For fans of the Wallabies, it has taken this long to cool down from that abominable call by the French referee on full-time in Bledisloe I.
The Wallabies should have been preparing for the possibility of winning the Bledisloe Cup at Auckland’s Eden Park on Saturday. As remote as that might have been, that chance now doesn’t exist at all. Instead, the All Blacks got out of jail 39-37 and the silverware is under lock-and-key for another year.
Through all the drama and heroics in Melbourne, we did steer to you into a winner...the Wallabies with +10.5 points start at $1.91. We followed that up by tipping another winner...South Africa at the line of –7.5 points at $1.97.
What’s in store in Bledisloe II? Jim Tucker is back with his preview and rugby betting tips for the contest for New Zealand vs Australia this Saturday.
2022 Bedisloe Cup II: New Zealand vs Australia
Eden Park, Auckland, Saturday, September 24th 5:05pm AEST
Talk rugby hoodoos and we quiver when “Eden Park” is whispered. The All Blacks have beaten the Wallabies 22 times on the trot there and by an average margin of 18 points. The Wallabies haven’t won there since 1986 when Crocodile Dundee was booming at the box office.
You might not instantly see how Paul Hogan’s classic line “THIS is a knife” fits a rugby setting but the idea does. For the Wallabies to win, a combo like Rob Valetini, Pete Samu and reinstated Harry Wilson has to shout “THIS is a backrow” by playing bigger and more powerfully than ever before.
The Test against the All Blacks in Melbourne was played in perfect conditions...no wind, dry ball and good footing under a roof. Two teams played positive rugby and scored nine tries.
There won’t be anywhere near 76 total points scored again. Scattered showers are predicted for Auckland. Even if it doesn’t rain, it will be slippery as always and ripe for those skimming little grubbers into tricky corners that the Kiwis always hurt us with.
The conditions and Eden Park are two big factors in NZ’s favour. There is no room for little errors when they bite you seven points at a time. That’s not being negative on the Wallabies’ chances just realistic. Back-to-back errors are a killer so discipline has to be spot on because another yellow card fest will be terminal.
Hauling in an 18-point deficit to level at 34-all with the All Blacks in Melbourne was superb from the Wallabies.
Flyhalf Bernard Foley orchestrated the two strike-back tries with a short ball and a pinpoint long pass and fullback Andrew Kellaway’s speed did the rest. The Wallabies will need more of the same in Auckland.
Lalakai Foketi stepped up as a Test-quality inside centre with his sure running, strength to contest for ball at the tackle and keeping free of errors.
Winger Marika Koroibete has beaten more defenders (23) on attack than any other player from a Tier One nation in 2022. That’s some record when Rieko Ioane (21) is next best. All Blacks winger Will Jordan has made a world-leading 10 linebreaks as a Test player in 2022 so watch out for his wheels and deception.
More good lineout throwing from hooker Dave Porecki can keep the Wallabies in the contest because a quality ball supply is vital.
The All Blacks are without injured skipper Sam Cane but get back the more dynamic Ardie Savea in the backrow. No David Havili means Jordie Barrett moving to inside centre and brother Beauden slotting into fullback. Oh, to have that luxury.
The All Blacks just win at Eden Park and even 15.5 points start at Ladbrokes, at the line, is not tempting enough.
The rolling maul try from a hooker paid off as first score in Melbourne when All Black Samisoni Taukei’aho delivered.
Wallabies hooker Dave Porecki is $3.50 for an Any Time Try (TAB.com.au) so jump on there. Likewise, Beauden Barrett for an Any Time Try at $2.50 at the same ground where he scored four against the 2018 Wallabies. Australia at $8 to win outright (Ladbrokes) is astonishing in a two-horse race but it rarely is at Eden Park.
New Zealand to win 13+
$1.57 (4 units)
South Africa v Argentina
Kings Park, Durban, Sunday September 25th 1:05am AEST
South Africa -16.5 pts
$1.84 (4 units)
