The NRL heads to Bundaberg in Round 24, as the Bulldogs host the Dolphins in Queensland. With the Dolphins battling hard to make the top 8 for the first time, and the Bulldogs pushing for a top 4 berth, it’s all to play for on Saturday afternoon in rural Queensland. Should be a cracker, and Ben Bridge has you covered with a full betting preview below!
NRL Round 24 Preview & Betting Tips
Canterbury Bulldogs vs The Dolphins
Salter Oval, Saturday 17th August, 3:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Bulldogs made another statement last weekend, cruising by the Dragons at Kogarah 28-10. The Bulldogs were dominant through the middle, gaining 500 metres more than the Dragons, running for a massive 2149 metres, whilst breaking the line six times on their way to a four tries to two victory. Toby Sexton continued his impressive season, setting up two tries whilst making 24 tackles and running for 70 metres. With Sexton taking pressure of Burton to produce everything, this Bulldogs team is looking extremely competitive heading into the finals.
As for the Dolphins, they managed a Golden Point win over the struggling Warriors, in a cracking Sunday afternoon game that produced 66 points. The stats matched the scoreline, and it really was the definition of a back-and-forth battle, with neither team able to fully get on top throughout. Herbie Farnworth was sensational, running for 284 metres, whilst scoring two tries, busting 11 tackles, popping four offloads, and breaking the line once. Elsewhere, out of favour half Sean O’Sullivan proved he still has something to offer, kicking the winning field goal from 41 metres out.
Match Preview
The Bulldogs and Dolphins have met once previously, at this very venue, as the Bulldogs snuck by the Dolphins in round 22 last season, winning 23-22. The Dolphins closed 3.5-point favourites in the matchup, and whilst the final result obviously could have gone either way, the Bulldogs managed to dominate the middle half an hour of the contest and always looked like covering. The total closed 48.5 and was always in the balance, before going slightly under.
As for this matchup, the Bulldogs opened 6.5-point favourites prior to last weekend’s fixtures, before re-opening as 5.5-point favourites on Monday morning. The spread remains under a converted try, and I don’t see any value here to be honest, as I make a fair margin 5.5-points between these teams. Subjectively, I’d take the Bulldogs given their form, but the Dolphins are desperate to keep winning, so I’ll steer clear of the spread here.
As for the total, it opened 48.5 and has been bet up to 50/50.5. I find this a bit high and make a fair total 45.5. The Bulldogs have been a heavy under team this season, having easily the highest percentage of matches going under (75%). The under seems a good play here, and with the number heading north, could be worth waiting until right before kick-off to pull the trigger on this bet. I trust the Bulldogs defence to hold this Dolphins’ attack relatively well and believe a 26-20 result is somewhere near where this game ends.
Under 50 total points
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Bulldogs ML – Bulldogs should get the win here, and whilst I’m not convinced they cover the spread, I’m happy betting them to win the game.
J Addo-Carr (1+ try) – JAC has had a bit of a truncated season, however he still has 8 tries in 11 games and knows how to find the line. The Dolphins edges are weak, and I expect the Bulldogs to attack both sides.
J Bostock (1+ try) – No tries last week for Bostock, despite the Dolphins scoring 34 points, expect the rookie back on the score sheet this weekend against the weaker Bulldogs right edge defence.
SGM Odds: $5.50 at Bet365
