The biggest week on the Australian racing calendar is upon us and we kick things off with our 2016 Derby Day Betting Tips at Flemington this weekend, which hosts four Group 1's on a nine-race card.
The track is a Good 4 with the rail is in the True position and the weather forecast is perfect.
We have comments and betting tips for the entire card, including an in-depth look at the main chances in each of the Group 1's!
2016 Derby Day Betting Tips
Race 1 - The Carbine Club Stakes 1600m - Group 3
Fantastic race to kick off with about five legitimate winning chances.
Going to stick with COMIN' THROUGH for Chris Waller here who has only had the two starts. Last start he came from dead last to charge home and run 2nd. It was only a BM70 race, but the time he clocked was sizzling and he should appreciate Flemington's big straight.
I think the biggest dangers are HEY DOC and ACATOUR. Hey Doc comes through the Caulfield Guineas where he finished 3rd, while Acatour was ridden a bit upside down last start and should put in a good run if ridden off the speed today.
The two Godolphin horses are in with a chance. MORTON'S FORK had absolutely no luck last start and went to the line under a hold, while BEZEL has gone through the grades impressively in Sydney - interesting to note James McDonald chose to ride Bezel over Morton's Fork.
Best value in the race is Mount Panorama at 20/1 - he was another that saw no daylight last start.
Tip: COMIN' THROUGH
Race 2 - Mumm Wakeful Stakes 2000m - Group 2
I originally found it very hard to split Sebring Dream and Tiamo Grace here but there are a couple at longer odds that appeal.
BELLA SORELLASTRA is one of those and comes up $14. Two starts ago she finished runner up to Serenely Discreet who looks very smart, and last start she basically finished alongside Sebring Dream despite copping a big check about 200m from home. Her run was every bit as good as Sebring Dream - one comes up $5 and the other is $14. She will go back from barrier 15 but Flemington suits her.
The other is WATERLOO SUNSET who also comes out of the Serenely Discreet race. She finished 3rd behind the winner and Bella Sorellastra before failing last start. She gets the tongue tie on here and the big booking of Joao Moreira. Draws barrier 3 so gets a great run and she also sits at the $15 mark.
SEBRING DREAM went back to last and made a wide looping run and finished off nicely despite covering ground last start. Much better suited to Flemington but despite originally having her on top, I'd rather take the $14 about Bella Sorellastra.
TIAMO GRACE is favourite here after being desperately unlucky in the same race as Sebring Dream last start. She copped a big check at the 400m mark and then was held up before bursting through late. It was the eye-catching run and she's a definite winning chance.
PRETTY PUNK is worth keeping safe.
Tip: BELLA SORELLASTRA & WATERLOO SUNSET E/W
Race 3 - Sensis Stakes 1100m - Group 3
This is what you call a dartboard job. There's about 10 horses that could win this, so don't be surprised if a surprise result gets thrown up.
Happy to stick with SHEIDEL who is rock hard fit and comes off a Group 3 win last start. It's her first time up the straight but she loves this distance and doesn't know how to run a bad race. Moreira booked to ride, the wide barrier is a plus, she should be tough to beat.
Behind her there are plenty at big odds capable of running a big race. ALMIGHTY GIRL was a complete forgive run last start but previous to that she looked sharp in a jump out. Her only run down the straight was a runner up finish to Heatherly so $19 appeals.
VIDDORA was very unlucky in the Caulfield Sprint last start, which looks to be a strong form race with the likes of Our Boy Malachi, Faatinah and Lanka Rupee in the top 3. He's won 4 from 7 over the distance and the wide draw should be beneficial down the straight.
TEMPT ME NOT, PALAZZO PUBBLICO, VEZALAY, PRIVATE SECRETARY, RULE THE RIVER are all others to include in a very open race.
Tip: SHEIDEL
Race 4 - Lexus Stakes 2500m - Group 3
The price is all but gone now but very keen on OCEANOGRAPHER here for Godolphin. He was a late entry into the race to ensure he gets a Melbourne Cup start and he looks very hard to beat after a huge run in the Geelong Cup. He settled last there and made a big looping run and still ran on very well, so with plenty of time to get going in the straight he looks well placed. $2.70 still available but I think he will start shorter than that. One of the best bets of the day.
TOM MELBOURNE looks hardest to beat after he bounced back into some form last start. He had a few gear changes for that run and it looks to have sorted him out, and from barrier 2 he gets a very soft run here.
Best value could be BLACK TOMAHAWK who missed the Geelong Cup and comes into this off a 35 day break. He is ultra consistent around this distance and gets blinkers on for the first time. $23 available for him.
Tip: OCEANOGRAPHER
Race 5 - Coolmoore Stud Stakes 1200m - Group 1
What a cracking race this is and I will go so far as to say this is the race of the Spring! I've found it incredibly difficult to separate EXTREME CHOICE, ASTER and STAR TURN.
EXTREME CHOICE couldn't have been more impressive first up in winning the Moir Stakes. He arguably should be undefeated but for his disastrous run in the Slipper. The only question I have over him is the strength of the field that he beat in the Moir; Buffering has been retired now, Chautauqua wasn't anywhere near his best, and it was Heatherly and Wild Rain that filled the placings behind him. His win was very impressive, but was he aided by a few of the opposition being below par? I don't think the 1200m is an issue for him and of the three he is probably best suited to the straight, in my opinion.
ASTERN ran enormous last start, coming from the rear to run 2nd to Russian Revolution. They don't run much quicker final 600m's than what he recorded and if he's a bit closer to the speed today he could blow them away. My big concern with him is the thought of Exosphere last year, who had a similar spruik coming down from Sydney but failed miserably in Melbourne. O'Shea doesn't have a good Group 1 record in Melbourne so I'm mindful of that happening again.
STAR TURN is the interesting one. Not as highly fancied as the other two, but does tick a lot of boxes for me. He arguably should have beaten Astern second up when Berry was a bit too cute. He then came out and flogged some very good horses last start, such as Malaguerra and Fell Swoop (who has since run 2nd in the Manikato).
RUSSIAN REVOLUTION is undefeated and did beat Astern last start, while FLYING ARTIE isn't far behind Extreme Choice according to Mick Price, and both warrant consideration.
Reluctantly sticking with STAR TURN here ahead of Astern and Extreme Choice, but I might just sit back and enjoy this one!
Tip: STAR TURN
Race 6 - Myer Classic 1600m - Group 1
Another exceptional race with any number of winning chances! There's two I want to be on here at decent odds.
DON'T DOUBT MAMMA looks ready to win a Group 1 after successive Group 2 victories. She loves this track, with 3 wins from 6 starts, and her win last start was very impressive. She defeated Kaniana who has since come out and won last weekend. She'll go back from barrier 13 but has a super turn of foot that can run these down. $7.50 appeals.
The other one I want to have something on is EURO ANGEL who sat three-deep the trip last start and still accelerated away from her rivals. She's had just the six starts so this might come a bit soon, but I think she's flying and I'm happy to back her at $13. Will need a good ride from barrier 11 but Zac Purton is a good booking.
Behind those there are plenty in with chances. FIRST SEAL is an obvious choice after winning at Group 2 level last start. She will get a great run from barrier 1. DANISH TWIST steps up to 1600m for the first time but she brings strong form behind Takedown and Our Boy Malachi. SERENE MAJESTY worked home well without much luck last start, DIXIE BLOSSOMS is flying.
Happy to take on the two three-year-olds WHISPERING BROOK and I AM A STAR despite them carrying only 49kg.
Tip: DON'T DOUBT MAMMA / EURO ANGEL
Race 7 - AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m - Group 1
Full field of 16 here but about 10 of those won't run the trip and there looks to be a fair amount of deadwood in the race.
SACRED ELIXIR is the clear on top selection for me and although the price is all but gone, I think with even luck he just wins this. He's got plenty of class on the rest of these, and his win last start was even better than it looked. Moonee Valley certainly isn't his track, he found trouble and still proved too good. The only problem I have is barrier 1 as it might mean he has a few traffic issues and tiring horses falling back on him, but if he gets room in the straight, look out! Up there with best bet of the day.
In behind him there are a few that could win if things go pear shaped. We were on SO SI BON last start and he ran well. Again, I don't think Moonee Valley is his track but he will love Flemington. Bowman takes over and he is in with a definite chance.
SWEAR brings strong form behind Yankee Rose which clearly puts him in contention, while INFERENCE has been running as if he will really appreciate the step up in trip. BEACH LIFE the other one to consider.
Very happy to be on Sacred Elixir here who is close to best bet of the day with $3.10 still available. I think he starts shorter.
Tip: SACRED ELIXIR
Race 8 - Cantala Stakes 1600m - Group 1
Another absolute dartboard job here but goods odds on offer if we find the winner!
We were on MACKINTOSH in the Epsom and he ran a huge race at double figure odds and I think he can run another big race here at $9. This is still only his third run back from a spell so if anything he should improve on last start. Gets in light and Moreira is a good booking but he will need to produce a bit of magic from barrier 12.
I really think PALENTINO can bounce back here. Last start was very skeptical when he drifted in betting all the way up to the race and then ran last, but Flemington is his track. From 4 races at Flemington he's got 3 wins and a 2nd, ad remains undefeated over the 1600m here. Gets a perfect run from barrier 7 and if you go on his run two starts back where he beat Black Heart Bart then $9 looks good.
HE'S OUR ROKKI is flying and is undefeated this prep, including a last start win at Group 1 level. Draws a bit sticky in barrier 11 but he can't be left out. LE ROMAIN holds a definite chance here. He was left facing the breeze last start i the Epsom so with a bit more cover from barrier 8 here he should give this a shake at $14. Happy to take on the three-year-old SEABURGE, and I think the 1600m will be a bit sharp for THE UNITED STATES against this quality of field.
Best value could be GOOD PROJECT who draws the inside gate and should get a very good run. He looks set to peak third up from a spell here and is $19 so include him in everything.
Tip: MACKINTOSH / PALENTINO
Race 9 - TAB.com.au Stakes 1200m - Group 2
Three main hopes here, and I'm happy to play around the favourite Southern Legend.
I'm going to give COUNTERATTACK one last chance to redeem himself, back in trip to the 1200m and with the blinkers back on. He should have bolted in first up and on that occasion he finished ahead of Southern Legend by half a length - it should have been much more than that. Didn't run the 1600m last start so the freshen up and drop in trip suits. Has placed down the straight before and I think he's a good chance at $6.50.
KEEN ARRAY is flying and there's nothing to suggest he won't go very close here. He won last start comfortably - albeit the horses behind were hampered by the loose horse - and carried 59.5kg too. He drops to 56.5kg today and he's also placed down the straight before so there's no knock on him.
WE'VE GOT THIS is the third horse of interest. He loves the Flemington straight, having never missed a place over the track and distance, and the form out of his last start looks very strong after The Quarterback ran so well in the Manikato. He's weighted well and can win at $8.
Others that come under consideration include OCEAN EMBERS, ILLUSTRIOUS LAD, the favourite SOUTHERN LEGEND and even DIBAYANI.
Happy to play on Counterattack here and save on Keen Array.
Tip: COUNTERATTACK
Best Bet: Race 7 Sacred Elixir
Best Value: Race 8 Palentino
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
