An exciting 4 weeks of international rugby league concludes this weekend with a blockbuster round of fixtures, all at the one ground. Players have reminded fans how important representing their country is to them, producing exhilarating action in every match. Now that the tournament is at the end, silverware in on the line, meaning that the stakes are increased a little more. It will be the last bit of rugby league played until 2025, so it is time to savour the moment. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the matches, with the aim of concluding the year on a winning note.
Pacific Championships – Week 4 Betting Tips
Australia vs Tonga
CommBank Stadium – Sunday 10th November – 4:05pm (AEDT)
The Kangaroos had last week off following two victories over Tonga and New Zealand respectively, in the first two matches of the competition. Their most recent 22-10 win over the Kiwis was like their match against Tonga the week earlier. They were the better team but struggled for momentum at different stages. While things got close with 15 minutes remaining, they were able to build on their 16-10 lead and close the match out with a 71st minute try. They were again on the wrong end of possession (47%) and had an inferior completion rate (79%). This means the Kangaroos made fewer total metres but had a higher average (9.7m vs 9m per carry), while also trailing their opponents in PCM’s. They managed more line breaks (5 vs 3) but will need to tighten up their defence after missing 36 tackles.
Tonga are full of confidence following their 25-24 victory over New Zealand last week. Despite being kept scoreless in Week 1 by the Kangaroos (18-nil loss), they jumped out of the blocks and lead 24-nil after 33 minutes. Still in shock, the Kiwis narrowed the margin to 24-6 at HT. Their dominance in this half was brilliant to watch; they appeared as though they were an experienced side who had been playing together for several years. Unfortunately, it was a different story in the second half, with the Kiwis dominating and leveling scores at 24-all with 12 minutes remaining. It was no surprise that Tonga prevailed via a 75th minute FG, as they had played with discipline all match. They completed at 91% with 55% possession, averaged 9.4m per carry, and had 720 PCM’s. They also made 7 line breaks and missed just 26 tackles. If a similar level can be produced here, it will be an exciting contest.
Australia are overwhelming favourites for this match ($1.13 vs $6) and rightly so given their form thus far. They have recorded an 18-point and 10-point victory over Tonga and New Zealand respectively; yet, they have looked clunky at times and appear to have improvement left in them. They will be way of what occurred last season whereby they were ambushed by the Kiwis and embarrassed 30-nil. There appears to be a resolute determination within this team. That isn’t to discredit Tonga. They have proven in their two matches that they can play a disciplined style of rugby league that will give them chances. Whether they are capable of penetrating their opponent’s defensive line is another factor altogether. Based on each team’s performance this season, it may improve from the first game but not enough to impact upon the result.
If Tonga had of produced two consistent halves last week, there would be greater confidence in them. They will undoubtedly look to start this match strongly and maintain that intensity for as long as possible. Unfortunately, it remains unknown as to whether it will be enough. The likes of Grant, Edwards, Dearden, and Yeo will be relentless in their pressure. They will slowly break their opponents down and strike when opportunities are presented. The fact that the Australian’s have also only conceded two tries thus far in two matches highlights their underrated structure in defence. It will again be strong and is a foundation of their success. In the end, they should be able to rely on that to cover the line and wear their opponents down on both sides of the ball.
Australia -17.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
The margin option goes in to increase the value (which is only slightly). Tabuai-Fidow scored a double the last time they played and will again be dangerous. He isn’t afraid to back himself from anywhere on the field. Similarly, Grant also likes to hold the ball and take a chance when he sees one. This should be no different and he will make use of the extra space from the tiring Tongan forwards.
Australia 13+
Tabuai-Fidow & Grant to Score
SGM Odds: $6.50 at Neds (0.5 Units)
New Zealand vs Papua New Genia
CommBank Stadium – Sunday 10th November – 6:20pm (AEDT)
The Kiwis come up against the Kumul’s in this game, with the PNG team fighting to push their way into internation rugby league’s top tier. To see the Kiwis upset in this game would be one of the greatest to be achieved at this level. Unfortunately, the Kumul’s simply do not have the firepower or class that New Zealand do. It may be tight early, but the Kiwis will also be out to prove a point. After winning in emphatic fashion last year, they will be disappointed by their narrow 1-point loss last week. Expect a statement to be made. You must go searching for value in this contest and the line may be where it is found. 19.5 points doesn’t seem to be enough at this level. While questions remain about the Kiwis defence, their attack is capable. The exciting players at their disposal will cause plenty of headaches for their opponents.
New Zealand -19.5
$1.85 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
There is little to add to this option other than each player possess a strong attacking ability. Only Kini crossed last week but the others were not without chances. Expect them to want to get their hands on the ball as much as possible and make amends for their loss last week.
Kini, Timoko and Warbrick to Score
SGM Odds: $7 at Neds (0.5 Units)
