We are coming up on Round 12 of the 2014 AFL season and that means we are just about halfway through the footy year. Round 12 is the Queen’s Birthday long weekend and there are plenty of big games, so make sure to read on and check out Before You Bet’s 2014 AFL Round 12 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
2014 AFL Round 12 Preview
The first game of Round 12 sees Geelong Cats Vs. Carlton Blues take to Etihad Stadium. Both of these teams were embarrassed on different scales last week – the Cats lost by 110 points to the Swans and the Blues were beaten by the terrible Brisbane Lions. Straight up, you shouldn’t assume in sports betting, but we have to assume that the Cats loss by that much was somewhat of an anomaly. Blues losing to the Lions though, that seems a little more standard. The Cats have Corey Enright and Tom Lonegran back this week, which structurally is hugely important, with their absence being a big reason they struggled so much against the Swans. The Blues have been okay against the Cats in recent times, losing the last three by 16, 12 and 2. The Cats have, however, won the last 11 against the Blues at Etihad Stadium. Expect that trend to continue and the Cats to bounce back strong after an out-of-character performance last week.
Saturday morning we head to Tasmania for Hawthorn Hawks Vs. West Coast Eagles. The last two weeks haven’t been great for the Eagles as they lost to the Pies and the Roos. All the talk about the Hawks has been how poor they were against the Giants last week. While they still won’t be running out in Tassie with their A team, the Hawks do get Lewis and Rioli back this week. Considering their strong record against West Coast, and having lost one of 16 games down at Aurora Stadium, it should be a Hawthorn win.
There’s not too much to say about Port Adelaide Power Vs. St Kilda Saints. Quite simply, the Saints can’t win this game. Melbourne were competitive against the Power last week, but that was in Alice Springs and frankly, Melbourne are much better than the Saints. Furthermore, Port just seem untouchable at Adelaide Oval. Ten-goal betting line is hard to get around, but gonna be tough for the Saints to be competitive.
Saturday night at Etihad is the Western Bulldogs Vs. Brisbane Lions. There has been quite a bit of heat on the Bullogs throughout the week, with the general consensus that being competitive, yet losing games, is not good enough. They continue to get the ball inside 50 and win clearances like a top six side, but just can’t score goals. If they have the same stats against Brisbane they did against Fremantle, there is no way they lost to Brisbane. Yes, the Lions will have plenty of confidence after a (lucky) win against Carlton, but considering the Lions literally have no player in the ruck, expect Will Minson and the Dogs classy midfield to dominate the Lions. If Picken can stop Tom Rockliff like he managed to ease Ablett’s influence, then the Lions will find it even tougher. Bulldogs to cover the line is one of our top picks of the week and we will also be considering a small play on Bulldogs Over 39 points.
Also on Saturday night is GWS Giants Vs. Essendon Bombers. All the talk has been how competitive the Giants were against an undermanned Hawks last week. If they put that kind of effort in again, then they will once again be competitive here. In saying that though, the Bombers should be too strong, despite this game being up at Spotless Stadium.
The first game on Sunday is Gold Coast Suns Vs. Sydney Swans and to put it simply, if the Franklin-Tippet-Goodes forward line keeps going the way it is, the Suns don’t stand a chance. Taylor Walker hurt the Suns last week when they lost to Adelaide and these three could do some damage to the Suns. This will be a game of a contested ball as they two top teams in that statistic category do battle, but really it’s going to be won in the forward line. The Suns backline won’t be able to stifle the Swans forwards, but the experienced Swans backline should have no trouble stopping Gold Coast from scoring.
Fremantle Dockers Vs. Adelaide Crows is more interesting than one would have thought a few weeks ago. The Dockers started the year poorly, but are finally finding some form. The Crows have also bounced back after a few poor weeks. The Dockers have won the last two in low scoring affairs against the Crows and expect a similar result here over in Perth.
The game of two AFL teams suffering from Bipolar – Nth Melbourne Kangaroos Vs. Richmond Tigers. Many times this year we have sworn to not bet games with these two sides. You just never knew what you are going to get with either of them. Fortunately they have both been more predictable of late as the Roos have been the strong team they should be and the Tigers have been the spuds we all know them to be. The Roos will be confident after an impressive performance against West Coast. They have won the last three against the Tigers, including a 62 point victory against them last year and that was when the Tigers were less spud-like. Expect an easy Roos victory here.
The Queen’s Birthday Monday night match is, as always, Melbourne Demons Vs. Collingwood Magpies. Despite this being a game of 15th Vs. 4th, we expect this game to be far more competitive then you think. The Demons are really starting to build on their confidence and it will be at an all-time high after such a strong performance against the top side last week. The Demons will also be happy to have Chris Dawes back and he will be very keen to put in a big game against his old team. Steele Sidebottom is out for the Pies, but Swan, Ball and Grundy return. The Pies should win, but once again, Paul Roos defensive Demons should be competitive, making a 1-39 margin bet on the Pies look like one of the plays of the week.
Round 12 Best Betting Tips
Geelong -29.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
Western Bulldogs -18.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes ***
+ Bulldogs Over 39.5 (Margin 40+) - $3.30 at Ladbrokes *
Fremantle Dockers Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.20 **
Nth Melbourne -21.5 - $1.91 at Ladbrokes ***
Collingwood Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.30 ***
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 12 Tipping Advice
We tipped just six last week, with Carlton and Gold Coast being big let downs. This week looks like one of those easy weeks where all the favourites win. Let’s see if that proves to be true! Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we pick in a tipping competition down at the local pub or in the workplace.
Geelong (Carlton)
Hawks (West Coast)
Port Adelaide (Saints)
Bulldogs (Brisbane)
Essendon (GWS)
Sydney (Gold Coast)
Fremantle (Adelaide)
Nth Melbourne (Richmond)
Collingwood (Melbourne)
Score last round: 6
Total Score: 59
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
