The brand new 2023-24 NBL season begins on Thursday night with Throwdown XXI. That’s right, Melbourne United and South East Melbourne Phoenix will get proceedings underway in a blockbuster matchup at John Cain Arena. We preview the clash and provide our best bet below!
Also, we’re providing previews and expert betting tips for every game of the NBL24 season, so make sure to head over to our NBL Tips page regularly to keep up to date with all of our content. Alternatively, you can access the rest of our NBL Round 1 betting tips here!
NBL24 Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne United vs SE Melbourne Phoenix
Thursday 7:30pm AEST, September 28th, John Cain Arena
Looking to get off to a better start than they did in NBL23, Melbourne United look primed to attack the NBL24 season in full force. They missed the finals last campaign by the narrowest of margins despite being one of the best form sides in the last dozen rounds.
United have made a few savvy moves in the offseason to ensure they can compete with the best over the next six months. Matthew Dellavedova has returned from his one-year stint in the NBA and looks to be in terrific physical condition. Ariel Hukporti will also feel like a new signing after missing the entire NBL23 season with an Achilles injury. Arguably their biggest signing, Luke Travers has made the move over from Perth and will be looking to take his game to the next level.
Dean Vickerman remains at the helm after having his contract extended for a further four years earlier this year. He had his side humming in the NBL Blitz (NBL’s preseason competition), with United going undefeated to finish on top of the standings.
Ready to embark on their fifth season in the competition, South East Melbourne Phoenix will feel as though they’re in great shape to compete for their first NBL Championship. They finished last season in fifth position which was their second-best result to date (finished fourth in 2020-21) and look to be a stronger roster on paper in NBL24.
Last season’s core of Mitch Creek and imports Alan Williams and Gary Browne have all returned for another campaign, and that trio alone will have you as a winning chance in most games. Unfortunately, Williams will miss the early part of the season as he undergoes surgery, although their injury replacement, Tyler Cook, has looked terrific in the preseason and was one of the best performing players in the Blitz.
One of the biggest changes the Phoenix made in the offseason was off the court, with successful veteran coach Mike Kelly taking over as head coach. Kelly replaces Simon Mitchell who had been in charge of the team in each of their first four seasons in the competition.
Match prediction: Melbourne United’s preseason form looks to have swayed the bookmakers into pricing them as favourites for this opening clash with SE Melbourne Phoenix. They’re currently around $1.50 in the head-to-head market at most agencies, while Phoenix are hovering around the $2.50 price point. The win market is always tough to play into in the opening round, particularly when it’s two rivals locking horns, so I recommend avoiding the Win and Handicap markets on this occasion.
Instead, I believe there’s some genuine value in taking the unders in the Total Points market. The current line is set at 178.5 points at Ladbrokes and that’s seems to be at least 5-10 points too high for mine. The last three meetings between these teams have resulted in totals of 168, 150, and 153 points scored, and with a bit of rust to be expected in the opening game of the season, I’m keen to back this to be a lower scoring contest than the current points line suggests.
Under 178.5 Points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
