Ascot hosts a nine-race card on Saturday with the Winterbottom stakes as the feature for the day. The first race commences at 3:34pm AEDT and the last concludes at 8:37pm AEDT. The rail is out 7m for the entirety and conditions are set to be Good. Shannon Buckley presents his best bets for the day below!
Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, November 30th 2024
Race 2: Schweppes Handicap 1800m BM72+ - 4:09pm (AEDT)
(2) Fly With Caution $3.10: He looks a great bet early in the card over in the west. He was a good winner two-back over 1600m when he sat better than midfield before popping out on the corner and hitting the line nicely to score (best 6-400m and 4-200m splits of the race / good form race with ROYAL TORONADO, AFFLUENTIAL, and HENCHARD all winning or running well since). He then went to 1800m and sat OSL on a strong tempo (7.1L above average to the 600m mark) before holding off all bar ROYAL TORONADO who had last crack at him (great run). He meets that horse 2kgs better at the weights today and he maps to settle up on speed from a good draw. He arrives fourth-up, so he’ll be hitting peak fitness, and he has a good association with the jockey. ROYAL TORONADO is clearly the horse to beat, but he’s on the quick back up, goes from 2100m back to 1800m, and maps to settle worse than midfield in a race without a strong tempo on paper whilst meeting FLY WITH CAUTION worse at the weights. Great chance
(6) Royal Toronado $2.25: 4YO gelding who is on a 7 day back up and was strong to the line last start. Drops back to 1800m and gets a weight relief, so will be flashing late again. Main Danger.
(1) Playhouse Patron $15.00/$3.00: Value pick who is honest enough and can give sight at an each way price. One for the exotics.
(2) Fly With Caution
$3.10 (2.5 Units)
Race 6: Sir Ernest Lee Steere Classic 1400m - 6:43pm (AEDT)
(1) Wind and the lion $3.20: The favourite of the field who arrives third up for this and gets out to 1400m. Beat home Mai Aloha last start and will still take improvement, but will need to lug more weight. Still has upside.
(3) Londons Image $6.50/$2.10: Another one who is on the quick back up after leading them over the mile last start on a hot tempo last start. Drops back in trip today and will likely lead again. Take catching.
(8) Mai Aloha $3.60: She was a nice winner two back over 1200m at Ascot in a Class 1 when she sat worse than midfield before getting to the outside and hitting the line hard to score by 1.3L (nice change-up speed / fastest L200m split of the race / rated well). They threw her straight in the Placid Ark Stakes after that performance and she was a big black booker after being snagged back from a wide gate and not getting clear until she was inside the final 50m when it was all over. She’s only been beaten 2.8L and Pike had a lap full of horse (definitely should’ve finished closer). I think she’ll enjoy the step out to 1400m and she meets WIND AND THE LION 4kgs better at the weights. There looks to be good speed on paper, so I think Pike can get over from the wide gate and hopefully land midfield one off the fence with cover. If she’s close enough and doesn’t get posted throughout, she can hit back hard
(8) Mai Aloha
$3.60 (2 Units)
Race 8: Winterbottom Stakes 1200m – 7:52pm (AEDT)
(1) Overpass $3.20: Last year’s winner who returns to the scene of the crime after a strong first up win in Sydney before fading late last start down the Flemington straight. Draws out, but will roll forward and is genuinely hard to get by. Unbeaten this track/trip.
(2) Western Empire $3.70: 7YO Gelding who has been plonked in the early market after a nice return over 1100m 2 weeks ago when he was held up a crucial stage behind Rope Them In. He gets weight relief on that runner today and draws ideally for William Pike. On top.
(11) Bravo Centurion $11.00/$3.10: 4YO gelding who has won its last 5 in a row and looks to be quite the talent. Sticky gate, but best is good enough to match these. Value pick.
(2) Western Empire
$3.70 (2 Units)
