Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, March 30th.
The Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes and Group 1 Tancred Stakes headline the meeting, which is likely to be on a very wet track judging by the weather forecast. The rail moves out 3m from last week and is in the 6m position for today's meeting.
Check out our selections for every race below!
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 Verry Elleegant
Best Value: Race 8 Mister Sea Wolf
RACE 1
Not a betting race to kick things off for me with Belleview Hill at $1.90. I think he'll win but on this track, it's a bit short for me to be backing a horse that's never seen heavy ground and is tackling 1400m for the first time. With that said, it could come down to race fitness and he'll be the fittest horse in this race being from the Waterhouse yard. He's also bred to love the wet . La Tene has had two runs runs over 1400m leading into this and has won both. Both of those have been in Melbourne and she comes up to Sydney for the first time now. The stable is flying so she can't be discounted. Fortress Command bolted in at the provincials last start. Tackles a much, much harder race here but can hardly have been more impressive last start.
RACE 2
I didn't want to back anything to begin with here and now half the field has been scratched anyway, leaving us with just six runners to go around. Moss 'N' Dale is without question the best wet tracker in the field. He's had six starts on Heavy ground for four wins and two 2nd placings. He comes into this, however, having beat just one runner home in his first two runs back from a spell. Granted, they were very tough races and this is a huge step back in class, but it's hard to back him confidently. Goathland won first up and ran admirably again last start. Blake Shinn is undefeated on the horse and he goes back on today. Taikomochi will lead and will take plenty of catching, while All Too Soon probably should have finished closer last week and loves the wet. Libran a knockout chance second up. Terrible race.
RACE 3
Madison County looks the best of the Kiwis after running home in similar sectionals to The Autumn Sun last start. It's her first go at 2000m but the way she hit the line in the Randwick Guineas suggests she'll be able to handle the rise in trip. She's never run on heavy ground before but she's won three from six on soft ground so hopefully that's an indicator that it won't be a problem. In A Twinkling and Platinum Invader both come out of the New Zealand Derby last start, where In A Twinkling ran 2nd (beaten 0.2L) and Platinum Invader ran 3rd (beaten 1.5L). On that run, you'd suggest In A Twinling had the measure of Platinum Invader, but Platinum Invader has won three from six on wet ground and that Derby was run on a good track. The wet ground today could actually shift things into Platinum Invader's favour. Cossetot never runs a bad race and is two from two on wet ground.
Value: Platinum Invader $8.00
RACE 4
With Alizee out it looks a nice race for Dyslexic, who was huge against the boys last start, only being run down late by FIfty Stars. She drops back to mares grade now and that should make her very hard to beat. Proved last start that she handles the heavy ground and should be at her peak third up from a spell today. She was well backed with Alizee still in the field so clearly she's the one to be on. Sedanzer hasn't shown her best form for a while but she's won four of her five starts when second up from a spell. She's also one from one at the track and distance and one from one on heavy ground. She's worth having a saver on at $7.50. Princess Posh is flying and there's no reason she can't go very close, while Daysee Doom is the only Group 1 winner in the field and deserves respect.
RACE 5
Unfortunately Brave Song is scratched, as he was one of the only runners all day that I wanted to back. If Estijaab was at her best she'd be wining this, but I'm not sure how to assess her after last start. She looked very flat behind Ball Of Muscle and Redzel and the form out of that race has hardly stood up with Redzel performing poorly last week. Perhaps it was a case of Estijaab being a touch plain second up after a gut buster first up but I think the jury could be out after today. I'm going the way of Ardrossan, who has returned to his old form now that he's based back in New Zealand. He ran a cracker behind Melody Belle last start, beaten just 0.3L, and won his other two starts this prep prior to that. Is undefeated on soft ground and trialled well enough the other day to suggest he can win this. Maximus could be the value at $9.00. He's been slaughtered in two starts this preparation and although he's stepping up in grade today, the horse is flying.
RACE 6 - VINERY STUD STAKES
The wetter the better for Verry Elleegant and she's going to take a stack of beating in the Vinery. She was dominant last start in the Phar Lap Stakes over 1500m on heavy ground and she rises in trip to the 2000m today. I doubt she's going to settle but the nose roll comes off today and the ear muffs will be worn during the race. She'll have no problems with the trip and no problems with the ground, and her turn of foot is probably the best in the race. Looks one of the best bets of the day. Nakeeta Jane is already a G1 winner and she didn't lose any admirers behind The Autumn Sun last start. She was actually very well backed to win that race too. It's her first go at 2000m and her first go on heavy ground today but she's bred to handle the conditions and she's a quality filly so she'll be right around the mark again. Aristia will stay all day, while Pohutakawa, Frankley Awesome and Scarlet Dream ran the trifecta in the Kembla Grange Classic last start, so it will be interesting to see how that form holds up here. Worth noting that James McDonald jumps off Pohutakawa to keep the ride on Verry Elleegant.
RACE 7 - TANCRED STAKES
Avilius will just be winning this. Take out his run at Flemington in the Australian Cup two starts ago (where he pulled up with a black eye) and his Australian form looks imperious. Overall, he's had 10 starts in Australia and has won seven of them, and he's undefeated in Sydney. He absolutely smoked them on the heavy ground last start and if he repeats that kind of effort, he'll win again here. Red Cardinal is flying, with two wins from as many starts this preparation. He's undefeated at Rosehill and has never finished outside the top two from four starts at the distance. Big Duke is ticking along beautifully and should be able to fill a placing.
RACE 8
I reckon there's a terrific each way bet in the form of Mister Sea Wolf here. He's got three wins and four placings from eight starts when first up from a spell and he's placed in every start at this track and distance. Has run well in both starts on heavy ground, which were both back in Ireland, and has won two jumpouts in Melbourne leading into today's race. James McDonald taking the ride is a big hint that he can run a really bold race and in a field where not much stands out, I think he's a great price at $12. My Nordic Hero might need the run but he's another at double figure odds that could go well first up. He went close first up last prep and should handle conditions. Mask Of Time will be right in the finish with the track being as wet as it is, but he just struggles to win. Playing Mister Sea Wolf, something small on My Nordic Hero and a saver on Mask of Time.
Value: My Nordic Hero $11
RACE 9
Star Of The Seas has returned in terrific form this preparation and won cosily over this track and distance last start on a Heavy 10. Likely to get similar conditions today and shuld prove hard to beat. Waller was talking about a Doncaster with him so he'd want to be going close in this. I'll be taking him on at the price today though and siding with the horse he beat last start in Mahalangur. He was only first up last start while Star Of The Seas was third up. I thought his effort was good all things considered and he gets a little weight swing in his favour today. Should be much fitter for this and at $4.00 he goes on top. I'll definitely be having something on Zourkhan first up with JMac on board. He flies fresh and has a terrific record on heavy ground so $9.50 for him appeals.
