There’s nothing like a dramatic overhaul of key positions to ignite some focus on a major showdown between the Wallabies and the All Blacks on Saturday night.
The Bledisloe Cup opener is on at the MCG, perhaps a pointer that the huge arena is front-runner for even bigger hosting rights for the 2027 Rugby World Cup final.
Pairing Tate McDermott and Carter Gordon at halfback and flyhalf respectively is a huge step by coach Eddie Jones. He’s a fearless selector but he’s also got to see what weapons he has at his disposal to fire at the World Cup in September-October.
Collectively, they are 22 years younger than Quade Cooper and Nic White, who started in Australia’s two ragged losses to South Africa and Argentina.
What do we spy in this weekend’s Tests? We always use the word “spy” when the All Blacks are in town because they see a shadow behind every bush or a random bugging device in every chair. Some, the All Blacks don’t even plant themselves.
Let’s get into our best bets for Round 3 of The Rugby Championship, courtesy of expert Jim Tucker.
2023 The Rugby Championship Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Australia v New Zealand
Saturday, July 29 Melbourne Cricket Ground 7:45pm (AEST)
Coach Eddie Jones offers up freely that no one outside the Wallabies’ inner circle believes they can upset the All Blacks on Saturday night.
It’s an underdog status that Jones is happy to embrace against the Kiwis. Remember the Australians were given no chance in Melbourne a year ago and they went within a poor call on full-time of winning.
The Wallabies are quoted as underdogs by 13 points, give or take.
You can look as his punts on McDermott and Gordon in the halves and Petaia at outside centre but don’t do so in isolation.
Jones knows the All Blacks always go after certain Wallabies. He’s making sure he has weapons to at least try to go after the All Blacks and exposed a few fracture points.
The nippy, elusive McDermott can get the Wallabies on the front foot with his fearless darts in close to the ruck. Gordon has a crack so too does the line-busting Petaia.
Throw in wingers Marika Koroibete and Mark Nawaqanitawase and the Wallabies have picked their full artillery in the backs. That’s aside from inside centre Samu Kerevi’s rumbling charges and some sensible talk and timing from fullback Andrew Kellaway.
Basically, more players need to play like Koroibete, whose 172 running metres and 11 tackle busts are both bests in The Rugby Championship.
The Wallabies want to ask some questions even if it means going down in flames. The forwards have to fire up for anything to happen.
Jones has picked top lineout thieves Nick Frost and Jed Holloway to put some heat on the throwing of All Blacks hookers Codie Taylor and Samisoni Taukei’aho. Good decision.
You can see wisdom in the Wallabies line-up on paper but you don’t play Test rugby on paper.
The harsh facts are the All Blacks have won their last five Tests against the Aussies.
They played at such speed in the first 20 minutes against the Springboks in their most recent Test that the Wallabies know that tackling well is a non-negotiable.
Tackling well isn’t just being able to tackle, it’s being in a connected defensive line with everyone trusting the player beside him. That means no wingers coming in off their wing to let a Kiwi finisher fly by or unequal spacing in defence.
This Wallabies XV just hasn’t played together often enough to have all their connections down pat.
Prop Bets:
Mark Telea try & NZ win – $2 (TAB)
Ardie Savea try & NZ win – $3.25 (TAB)
Dave Porecki try & Aus win – $15 (TAB)
Australia lead by 1-7 at HT – $4.80 (TAB)
New Zealand -13.5
$1.85 (4 Units)
South Africa v Argentina
Sunday, July 30 Emirates Airlines Stadium, Johannesburg 1:05am (AEST)
Argentina’s upset over the Wallabies in Sydney showed again how resilient they are away from home. They have two wins over the All Blacks on the road since the 2019 World Cup to prove that point again.
Playing at high altitude in Johannesburg adds a different dimension. The Springboks are a 15-point better side at home as they showed when they dismantled the Wallabies recently.
Equally, the Boks did well to claw their way back into the Test a fortnight ago when the All Blacks led by a big margin after their high-octane start in Auckland.
The Boks have won the last six times they have met the Pumas and hold a 16-1 win-loss record on South African soil.
The South Africans have made more changes to their side Test-on-Test than any other side in the TRC with another nine here.
The key ones include bullocking hooker Malcolm Marx as a starter, Manie Libbok back at No.10 after his sharp Test against the Wallabies and Duane Vermuelen back as No.8 and captain.
You’d have to fancy a South African win especially with the new scoring power they have shown this season.
Wingers Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse won’t finish tryless between them that’s for sure.
Argentina +18.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
