A clash of the cellar dwellers kicks off NRL Super Saturday, as the Eels head north to take on the Titans at Cbus Super Stadium. With the Eels season over, and the Titans’ hanging by the proverbial thread, the shackles could well and truly be lifted for both these teams for the rest of the year. Expect all-out attack from both teams for the rest of the season, including this game. Ben Bridge provides a full preview and betting tips for the match below!
2024 NRL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast Titans vs Parramatta Eels
Cbus Super Stadium, Saturday 13th July, 5:30pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Titans were terrific last week, sneaking by the Sharks 20-16 on the road. This, despite a late change in the halves, Beau Fermor shifting to the centres, and the Sharks in desperation mode after some poor recent form. It kept the Titans slim finals hopes alive, and it was their elder statesman Kieran Foran leading from the front, scoring a try and setting up another. Coach Des Hasler will be desperate for a more disciplined performance this weekend though, as the Titans missed 40 tackles, made 9 errors and conceded 7 penalties in last weekend’s win.
As for the Eels, their poor form continued last weekend, as they lost their fourth in a row in a 32-16 home loss to the Rabbitohs. The home side missed a whopping 43 tackles, whilst committing 15 errors in what has become a worrying trend for the Eels of poor discipline. Clint Gutherson tried his hardest as usual, running for 257 metres whilst setting up two tries. Otherwise, there wasn’t a lot to write home about, with halfback Mitch Moses having a shocking game, missing 5 tackles and making two errors, whilst getting sent to the sinbin in the last 10 minutes. With no Moses this week, others will have to step up for the Eels.
Match Preview
Both teams will be missing one player for Origin, with the Eels missing playmaker Mitch Moses, and the Titans missing front rower Moe Fotuaika. Added to this, it has been well publicised that the Eels are missing a large number of regular first graders, with special dispensation required for the Eels this weekend in bringing in rookie winger Lorenzo Mulitalo.
The Titans and Eels last met in round 20 last season at CommBank Stadium, with the home side eking out a 25-24 victory after a 76th minute Mitch Moses field goal got them over the line. The Eels closed 11.5-point favourites for this match up, with the Titans easily covering. The last four matches between these teams have all been tight, with margins of 1, 2, 6, and 4 separating the teams after 80 minutes.
As for this weekend, the Titans opened 1.5-point favourites last week, before re-opening as 4.5-point favourites on Monday morning. Titans’ money has continued to flood the market, to where they now sit as 7.5-point favourites. I’m not sure I agree with the move, however given the sheer number of players out for the Eels, it’s hard to argue. Both teams have struggled to cover in these situations this season, with the Titans 0-3 at covering as favourites, whilst the Eels are just 1-7 against the spread when closing as underdogs.
The total opened 52.5 for this clash, with slight money coming in on the over, but not enough to shift the total. The Eels have been the biggest overs team in the NRL this season (69%), with their defence giving up the most points per game of any side in the competition (28.6ppg). It’s a high total, but one I believe these teams can surpass. I make a fair total 53.5, and I am usually on the lower end of totals against the market. The weather looks perfect, so the over is the bet here.
Over 52.5 total points
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
D Brown (1+ try) – With Mitch Moses out, expect Brown to be hands on in the redzone this weekend. Brown is one of the most dangerous runners of the ball in the redzone, and with four tries this season, don’t be surprised to see another added this week.
D Fifita (1+ try) – Fifita was once again left out of the Queensland Origin side by Billy Slater, and I expect the big man to take it personally this weekend. Four tries in 12 games, he’s every chance against the worst defence in the NRL.
Eels (+18.5) – I lean the Eels to cover the +7.5, so with a three converted try start here, I like this to bump the price up.
SGM Odds: $13 at Bet365
