There were a couple of surprises in Round 9 of the 2014 AFL season, but we managed to still end up in profit as snagged Sydney to win by 40 or more points at $3.70. Hopefully we can have another profitable week here in Round 10 – the final round of the byes. Make sure to read on and check out Before You Bet’s 2014 AFL Round 10 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
2014 AFL Round 10 Preview
The first game of the final bye round is Geelong Cats Vs. Nth Melbourne Kangaroos and it’s going to be a cracker! History says that Geelong have a very strong record against Nth Melbourne, having won eight of the last ten games. The two games that the Roos won have been in the last couple of years though. One of the big talked about factors this week is the fact this game is at Simonds Stadium. No team has a better record at home than Geelong – this includes the teams out west. They have won an astonishing 45 of their past 47 games down in Geelong. One of those games they lost at Simonds was to Nth Melbourne, though Geelong have still won 7 of the last 8 against the blue and white at this stadium. This can’t be overlooked. The following two stats is what Nth Melbourne will be worried about… Nth Melbourne are ranked 15th in the league for inside 50s and ranked 14th for marks inside 50. Geelong are ranked 7th and 3rd respectively for these two stats. I just don’t think Nth Melbourne will able to completely overcome these sorts of stats and Geelong’s classy backline will certainly make it even tougher for Nth Melbourne than usual. The Kangaroos will be happy Steve Johnson is out, but that won't be enough for them to come up with a win.
If you had a look at the fixture at the start of the year and saw the Round 10 Richmond Tigers Vs GWS Giants game you would have marked the Tigers down as a big winner. But who knows with that mob anymore? After all, they did lose to Melbourne last week! Though, this isn’t as big a deal as some would suggest. The Demons are a strong side at the moment and would easily beat the GWS on current form. Look, wouldn't be that surprised if the Giants cover a three-goal line after having a rest last week, but wouldn't be surprised if some yellow and black pride sets in (if it exists any more) and the Tigers absolutely smash this team. Leaning towards Richmond to cover the line in the hopes that their more experienced cohort pull their head out of the sand and start playing better footy. On paper they are the better team. Do we give them one more chance to gain back some respect?
The Collingwood Magpies Vs. West Coast Eagles game is an interesting one. The Magpies are coming off a very disappointing loss to Adelaide last week and will be looking to bounce back. On last week's form, the Pies will not beat the Eagles here, but I wouldn’t expect to play that bad again anytime soon. A big factor here is the Magpies imposing record against the Eagles at the MCG, having won 9 of the last 10. The Eagles will also be lacking Mark LeCras, which will leave Josh Kennedy to fly the flag in the forward alone. Luckily Kennedy is coming off an 11-goal agains GWS last week, so will be brimming with confidence. Collingwood smashed West Coast by more than 60 points at the G last year and while I expect Collingwood to win again here, the Eagles should be a lot more competitive.
The Port Adelaide Power Vs. Hawthorn Hawks is probably the hardest game to pick this round. Despite having a great record against the Power, having won the last five games, the Hawks enter this game as underdogs. It's not often against any team that the Hawks are underdogs, but the Power are in ripping form, perhaps even premiership form. These two teams are the highest scoring in the league and are also ranked 2nd and 3rd for points conceded. The game should be won around the backline and with Port Adelaide's forward in great form and the Hawks lacking the class of players like Sam Mitchell (amongst many big outs), the Power do have the edge here. Leaning towards not betting on this game and just watching with interest.
Sunday afternoon sees Gold Coast Suns Vs. Western Bulldogs take centre stage. It's up at Metricon Stadium and there will surely be a solid crowd watching the in-form Suns. This one is all about the Suns. They have won four in a row and If they win this game, will be eyeing off a top four spot. Garry Ablett is somehow improving at his old age, firming into a sub $2 Brownlow favourite and will likely cause problems for the Dogs. The only solace here is that the Dogs tough midfield (Griffen, Liberatore, Boyd) are coming off a rest and will be hungry for big games. Can't see the Bulldogs winning, but the four-goal line is a tough one to bet on the Suns. At their best, the Suns could easily win by 6 goals plus. Will sit on this one.
The final game of the round is Carlton Blues Vs. Adelaide Crows. This is also an interesting one as both of these teams have gained back some respect after starting off the year poorly. Both teams will be pumped after strong wins last week, but the Crows run should be too strong for the Blues. If the Crows can replicate the game they played against the Pies last week, they should take care of a fighting Blues outfit.
Round 10 Best Betting Tips
Geelong Cats Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.20 at Ladbrokes**
Richmond -18.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes*
Collingwood Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.10 at Ladbrokes**
Adelaide Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.45 at Ladbrokes**
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 10 Tipping Advice
With the Demons upsetting the Tigers last week and Adelaide surprisingly taking care of the Pies, we finished with 4/6 tips. Really hoping to get all six in this last week of the bye rounds! Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we pick in a tipping competition down at the local pub or in the workplace!
Geelong (Nth Melbourne)
Richmond (GWS)
Collingwood (West Coast)
Port Adelaide (Hawthorn)
Gold Coast (Western Bulldogs)
Adelaide (Carlton)
Score last round: 4
Total Score: 48
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
