Two teams that figured to be a part of the AFC Championship picture before the season started go head-to-head on Thursday Night Football, as the Texans head to New York to take on the sputtering New York Jets. With the Jets’ season circling the drain at 2-6, can the Texans overcome the loss of their top two receivers, or will the Jets give their poor fans some hope of a rebound in the second half of the season? Find out our thoughts and best bets below!
NFL Week 9 Preview & Betting Tips
New York Jets vs Houston Texans
MetLife Stadium, Friday 1st November, 11:15am (AEDT)
Last Week
The Jets fell to their fifth-straight loss last week, after going down 25-22 to the New England Patriots. This is rock bottom right now for the Jets, who despite bringing in offensive reinforcements for Aaron Rodgers, and edge rusher Haason Reddick coming back into the team, have continued looking like one of the worst teams in the league. The scary thing for the Jets is that last week they totalled close to 100 yards more than the Patriots, more yards per play, pass yards per play, and rushing yards per play, and still lost. Aaron Rodgers was ok, passing for 234 yards and two touchdowns, whilst Garrett Wilson caught 5 balls for 113 yards. It was the Jets’ defence that should have the team more concerned though, as it continues to struggle to stop even the most pedestrian of offenses.
Moving onto the Texans, who managed a closely fought 23-20 victory over Divisional rivals the Colts. The Texans deserved the win, but struggled to stop the run in what is a good sign for Breece Hall this week. C.J. Stroud was solid, passing for 285 yards and a touchdown, whilst Joe Mixon continued to be the engine of this offense, rushing for 102 yards and a touchdown, whilst also hauling in 4 receptions for 32 yards. In another blow to the offense, receiver Stefon Diggs went down for the season with a torn ACL, further hurting the Texans’ offense who is already without WR1 Nico Collins.
Injury Report
New York Jets
Zaire Barnes (LB) – OUT
Wes Schweitzer (OG) – OUT
Jermaine Johnson II (OLB) – OUT
Chuck Clark (FS) – OUT
C.J. Mosely / Chazz Surratt (LB) – Questionable
Allen Lazard (WR) – Questionable
Morgan Moses (OT) – Questionable
Tony Adams / Ashtyn Davis (S) – Questionable
Alijah Vera-Tucker (OG) – Questionable
Leki Fotu (DT) – Questionable
Houston Texans
Nico Collins / Stefon Diggs (WR) – OUT
Jeff Okudah (CB) – OUT
Christian Harris (LB) – OUT
Jerry Hughes (DE) – OUT
Brandon Hill (S) – OUT
Jaylon Thomas (OG) – OUT
Brevin Jordan / Dalton Keene (TE) – OUT
Azeez Al-Shaair (LB) – Questionable
Dameon Pearce (RB) – Questionable
Jimmie Ward (S) – Questionable
Match Preview
The Jets and Texans last met in week 14 last season, in a matchup at MetLife Stadium in horrible conditions. It was an extremely odd game, with the Texans unable to get anything going on offense against a Jets’ defence that was utterly dominant. Whilst the teams were tied at 0-0 at halftime, the Jets managed to put on 30 second half points to come away with a dominant 30-6 home win as 3-point home underdogs. I would take more from this game if the Jets’ defence had shown even a modicum of the effort they showed last season, however it is like we are watching two completely different units from last year to this year, so I won’t take all that much from the result.
Fast forwarding to this matchup, and the Jets were short 1-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 1-point home underdogs after their loss to the Patriots. However, since the news of Stefon Diggs being ruled out was confirmed, it has been all Jets’ money hitting the market, as they now sit 1.5/2-point favourites at home. I’m sorry, but I just cannot make the Jets a favourite in this matchup. I was extremely bullish on the Jets coming into the season, but the reason this team looked so good coming in was a top 5 defence matched with a hopefully NFL average offense led by Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately, the defence is not top 5 in the NFL, with their defence ranking 20th by DVOA. With their offense rating close to league average, this isn’t good for the Jets moving forward, unless this defence can somehow rediscover it’s mojo. Whilst I acknowledge the loss of Stefon Diggs, I believe the Texans will be able to run all over the Jets’ defence, and with a better QB / Head Coach combo, I like the underdogs to get the win on the road here.
As for the total, it opened 43 on the lookahead, before re-opening 42.5. The total has dropped with the news of Diggs being out, but only slightly to where it currently sits at 42. My fair total is 41.5 for this game, and I wouldn’t say I see any value as a result. I would lean to the under based on both teams’ offenses being below average, and the Texans’ defence generally being regarded as an above average unit.
Looking towards the prop markets, I like Joe Mixon to go over his rushing yards (80.5). Mixon has been an absolute workhorse, averaging 23 carries a game, 119.5 rushing yards per game, and over a touchdown a game in his four starts that he finished healthy. His rushing totals have consistently been rising, but I still feel as though there is room to grow from the books. With their top two receivers out, I expect the Texans to lean heavily on Mixon, and he will get the job done here for us.
Prop Bet: Joe Mixon (over) 80.5 rushing yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1.5u)
Texans to Win
$2.10 (1.5 Units)
