Super Saturday in the NRL continues at 5:30pm AEDT in Townsville, as the hapless Cowboys look to kick-start their season with a win, as they host Ricky Stuart and the Raiders. The Cowboys currently occupy second last on the ladder, and alongside the Eels have looked the worst two teams to start the year. The Raiders on the other hand started red hot, winning their first two games, before coming crashing back to earth last week in a loss to the Sea Eagles. Questions will be answered, let’s dive in and see if we can predict those answers.
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North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders
Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium – Townsville
Date: Saturday, 29th March
Time: 5:30pm AEDT
Odds: Cowboys ($1.90) vs Raiders ($1.90)
Line: Cowboys -1.5
Points: 47.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Neds. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
For a team that played finals football last season, the fall from grace for the Cowboys has been steep. Last week was an improvement, as they stayed with the Broncos for the first hour at Suncorp, with the teams tied up at 12 with 20 minutes remaining. 14 unanswered points from the Broncos ruined it though, as the Cowboys dropped to 0-3.
Looking at the Raiders, and they came into the season as a favourite for the wooden spoon, but Ricky and his team put that idea to bed over the opening fortnight, with dominant wins over the Warriors and Broncos. It all came crashing down last week though, as they were destroyed by the Sea Eagles 40-12, despite Manly being without their superstar fullback Tom Trbojevic. Is this a blip on the radar, or a sign of things to come?
The Cowboys have dominated this rivalry over the past four seasons, winning the past 7 matchups between the sides. They met twice last year, with the Cowboys dominant in both matchups. In round 15, the Raiders hosted the Cowboys as 2.5-point home favourites, with a total closing at 49.5. The Cowboys dominated the opening 50 minutes, leading 28-0 before Jordan Rapana put the Raiders on the board. The Cowboys didn’t allow a comeback though, as Reece Robson scored 12 minutes later to confirm the win, with the Cowboys coming home 34-16.
They met again in round 24 in Townsville, with the Cowboys closing 5.5-point favourites, with a total of 51.5. In an even more dominant display, the Cowboys hammered the Raiders 40-4, with Valentine Holmes scoring a hat-trick.
The Raiders opened 2.5-point favourites on the lookahead for this one, before we re-opened around a pick em’. We are still around a pick em’ at most books, with the Raiders a heavily juiced 1.5-point underdog at Ladbrokes currently, with the head-to-head market a pick em’. It’s a decent drop for the Raiders from their market position last week, but it’s fair given their performance. The Cowboys did show some signs of life, and given a loss here probably ends their season, you’ve got to think the desperation should get them home, especially considering they have the Panthers next week in Sydney.
Looking at the total, it opened 49.5. The under has been bet heavily, with the total now sitting at 46.5. I’d make a fair total 47.5, so I don’t see any real value here. Both teams are capable in attack, but both have also shown they can be terrible defensively. Could easily go over, but I’ll leave it alone.
Cowboys to Win
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Cowboys (-0.5) – As above, and this way we get the +2.5.
Leg 2: Xavier Savage (1+ try) – Savage has looked dangerous in both games he has played to start the season, and against a poor Cowboys edge defence, expect him to trouble the scorers again this week.
Leg 3: Jeremiah Nanai (1+ try) – Nanai is a noted try scorer, however he hasn’t scored yet this season. It’s rare the rangy backrower doesn’t score a try in three straight games, so I expect him to get off the mark this week.
SGM Odds: $9.50 at BoomBet
