Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, May 29th.
Tim has gone through every race on the card below.
Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 29th
Best Bet: Race 7 - (10) True Grit
Best Value Bet: Race 1 - (10) Flying Godspell
RACE 1
Open affair to kick off the card, with a Class 4 over the 1200m. The inside few barriers tend to be favoured here. I think there's a decent roughie that's worth a spec at big odds and that's (10) Flying Godspell. This horse doesn't win out of turn - he's won just three of his 32 career starts. His form this preparation looks particularly ordinary too, beaten 13L in both his first and second up runs. However, he always tends to need that first run and he had no luck whatsoever last start when trapped wide. He's actually trialled relatively well here at Happy Valley since that run, where he showed good speed to lead and was only run down on the line by a horse yet to debut (looked handy). This is the first time in 12 months that he's raced at Happy Valley, so he should find the race a bit easier than what he's been facing at Sha Tin. Importantly, he's drawn barrier 1 tonight, which is premium over 1200m at the Valley. I think they'll try and lead and hopefully he does. He might be able to hang on for a place. (9) Bullish Brother is racing consistently and finds a winnable race. (8) Lightning Steed was beaten less than a length last start and gets Purton back on board. I could certainly make a case at double figure odds. (3) Wonderful Journey draws low which should help his cause.
(10) Flying Godspell E/W
$23
RACE 2
Low quality race, as are most Class 5s. Moreira's ride (3) Very Sweet Orange has been well-backed in early betting from $2.80 into $2.10, although there is still $2.35 available. He's placed in just two of his 14 starts, so that gives you an indication of the kind of race this is. His past few efforts here at the Valley haven't been bad and most importantly, he drops from Class 4 to Class 5 for the first time in his career tonight. He'll be the one to beat from the good draw. Purton takes the ride on (7) Whistle Up, which looks the value in the race at $12. He's drawn very awkwardly in barrier 11, but Zac could get them home from anywhere at the moment. He resumed from a spell with a good effort to be beaten a neck at Sha Tin, and didn't really get things go his way last start here at the Valley. Purton takes over from Ben So which is about as big a jockey change you can get. I think the horse has a win in him, just needs things to go his way. (6) Starlot was a last-start winner over 1200m here at the Valley. Drops in trip to the 1000m tonight but he really should run well again.
Value: (7) Whistle Up $12
(3) Very Sweet Orange
$2.35
RACE 3
Tough race. Backing (3) Clement Legend here. He put four wins in a row together earlier this season, two of which came at this track and distance. Since then he's continued to run well without winning and he returns to the 2200m tonight, which should see him go close to winning another. (9) Fortune Patrol put the writing on the wall two starts ago and backed it up with a win over 1800m at Sha Tin last start. He rises in class to Class 4 tonight but he carries no weight and draws the inside barrier. (10) The Joy Of Giving broke through over this distance in Class 5 back in January and has since performed well in Class 4. He didn't do much last start when dropping back from 2200m to 1650m, but he's straight back up in trip tonight and gets Joao Moreira booked to ride. Moreira has had eight rides for Michael Chang this season, resulting in four wins and a 2nd, as well as a 111% ROI. (7) Holy Unicorn isn't hopeless at big odds.
RACE 4
It's always risky to take odds on about a horse in Hong Kong, especially at Happy Valley, but (4) Le Terroir is quite clearly the one to beat here. Purton has taken the reigns in his past two starts and unsurprisingly, they've been the best two runs of his career. Last start was his first win and he did it pretty convincingly, thanks to a gem of a ride from barrier 11. He won't have to do any work tonight from barrier 2 so with even luck he should be winning again.
RACE 5
This is just about a no bet race. I've ended up with (3) Perfect To Play on top but that's basically by default and with no great confidence. He's a winner of just one race from 20 starts so that tells you what you need to know. But he finds a very winnable race tonight, draws well and gets Purton on for the first time. (6) Smart Rocket probably would have been my top pick if he hadn't have drawn barrier 12. He comes off a win over the mile at Sha Tin and gets Moreira in the saddle for John Moore, who has his flying stable. (8) Wonder Express improved sharply last start and the speedmap has him leading this field at a slow tempo. I wouldn't be discounting anything here.
RACE 6
Good little sprint but a tough betting race. (8) Frustrated goes on top but I'm afraid the hot pace might just bring him undone. Hopefully he can either jump clearly in front or sit on the leaders' heels with a bit of cover. He recoreded two wins in Class 4 and after a luckless run in his first go in Class 3, he bounced back to run 2nd last time out. He was beaten a length by (4) Hong Kong Bet on that occasion, but I think he can turn the tables tonight. Hong Kong Bet drew barrier 1 in that race, but he rises 3kg in the weights tonight and starts from barrier 8, so he won't get the same run he got when winning. Frustrated stays at the same weight and that could be enough to see him reverse the result. (5) Magic Legend has placed in his past two starts over the track and distance. He went down as the short-priced favourite last start but he's capable, especially if the pace is on. The negative for him tonight is the fact Purton jumps off to ride (3) Dream Come True, who has a good record at the track and distance. Purton rode him to victory three starts ago and jumps back aboard tonight. He led all the way when winning that race but it will be a differently run race tonight because he won't be able to lead. He should sit off the pace and it would be no surprise if he was to round them up. (10) Healthy Luck should box seat from barrier 2. He also comes out of the same race behind Hong Kong Bet and Frustrated last start, where he was trapped wide without cover and was still only beaten 2.5L. Prior to that he placed behind Yee Cheong Baby, who has since come out and won again. Tough one to sort out, but I'll be bcking Frustrated ($3.50) and Healthy Luck ($6.50), with a saver on Dream Come True ($5.50).
Value: (10) Healthy Luck $6.50
RACE 7
This race looks in the keeping of (10) True Grit, who is undefeated this preparation from two starts at this track and distance. His win last start was a little bit freakish - they certainly don't win like that often at Happy Valley. He lost ground after jumping and settled a long way back in the run on the rail, before weaving his way through horses in the straight to scoe impressively. He rises in class tonight but draws well in barrier 2 and gets in light at the weights. He looks a typical lghtly-raced John Size horse who will just keep winning on his way through the grades. (12) Universal Go Go could be an each way chance at $15. He's got a good record at the track and distance and he ran 2nd to True Grit last start, beaten half-a-length. His only poor run in recent times was when he drew the carpark, so with a good draw tonight and a light weight, he can be competitive.
Value: (12) Universal Go Go $15
RACE 8
Another competitive one to finish off the night. Zac Purton is booked to ride (6) First Responder at 120lb for John Moore. In fact, he's riding two pounds over it's official weight of 118lb. Whenever he rides that weight, you have to take notice, and especially for John Moore. The two are striking at 44% this season from 55 runners, with a ROI of 58%. The horse went close over track and distance two starts ago, before being beaten 2L at Sha Tin last start. Back to the Valley tonight, Purton on and will be hard to beat despite the awkward draw. (4) Coby Oppa is the horse to beat. He comes off a midweek win at Sha Tin on the dirt. Still open to plenty of improvement and draws well. (1) Breeders' Star could be the each way value in the race at double figures. He's finished no closer than 8th in his past four runs but they've all been in Class 2. He drops back to Class 3 tonight and the last time he raced in Class 3, he won by 1.3L over this track and distance. He's drawn barrier 1 tonight which is a huge bonus so expect sharp improvement.
Value: (1) Breeders' Star $12
(6) First Responder
$3.80
