sticks with the stablemate GALINA. BOLD ARIAL can go well for Waterhouse/Bott, while the value could be CORTESTA who won an 800m trial at Warwick Fam. I think had Witherspoon drawn a better barrier I’d be pretty keen here, but I have concerns over her jumping from barrier 16 with Christian Reith aboard. Instead, I’ll be backing both Greyt Love and Satin Slipper at $9.00 each.

TIP: Greyt Love / Satin Slipper (Best Value)

Race 3

Wide open race. TANGLED is the clear top weight here with 60.5kg on his back under handicap conditions, but I don’t think that will stop him being competitive here. He won in Group 2 company during the Brisbane carnival and resumed in a very hot race behind the likes of Menari over 1200m in the Run To The Rose. He wasn’t at all suited under those conditions first up from a spell, but he’s had a quiet trial since that race and now steps straight up to 1600m. Bowman takes over from Tye Angland and I think at the double figure odds he’s worth having something on despite the big weight. His stablemate SAMBRO is well-placed third up from a spell up to 1600m. an 2^nd in midweek grade behind Fortensky last start (which is a questionable form line) but he did win easily third up last preparation. Draws nicely with Joao Moreira booked for the ride and he ran 5^th beaten 1.5L in Group 1 company at his only start over 1600m. HYPNOTIST also looks set to peak here third up from a short let-up and he gets an all-important drop in class. He’s been running in Group 3 company at his past two starts, so with the 1600m run under his belt, the inside barrier and Kerrin McEvoy on board he should be very competitive. ATARAXIA had no luck last start, caught three-wide the trip before weakening. Remains well weighted with 53kg but McEvoy jumps off to keep the ride on Hypnotist here so that’s a slight query. DISSOLUTION and LANGLEY others to include. Very tough race this but I’ll side with both Waller runners.

TIP: Sambro / Tangled EW

Race 4

Only three I’m really interested in here. MACKINTOSH has absolutely no excuses today and profiles really well to win this. He’s had the two runs back from a spell and steps up to the 1800m third up. First up he was beaten 2.9L by Happy Clapper who is favourite for the Epsom, and then second up he was well-beaten by Winx. The blinkers come off, Moreira takes the ride, the opposition is significantly weaker than what he’s faced in two starts this prep, he should be going very close. I’d prefer to be backing a couple at longer odds, though. PERFECT RHYME is a winner of just one of her ten races, but she’s another that profiles well for this. She was beaten by a nose in the Group 3 Adrian Knox Stakes over 2000m back in April, with a huge gap back to the 3^rd horse, before going on to run 2^nd to Bonneval in the ATC Oaks at Group 1 level. She resumed with a good run at Group 3 level over 1300m, and last start ran 2^nd to Zanbagh at Group 3 level once again, that time over 1400m. Steps up to the 1800m now third up from a spell (which is when she won her only race), goes well at Randwick and represents a good each way bet at $8.00. EMBLEY has struck winning form with two solid victories over 1800m in easier grade. Now that he’s winning, I think he can continue to go on with it, and he’ll bounce straight to the front from barrier 3 and give them something to chase. He’s won his only start over 1800m and although this is a steep rise in class, he could be a sneaky chance on what will be a very firm track. Happy to have something on him at $12. SENSE OF OCCASION is yet to win from seven starts when second up from a spell so I have to take him on today, especially on the very firm ground, while SPECTROSCOPE has struggled to rediscover his best form this prep.

TIP: Perfect Rhyme / Embley EW 

Race 5

Five horses to mention here and I’ll be backing three of them. ALIZEE was dominant last start when stepping up to 1400m. I was strongly against her that day and she proved me wrong, and the step up to 1600m seems like it will be no issue. She went straight past CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES on that occasion, and James Cummings has said this is her grand final and her whole prep has been aimed at winning this race. She will go back from the wide barrier, but provided Glyn Schofield can get cover and give her a good ride, she should be fighting out the finish. CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES followed up her 2nd placing to Alizee with a big run to finish 2^nd in last weekend’s Golden Rose. My concern is that this is the third week in a row that she’s running on the quick back-up, and I get the feeling the Golden Rose was her grand final and this is somewhat of an afterthought because she ran so well. In any case, Alizee went straight past her when they met two weeks ago and I struggle to see her turning the tables. I think ONE MORE HONEY is a good each way bet here and is primed to run a good race. She comes into this third up from a spell and is ready for the 1600m. Last start she was held up until the 200m mark and she hit the line nicely once clear. She was beaten 2.9L by Alizee, but arguably should have been closer, and I’m expecting her to have come on significantly from that run. Drawn nicely and can go close at $9. I’ll also be backing I AM EXCITED. Her preparation has been much better than what it appears to have been on paper. First up she pulled up with poor post-race recovery; second up she finished 0.3L behind Formality and Champagne Cuddles; and last start she was caught three-wide the trip. Given she finished alongside Champagne Cuddles two starts ago and had excuses last start, she shouldn’t be $13 when Champagne Cuddles is $4.20. McEvoy is a positive jockey change. PANDEMONIUM lost all hope last start when she jumped poorly and settled last. If she jumps clean today she’ll lead and that should see her much more competitive. Backing Alizee and I Am Excited with a saver on One More Honey.

TIP: Alizee / I Am Excited EW

Race 6

Nice line up here for the Premiere Stakes, of course headlined by CHAUTAUQUA. The Grey Flash was super first up from a spell over 1100m behind Redzel, and the step up to 1200m should see him very hard to beat here. My only query is that he has been aimed at The Everest all along and he won’t be fully screwed down just yet. He’s placed in seven of his eight starts when second up from a spell and has won three of his four starts over this track and distance (three G1’s for that matter). No doubt incredibly hard to beat. I’m interested in backing IN HER TIME here, who resumes from a spell. She was desperately unlucky not to win a Group 1 last preparation. She’s won twice first up previously (and was enormous first up last prep behind Redzel), has won her only start at the track and distance, and importantly, draws barrier 1. Zac Purton was set to take the ride but couldn’t get a good Group 1 ride so didn’t make the trip, but Corey Brown takes over from Josh Parr. She’ll go straight to the front, or box seat, and I think she’s at least a very good place chance here. The big concern is obviously the announcement that she will be wearing Bar Plates on her front feet due to the expected firm track, but it’s less of a concern with her because she won a Group 2 with them on at this track and distance back in February. She should drift because of that so we might end up with a nice price. CLEARLY INNOCENT usually takes one run to really come good, but I’d suggest he’d want to run pretty well here if they’re still chasing an Everest slot, while TAKEDOWN was solid first up and can finish in the money again. No knock on Chautauqua here, but siding with In Her Time each way.

TIP: In Her Time EW

Race 7

I thought this was a two horse race between HAPPY CLAPPER and EGG TART, and with the latter now scratched because of an eye irritation, I’m pretty keen to back Happy Clapper here. He’s had the ideal preparation for this. His first up run was enormous when winning over 1400m, before running 2^nd to Winx last start. He was beaten 1.5L by the champ, but cleared out by 4.5L from Foxplay back in 3^rd. He’s got a great third up record, has the 1600m run under his belt and has finished in the top two in four of his five starts over this track and distance. Draws absolutely perfectly in barrier 4, and I think despite carrying top weight he is clearly the horse to beat. Very happy to take the $3.10 with Ladbrokes’ enhanced odds on the race (max bet $100). FOXPLAY also comes into this third up from a spell and interestingly, Hugh Bowman takes the ride at 54.5kg which is unusual for him to do. She will be set to peak and from the wide gate they will ride her very quiet, but she gets in at equal weights against Happy Clapper from last start when he smoked her, so it’d be some effort to turn the tables. Tom Melbourne may be the stable’s best hope as he ran 2^nd to Happy Clapper two starts ago and gets a 3kg weight swing on him today. Again, from the wide gate they will ride him conservatively, but with 52kg on his back he is definitely a live chance. COMIN’ THROUGH has the potential to be a serious horse (if he isn’t already) and with 51kg on his back he’s another lightweight chance, while SNITZSON is ready to run a big race with the featherweight. Once he steps up to 2000m I think there will be a nice race in him. Happy Clapper for me with the odds boost giving us a nice price.

TIP: Happy Clapper (Best Bet)  

Race 8

I have very little interest in this race from a betting perspective as I think it’s a race that could be very trappy. Waller has four runners engaged, and as we saw two weeks ago, it’s hard to know which horse is his best chance. I do think LIBRAN is a nice each way bet here at the $6 mark. His win last start when second up from a spell was hugely impressive. He went straight past ANTONIO GIUSEPPE and LIFE LESS ORDINARY like he joined in at the 200m mark, and he went to the line under hands and heels without being touched with the whip. He’s won three from five at the distance, has a terrific third up record, draws well and looks a big chance once again. He seems to have rediscovered his form from last year when he started favourite for the Sydney Cup. ANTONIO GIUSEPPE gets the benefit of a good barrier draw today so he will slot straight into a perfect run in the race. That, combined with Joao Moreira taking the ride, gives him a chance to turn the tables, but I struggle to see that happening. LIFE LESS ORDINARY started favourite when beaten by Libran last start, and he does get a 4kg weight swing on his stablemate today which could be enough to turn the tables. I’ll be having something on him at the $6 mark to cover my bets. McEvoy takes the ride and he is an absolute gun in these staying races. Team Williams send FOUNDRY up and they never send their horses to Sydney unless they are a legitimate winning chance. He carries just 50.5kg here but my big knock on him is Michael Dee taking the ride. He’s been $9.00 into $6.50 so the money is there to suggest he will run well, and the stable will have him cherry ripe third up from a spell. The big unknown for me is BIG DUKE. The stable have given him absolutely no hope in his three runs so far this preparation. They’ve snagged him back to last, put apprentices and second-elect riders on, and it’s almost as if they’ve used those races as track gallops to get him set for races like this. He goes down in weight now and steps up to 2400m on the quick back-up, with Avdulla to ride in a big Group 1. That tells me he’s ready to do something, so he’s another that I’ll be having something on as a saver bet. Tricky race; I’ll be backing Libran with savers on Life Less Ordinary and Big Duke.

TIP: Libran EW  

Race 9

Really competitive sprint to finish off the day. TANGO RAIN draws beautifully in barrier 3 and will jump straight to the front. He’s going very well this prep with a win and two placings from three starts, and he was only run down late by Zumbelina last start. There does look to be a little bit of pressure in the race but I think he’ll just be too speedy and hold them out, and he’ll be tough to run down on the firm track. IMPROVEMENT was our best value bet of the day last start when she was just nosed out to finish 2^nd behind ISORICH. She gets a 1.5kg weight swing on Isorich today and should still have improvement third up from a spell. She’ll likely have to sit outside Tango Rain and risks being caught three-wide, but if she’s close enough on the turn she can win this at $9. We were also on DAGNY at good odds last start when she finished 3^rd behind Isorich and Improvement. She drops 3kg here so gets a nice weight swing in her favour, and is only second up from a spell so should improve quite a bit on her first up run. She’s probably still looking for 1400m which is my only query, but she gets a lovely draw, a hot tempo, and Joao Moreira to ride the light weight. Big chance. ISORICH should definitely still be included at $19 despite giving weight to other horses today. SPRIGHT is probably the best horse in the race and she resumes from a spell with two trials under her belt. If she were to rediscover her best form she’d win this, and she should appreciate the good tempo on up front. Tough race but I’ll be with Tango Rain and Improvement, with a saver on Dagny.

TIP: Tango Rain / Improvement EW 

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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!