Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, October 12th.
It's Caulfield Guineas Day, which is one of the biggest race days on the Australian racing calendar, featuring four Group 1s: the Caulfield Guineas, Thousand Guineas, Caulfield Stakes and Toorak Handicap.
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the True position.
You can also check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips for Spring Champion Stakes Day at Randwick.
Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, October 12th
Best Bet: Race 3 - (2) Loving Gaby
Best Value: Race 2 - (4) Manolo Blahniq
Race 1
Eight two-year-olds on debut to open the 10-race card. There's no need to get involved here. Personally I thought (1) Rock of Kryptonite went to the line better in its jump out than the stablemate (6) Euphoric Summer. (5) Bella Nipotina jumped out nicely, while (7) Latin Affair jumped out well on the synthetic track. It's a bit of a lottery so I'll stay out.
(1) Rock Of Kryptonite
$4.40
Race 2
Happy to take on the favourite (2) Renewal here who always runs a blinder first up but doesn't always replicate that second up. (3) Rox The Castle looks your likely leader and there doesn't look to be a whole lot of competition up front. He's flying, with two wins and two 2nds from his past four starts, all of which have been over this distance. I think the big value in the race could be (4) Manolo Blahniq at $21. He always tends to need his first up run and he was unsuited over 1200m at the Valley, where he settled a long way back and never really got into it. He's much better suited up to 1400m and he also improves second up. His record at this track and distance is superb, with a win and three 2nds from four starts. From the good draw, if he can sit a touch closer in the run, I expect him to run a good race at big odds. (7) Waging War only finished half-a-length behind Rox The Castle last start despite sitting wide without cover throughout the race so based on that he should be competitive. (9) Mandela Effect was ridden poorly first up at Moonee Valley but ran the best final splits of the race. With the inside gate and Williams on board, he should be given a much better chance to win this and I'll stick with him after backing him first up.
Value: (4) Manolo Blahniq $21
Race 3
(2) Loving Gaby was terrific winning the G3 Scarborough Stakes first up at the Valley, where she defeated a race-fit Exhilarates and Villami, who had form behind Libertini. I think that Scarborough Stakes will ultimately prove a pretty decent form race and Gaby should only improve on what we saw first up. They've kept her to the sprints this preparation and it looks to be paying dividends. She maps a touch awkwardly from barrier 9 but with any luck I think she'll be winning again here. (6) California Zimbol showed plenty as a two-year-old in Brisbane and he returned with a dominant victory first up at Canterbury. This is obviously much harder but he can definitely measure up. I think the market has it right with him as the biggest danger to the favourite. I'd be surprised if something else was to win outside those two.
Race 4
This is one of the toughest races on the card. Just about anything could win this. (1) Manicure was a pretty smart winner first up and her second up record is very good - she's yet to finish out of the top two from three starts. She's drawn awkardly again in barrier 12 but she won from there last start so there's no reason she can't do so again. Her stablemate (3) Resin could be a bit of value in the race at $26. She didn't do much first up but that was a strong form race and she tends to improve significantly second up. She's got two wins and a 2nd from three starts when second up from a break so with Williams booked to ride, expect her to improve sharply. (4) Embrace Me had no luck whatsoever behind Manicure last start so she's certainly not hopeless from the good draw with Ollie on board. (10) Sweet Scandal was a surprise winner first up and looks to have returned to her best. She's won 6 of her 14 starts and looks big odds for a Waller runner. (11) Platinum Angel ran well first up and should improve today. Plenty of chances in this!
Race 5
It will be very interesting to see how (3) Steel Prince goes here. He's currently favourite and should be ready to do something third up from a spell but this race carries a potential penalty for the Melbourne Cup if he wins, and given he's already in the Cup, I'm not sure they'll be desperate to win this and cop a penalty. His record at 2400m is impeccable, having yet to finish out of the top two from six attempts, so it will be fascinating to watch the betting in particular. (1) Prince Of Arran returns to Australia after winning the Lexus last year and then running 3rd in the Cup. Unlike last year, he comes here having run recently as opposed to showing up fresh. His best form would quite clearly find him very competitive in this. (5) Haky is a bit of value at double figure odds. He comes here having won over 2400m three starts back in France and followed that with consecutive placings. He ran 3rd to Marmelo two starts back and we know how well that form lines up here, so with an undefeated record at the distance I think he's a good chance here. (13) The Chosen One gets blinkers on for the first time third up from a spell here. I expected him to be competitive in the Underwood Stakes last start but he was disappointing. He might be able to improve sharply with the gear changes.
Also backing: (1) Prince Of Arran $8.50
Race 6 - Thousand Guineas
With any luck surely (3) Flit wins this. James Cummings put big wraps on this filly at the end of last preparation and she hasn't done much wrong this preparation. First up she bumped into Libertini in Sydney and last start she was given absolutely none by Bowman in the Thousand Guineas Prelude. I think we'll see her ridden much closer to the speed from the inside gate today, rather than sit near the back and wait for luck. Hugh rarely gets it wrong in the big ones so I'm sure he will atone for his ride on her last start. (7) Missile Mantra hasn't had any luck all prep. Her racing pattern and her barrier draws have meant she's been left with too much to do in her recent starts. She ran the clear best final 200m of the race in the Prelude and she gets the blinkers on for the first time here. If she can get a run in the three-wide line and be within striking distance on the corner, she might just sweep home over the top of them. (10) Emeralds brings a bit of a different formline to the race. She was beaten 1.3L first up by Yao Dash and Funstar, and then ran 4th in the Tea Rose Stakes last start behind Funstar, Probabeel and Libertini. That sort of form is red hot and she deserves more respect than what I think the market is giving her. (4) Acting is the leader in the race and she hasn't put a foot wrong in recent starts. She won the Prelude fresh off a six-week break and should be better suited with that run under the belt. Drawn well, Williams on, she ticks plenty of boxes. (1) Lyre can't be underestimated. She's ready to peak for this and Anthony Freedman's record in Group 1s is terrific. The good barrier could make the difference for her today.
Value: (7) Missile Mantra $10 & (10) Emeralds $12
Race 7 - Caulfield Stakes
Really only two horses I'm interested in here in the Caulfield Stakes. (5) Avilius looks tremendously hard to beat, with the only little query being the firm track. He was back to his dominant best on the soft ground last start in Sydney. I think the little negative of the firmer ground will be offset somewhat by the step up to 2000m, which should suit him much better than the mile at this stage of his preparation. Simply, if he runs to his best I think he'll be winning this. (2) Gailo Chop is the value. He is flying this horse. He did a very good job to battle on as well as he did for 3rd in the Underwood Stakes last start after sitting wide without cover throughout the race. He draws barrier 1 today so he could probably even kick through to lead if he wanted as there doesn't look to be a whole lot of speed in the race. He's got three wins and two placings from six starts at Caulfield, has won seven times at the distance and his only previous start at the track and distance was in this race two years ago, which he won. He's finished in the top two in four of his five starts when third up from a spell so everything looks to line up perfectly for him. At $11 he's a decent price.
Value: (2) Gailo Chop $11
Race 8 - Caulfield Guineas
I've looked at this race a million times and I still struggle to work it out. The barrier draw has certainly opened the race right up. I've decided to just back the best horse in the race and I think that's (2) Dalasan. It really wouldn't surprise me if we saw a similar Hugh Bowman ride to the one he gave Press Statement back in 2015, where he jumped from the wide gate and sped across to lead. I doubt they'll want to lead but I think he'll be very positive out of the gate to try and offset the wide gate. He took forever to pick up last start but he charged through the line once he got balanced. The blinkers are applied here and the jockey change could be the difference for him today. (3) Alligator Blood hasn't done much wrong at all given he's won all five career starts and beat Dalasan last start, but he did seem to get everything in his favour on that occasion. (4) Kubrick draws horribly and I think they'll ride him conservatively. He comes out of the very top three-year-old races in Sydney, which I think are probably superior form races to the ones in Melbourne. (5) Super Seth was a complete forgive run last start after being inconvenienced by the riderless horse last. He's drawn much better in barrier 5 for this, the winkers go on and I think he will appreciate the mile. He shouldn't be discounted and the stable always have them spot on for grand final day. (15) Soul Patch is another that draws poorly but he's a very nice horse. Whether he's up to this grade just yet is debatable but I'm intrigued to see how he measures up.
Value: (5) Super Seth $11
Race 9 - Toorak Handicap
Another extremely tough race to work out and any number of horses could win this. (5) Night's Watch looks to have been clearly set for this. He probably should have gone close to winning first up when he was held up at a crucial stage behind Age Of Chivalry. He then stepped up to WFA Group 1 company and ran home in the third-fastest final 400m of the race. He drops back to handicap conditions third up now and there looks plenty of pace on to set it up for a horse lik him back in the field. My only concern is his relatively poor third up record but this is his first prep with Waller and Waller's got his Group 1 horses flying. (1) Madison County had no luck whatsoever first up in the Rupert Clarke Stakes. Draws horribly but wide barrier draws haven't exactly been a disadvantage in recent editions of this race. Terrific second up record and Damian Lane has on this race the past two years from similar draws so he's got the right jockey on board. (11) Age Of Chivalry will put himself right on speed. He's flying and can run well again. (12) Fierce Impact ran a bottler first up in Sydney and the horse who beat him then went on to win the Epsom. That reads very well for this but the horse tends to mix his form and his only start in Melbourne resulted in failure. (13) Mahamedeis is a sneaky chance. I don't know if he is quite a legitimate Group 1 horse but he profiles well for this. He ran 2nd to Homesman two starts back (which is legit Group 1 form) and then dropped back to 1400m last start which wasn't ideal for him. Back up to the mile now, drawn soft and gets down in the weights. Not underestimating him. (14) Princess Jenni tackles the boys for the first time in her career but she's a very classy mare and comes into this off a strong win.
Value: (1) Madison County $17
Race 10
Really only interested in (2) Trekking and (3) The Bostonian here. They ran 8th and 9th respectively in the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley first up. I think both should be suited up to 1100m here. Trekking finished half-a-length ahead of The Bostonian in the Moir and ran home in better closing splits so I'll stick with him to win this. He draws well, has three wins at the distance and has a good second up record, so he should prove tough to beat. The Bostonian also has a good second up record but up until last start, he was undefeated first up, though he does look much better suited from barrier 3 rather than 13 that he started from in the Moir.
Value: (3) The Bostonian $7.00
