NRLW action was again in full swing last week with another exciting round of fixtures. After 4 weeks, just 2 competition points separates teams 2nd-7th on the competition ladder. Each week is providing fans with exhilarating action but also making it challenging for punters to find winners. That is where Before You Bet has you covered, with a detailed look at each match for the upcoming round.
NRLW Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs Newcastle Knights
Eric Tweedle Stadium – Saturday 24th August – 11am (AEST)
The Eels did what was required against the Tigers last Sunday, scraping home in an ugly way 12-10. Expected to dominate, they struggled for momentum; it was their lack of execution which let them down as they led possession (52%) and had a better completion rate (79%). They were outplayed in other areas such as total metres, PCM’s and line breaks. The Knights were defeated by the Sharks, let down by their goal kicking. Despite scoring 3 tries to 2, they couldn’t grab the 2 competition points. It was a pleasing effort given they had just 46% possession and only completed at 70%. Their usual high standard was absent, and they must improve if they are to reach their potential.
This game has the Knights as favourites ($2.15 vs $1.70), with the odds impacted by the omission of Jesse Southwell for the Knights. The loss last week would’ve hurt them, and they will be desperate to bounce back here. Do not underestimate the Eels; they have spent 3 of the first 4 games on the road and will relish the opportunity to return home. They score more (17ppg vs 15ppg) and concede fewer (11ppg vs 15ppg) points that the Knights. The visitors still possess class across the field, but this game should be close.
Either Team by 8 points or less
$1.90 (2 Units)
Canberra Raiders vs North Queensland Cowboys
GIO Stadium – Saturday 24th August – 12:45pm (AEST)
The Raiders travelled to Brisbane last week and were defeated 28-22 by the Broncos. Defence was an issue for them, conceding 6 tries and missing 33 tackles. They were also poor in attack, completing at just 66% with 45% possession. The fact that they were only defeated by a converted try highlights the fight within this team. The Cowboys produced a stunning 11-10 upset win over the Titans at home with a Dibb FG sending them ahead with 5 minutes remaining. With more possession (51%) and a superior completion rate (78%), they failed to make more metres or PCM’s. They also missed 37 tackles. It was a confidence building victory and should serve them well moving forward.
The Raiders have experienced a tough draw to start the season and that is why the Cowboys sit higher than them on the ladder. The home team appears more competent across the park but will miss Soliola in the back row. The confidence the Cowboys will gain from last week will place them with a chance of winning this game but they are still outsiders ($1.70 vs $2.15). Scoring points has been a challenge this year for the visitors averaging just 13ppg (Raiders 22ppg). Despite their defence appearing stronger (Raiders 22ppg vs Cowboys 19ppg), they may struggle to match it with their more dynamic opponent.
Raiders -2.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Gold Coast Titans vs Sydney Roosters
Cbus Super Stadium – Sunday 25th August – 12pm (AEST)
The Titans were upset by the Cowboys 11-10 in Townsville last week, failing to turn their dominance into points. Despite having less possession (49%) and only completing at 72%, they averaged 9.8m per carry, had more PCM’s and missed fewer tackles. The second consecutive loss meant they also dropped out of the Top 4. There were no such issues for the Roosters in their 28-8 victory over the Dragons, appearing to be a class above throughout the match. The 5 try performance was established by dominating every area; making over 200m more and having 100+ PCM’s highlights their strength over their opponents. It was another sign of the talent within this team.
Following their defeat last week, the Titans will be up for this contest. On top of playing a team as good as the Roosters, they will want to push their way back into Finals contention. They are outsiders ($2.25 vs $1.65) and are boosted by the return of a few key players. The reshuffle of the Roosters pack is undoubtedly made to combat the Titans strength in this area. Expect a tight game for majority of this contest; there isn’t much between these two sides and the Roosters will also have ‘revenge’ on their back of their minds after the Titans upset them in the Finals last year.
Roosters -2.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Wests Tigers vs Brisbane Broncos
Leichhardt Oval – Sunday 25th August – 1:45pm (AEST)
The Tigers fell agonisingly short of their first victory of the season last week, defeated 12-10 by the Eels. For a team which has struggled since its inception, averaging 9.3m per carry, having more PCM’s and creating 5 line breaks is a positive. Unfortunately, they were let down by missing 52 tackles and must improve on their defensive structure moving forward. The Broncos overcame the Raiders by using their ball control and execution to their advantage. Scoring 6 tries, they made good use of the 55% possession and 78% completion rate. They also averaged 9.7m per carry, had more PCM’s, more line breaks and missed fewer tackles. It was a sign that this talented team is finding momentum as they build into the season.
The Tigers are still battling a horror injury toll this year and appear understrength against the more fancied Broncos team. This is reflected in the odds, where they are large outsiders ($5 vs $1.17). Unfortunately for the home team, this game is the Broncos to lose. It is also a matter of ‘how much’ they win by. The point scoring ability displayed last week, on top of previous weeks, suggests that the Broncos should relish the challenge. The Tigers will try and drag them into a defensive battle and target their attacking weapons. While that will work to some extent, the Broncos will eventually break them down over 70 minutes.
Broncos 13+
$1.80 (2 Units)
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks
WIN Stadium – Sunday 25th August – 6:10pm (AEST)
The Dragons were outplayed and outclassed by the Roosters last week, defeated 28-8. Trying their best, unfortunately, that wasn’t good enough. They were let down by only 47% possession and completing at just 69%. This meant that they trailed in all key statistics, compounded by missing 42 tackles. The Sharks kept their undefeated season going with an impressive 14-12 win over the Knights at home. Despite scoring fewer tries, they managed to demonstrate poise; they commanded 54% possession and completed at 79%. They also averaged 9.6m per carry and missed just 23 tackles. They are deserving of their standing at the top of the competition ladder.
This game is destined to be a close one. The rivalry between the two clubs will ensure each push boundaries in this contest. The odds would suggest otherwise though, with the Dragons listed as long outsiders ($3.10 vs $1.38). This may be impacted by coach Soward’s decision to again make several personnel and positional changes. The Sharks are a settled but lose Byers to Holmes. While last week’s match would’ve taken a lot out of them, the Dragons defeat by the Roosters would’ve also sapped their energy. With their shortcomings highlighted last week, the Sharks will aim to exploit them over 70 minutes. In the end, it may be too much for the home team to hold out.
Sharks 1-12
$2.60 (1.5 Units)
