It was Jack Draper who managed to leave Indian Wells with the title and 1000 ranking points to his name, with the Jannik Sinner suspension leading to some more open results and tournaments. We now head across to Miami for another Masters 1000, with Carlos Alcaraz looking to bounce back from his loss to Draper in the desert.
Let’s take a look at the draw quarter by quarter and see if we can find some value.
ATP Miami Outright Preview & Betting Tips
Quarter 1
We are almost at the point now where Alexander Zverev is starting to present as value in the outright markets again, after another agonising Grand Slam near miss in Melbourne. Zverev has been all at sea since, and his decision to play the Golden Swing on the clay certainly raised some eyebrows. His draw here looks to be solid, particularly if you are of the belief that Jack Draper may be a little on the fatigued side having to back up from the biggest title of his career. Elsewhere in this section, the name that caught my eye as more of a speculative quarter bet was France Tiafoe. He is another player who might be able to build some momentum over the course of the first couple of rounds and present as a lively double figure chance to win the quarter.
Quarter 2
Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev are the bookends in this quarter, and neither are really setting the world on fire in terms of their tennis recently. That means I am keen to look elsewhere in this section in a search for value. The first name to catch my eye is Alex De Minaur, however I will likely only be keeping him safe as there is a third round meeting with either Ugo Humbert or Joao Fonseca that presents as a tricky early match. Similar to my thinking around Tiafoe in quarter one, a similar case could be made for Denis Shapovalov in this quarter, however the Canadian has even better formlines that suggest he is capable of a decent run here.
Quarter 3
Novak Djokovic had another early exit at Indian Wells, falling to Botic Van De Zandschulp in his first match. He is the favourite to win this quarter, however again I think my preference may be to look elsewhere. Stefanos Tsitsipas has certainly looked better since changing racquets, and Daniil Medvedev also looked a little better at Indian Wells. Looking at their respective match-ups and potential paths, I think Alex Michelsen is capable of making some noise if he has overcome his illness at Indian Wells, though I wouldn’t be opposed to a play on Tsitsipas either.
Quarter 4
To be honest, I am not going to spend a stack of time on this quarter, largely because Carlos Alcaraz is such a heavy favourite. I’m happy to look much wider and I think an outright on Alexander Bublik, albeit a very small one, isn’t the worst play. He looked a little better in Phoenix in the Challenger tournament (lost to Fonseca in two tiebreaks in the final), and is another who has been trialling a new racquet with some success. He is a heavy underdog next up against Tommy Paul, but if the American isn’t 100% then Bublik could make some noise in this quarter.
Summary
I think based on the draw that Carlos Alcaraz is the incredibly deserving favourite here given his draw and where he is placed against the other main hopes. I will make a play on Alcaraz in the outright market, and look to other quarter betting markets on Frances Tiafoe, Alex De Minaur (saver), Denis Shapovalov, Alex Michelsen and Alexander Bublik as relative long shots.
Suggested Bets
1 unit Carlos Alcaraz to win ATP Miami at $3.10 at Ladbrokes
0.2 units Frances Tiafoe Quarter 1 Winner at $17 at Ladbrokes
0.2 units Denis Shapovalov Quarter 2 Winner at $15 at Ladbrokes
0.2 units Alex De Minaur Quarter 2 Winner at $5.50 at Ladbrokes
0.2 units Alex Michelsen Quarter 3 Winner at $21 at Bet365
0.2 units Alexander Bublik Quarter 4 Winner at $41 at Bet365
