Another Queensland Derby completes Friday Night Football, as the Dolphins “host“ the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium looking for their first win of the season. With the Broncos looking to keep themselves firmly entrenched in the top 4, rookie Head Coach Kristian Woolf will be desperate to get the Dolphins their first two points of the season. Big Brother vs Little Brother, this should be spicy! Let’s get to previewing the matchup.
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The Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos
Location: Suncorp Stadium – Brisbane
Date: Friday, 28th March
Time: 8:00pm AEDT
Odds: Dolphins ($4.60) vs Broncos ($1.20)
Line: Broncos -13.5
Points: 50.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
It’s been a concerning start to the coaching tenure of Kristian Woolfe for the Dolphins, with three losses from three games against teams that aren’t exactly heavyweights (Rabbitohs, Knights, Tigers), with the shadow of Wayne Bennett looming large over the NRL’s newest franchise. The Dolphins have looked competitive during portions of each game, but they really need to string a consistent 80 minutes together if they’re going to challenge the Broncos.
Speaking of the Broncos, they welcome back centre Katoni Staggs, who gives the Broncos an extra element in the backline. Whilst Deine Mariner has been good, Staggs is a far better centre, and makes this attack more electric. It’s hard to get a gauge on the Broncos this season, with a massive round 1 win over the Roosters, followed by a poor loss to the Raiders, then a stuttering win over the Cowboys last week. The Broncos definitely aren’t playing as well as they are rated in the market, but they still haven’t hit top gear.
These teams met twice last year, with the spoils being shared between them. In round 6, the Broncos hosted the Dolphins at Suncorp and went off as 8.5-point home favourites, with a total of 45.5. After a tight opening 30 minutes, the Broncos shifted into gear, scoring 5 unanswered tries in 25 minutes to run away with the game, 28-14. They met again in round 26, again at Suncorp Stadium, with the Broncos closing 6.5-point “road” favourites, and a total closing 54.5. The Dolphins destroyed the Broncos 40-6, winning their first game against their Brisbane rivals.
This week, the Broncos were 11.5-point “road” favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening 13.5-point favourites. I make the Broncos a 12-point favourite, however that’s giving the Dolphins home field advantage, therefore it’s east to get to this number of 13.5.
The total was 54.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening as 53.5. It’s dropped to 51.5, and I do agree with the move down. In the four games between these teams, none have gone over 50, with the average being 42. I make a fair total 47.5, so I believe there is still some meat on the bone here for the under. So, the under is my best bet for this one.
Under 51.5 Points
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Broncos (-5.5) – The Broncos should get this done by a converted try plus here. They have far too much fire power, and the forwards should dominate the Dolphins.
Leg 2: S Cobbo (1+ try) – Six tries in four games against the Dolphins shows the Broncos flyer has the wood on the opposition. Cobbo already has four tries this season and looks great on the flank. Easy choice.
Leg 3: J Isaako (1+ try) – Isaak has two tries in the opening three weeks and should be in line for another here against the Broncos. The Broncos have continued to concede out wide this season, after conceding 86% of their tries last season on the edges.
SGM Odds: $5.25 at BoomBet
