The penultimate week of international rugby league is here and there is still plenty to play for. The opening 2 weeks have produced some exciting rugby league action and fans have been reminded of the significance of the international game. Each player will want to continue to display what it means to play for their country, giving nothing away to their opponents and fans are the benefactors of this, viewing exhilarating battles. Before You Bet is here to assist, by looking at both matches ahead this weekend, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your viewing enjoyment.
Pacific Championships Week 3 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand vs Tonga
Go Media Stadium – Saturday 2nd November – 6:05pm (AEDT)
Both sides head into this game following a defeat to Australia, with a win here giving them the opportunity to makes amends for their loss in the Final next week. Despite having more possession (53%) and a higher completion rate (86%), the Kiwis were defeated 22-10 last week by the Kangaroos. They tried hard throughout the contest; it was evident that some of their structures are still coming together with a new set of inexperienced players in their lineup. They will be disappointed that their defence conceded 9.7m per carry and 5 line breaks, but there are positives to take away from that match. A try with 16 minutes remaining forced their opponents to panic somewhat; with greater consistency in their execution in their opponents red zone, a different outcome could’ve been achieved.
Tonga were kept scoreless by Australia in their opening match, defeated 18-0. With possession shared equally, they too had a superior completion rate (80%) but were unable to crack their opponent’s defensive line. The fact that they were limited to just 7.8m per carry and 2 line breaks with such a powerful forward pack, indicates that they were outplayed. Missing 38 tackles also hurt their cause, giving their opponents multiple opportunities to generate momentum; the Tongan defensive line scrambled well throughout the match but were often caught on the back foot. There is no doubt that they will be better for that match, as will the Kiwis, as passion and pride peaks ahead of this contest.
The Kiwis are strong favourites for this game ($1.44 vs $2.80). Majority of this is based on their effort against the Kangaroos compared with Tonga’s a week earlier. The fact that they were able to score points counts for a lot; Tonga pressured the Kangaroo’s line for long periods of time the previous week and were unable to produce anything. They are not incapable; they just need to find a solution to the limitations in their attack. Majority of this comes towards the end; Katoa will be better for that match and an improved kicking game is expected. In equal measure, the home team is still finding a balance to trouble opponents. The tries which they produced last week were exciting and they are expected to only improve on that performance.
This means that a blowout (13+ - $2.55) option is preferred by punters. This is understandable but it also overlooks the capabilities of the visitors. They have plenty of strong forward that will be ready to match what the Kiwis have in the middle. If they gain some ascendency, it will be a tough battle to gain momentum. A victory may not be as easy as it seems for the home team. There is no doubt that the passion involved will also increase the tense nature of play. Often, a physical encounter is delivered, and this match should be no different. It would be surprising to see Tonga cause an upset, but it will be close. For that reason, select the smaller margin on offer, decrease your stake and enjoy the odds which are on offer.
New Zealand 1-12
$3.10 (1.5 Units)
Papua New Genia vs Cook Islands
Santos National Football Stadium – Sunday 3rd November – 4pm (AEDT)
Rugby league is a religion in PNG and come 4pm Sunday afternoon, with everything to play for, you won’t have to look too hard to see what it means to this country. The Kumuls are in the box seat for this match following a dominating 22-10 victory over Fiji in Week 1. Well coached and executing to a high standard, the structure provided to them allowed them to create a platform of exciting attack and rigid defence. There was also a sense that they can improve on that effort. This doesn’t appear ideal for the visitors, who were defeated 56-6 last week by the same opponents the Kumuls defeated a week earlier. It is why the odds are so heavily favoured ($1.10 vs $7) towards the home side. This match is (unfortunately) a case of ‘how much’ for the home side. If last week is anything to go by, the Cook Islands will be strong early, but fitness and overall quality will eventually let them down. The line (20.5) will not be enough to give them a chance in this match. Once they get momentum, PNG should have the experience, structure and class to create a comfortable margin of victory over their opponents.
PNG -20.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
