This Easter Sunday we get another fun little two game slate for Round 6 of the 2025 AFL Premiership season. Things get underway later afternoon once everyone has digested their Easter lunch with Sydney hosting Port Adelaide at the SCG. Both sides are currently sitting outside the top eight but would have very serious finals aspirations, which will make this contest a fierce one. Then once night time hits we head to Marvel Stadium where the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda will square off in another match between two teams desparate to get themselves into finals. A great day of footy with these two games but as usual for us the focus will be daily fantasy.
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AFL $60,000+ Sunday
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Betting Markets
Sydney ($1.45) vs Port Adelaide ($2.76)
Points: 174.5
Line: Sydney -14.5
Western Bulldogs ($1.47) vs St Kilda ($2.42)
Points: 181.5
Line: Western Bulldogs -10.5
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Weather
Sydney – 28 degrees and sunny.
Marvel stadium – always perfect football conditions.
Lets play!
Where to Attack?
This will be a difficult slate to break down as despite the fact all sides are sitting outside the top eight currently, they’re for the most part restricting fantasy scoring to their opposition. This is particularly in the case for the Sydney and Port Adelaide matchups where neither side is giving up anything significantly above league average across the positions. I would categorically rule out inside midfielders against Port given how they have handled them this season, on the flip side potentially targeting inside midfielders against Sydney could be an option.
The second game is where I will be turning most of my attention to, playing played on the fast deck at Marvel Stadium which is expected to be high scoring with a game total of 181.5 points. St Kilda’s long-standing trend under Ross Lyon of conceding uncontested positions across half back is beginning to be evident again this season with the Saints giving up above average fantasy scores to designated kickers, general defenders and wingers/attacking half backs. Stacking up Bulldogs backs here will be an obvious play.
The Western Bulldogs continue to give up huge scores to rucks with Tim English playing that number one role, and they are once again giving up over 4 points above league average to key forwards.
Game Script – St Kilda forwards / ruck, Western Bulldogs backs
VALUE PLAYS
Mitch Owens ($8,380) will play a key role for the Saints forward line again this week and as we saw last week, he also has the opportunity to sneak into the midfield when needed (attended 32% of centre bounces last week). Owens has a season high of 76 this year but has hit ceiling scores of over 100 in the past. Given the matchup this week where the Bulldogs have been exposed up forward this looks like a solid value play.
Hugo Garcia ($9,360) is looking like a mainstay in the Saints midfield now attending over 50% of their centre bounces over the last three games. This has resulted in scores of 82, 42 and 110 over this time period and indicates a role with huge potential upside for this price point. There is also another option at a similar price in Marcus Windhager ($9,700) and even playing both together is a great value option play on a slate where finding value looks quite difficult.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Bailey Dale ($13,880) is the Bulldogs designated kicker and main attacking half back. As noted above St Kilda is averaging over 6 points above league average to attacking half backs this season and above league average to the designated kicker. These numbers were far higher the past two years so the trend is there. An alternate to spending this amount on Dale is moving down to Lachlan Bramble ($10,550) who’s at times also taking kick in duties. Combinations for a full Bulldogs backline stack are also an elite play on this slate.
PREMIUM PLAYS
Rowan Marshall ($16,160) had an absolute flying start to the year with scores of 142 and 123 in two of his first three games. Since then he’s come back to earth a touch but should have a great run at it this week going up against Tim English. The Western Bulldogs have been conceding over 10 points above league average to rucks this year and that is a trend that has been going for years, ever since English has been their number on ruck.
Jackson Macrae ($15,190) … love this as a classic revenge game for Macrae who started the year in fine form including three straight games above 109 (and a ceiling score of 153 points). He copped a tag last week but I wouldn’t expect the same treatment from the Bulldogs this week.
Suggested Draftstars Team
