First thing. The Wallabies lose eight times in a row to England and they’re 2.5-point favourites for Saturday night’s big one in Perth.
There’ll be English punters from Southampton to Sunderland thinking it’s not a bad bet to keep backing the jockey responsible for that streak...coach Eddie Jones.
This should be a wonderful rugby union Test series over the next three Saturday nights in Perth, Brisbane and Sydney. It’ll be tight, it’ll be physical and there’ll be some tries to remember.
OK, let’s take a closer look at what is in store.
Australia v England
Sat, July 2, Optus Stadium, Perth 7.55pm (AEST)
The Wallabies know what is coming. It’s whether they can handle it and throw the right heat back at the Poms.
The English have done plenty of bullying in the forwards during their 8-0 streak of success over the Wallabies since 2016. That has been backed up by a far superior kicking game and that means contestable kicks, kicks with waves of rose-wearing chasers applying pressure. The English will kick 30-plus times per game.
The English have won the pressure game when quite a number of those eight Tests could have gone either way in the second half.
Wallabies coach Dave Rennie believes his side now has one of the most reliable scrums in the world even with destructive prop Taniela Tupou out injured. He is a big loss because he can be such a weapon of disruption.
The lineout will be intriguing. The Wallabies have a debutant hooker Dave Porecki throwing to a debutant lock Cadeyrn Neville. Porecki has a calm and detailed approach which is hopefully made for Test rugby.
The English will pressure at the lineout with the tall timber of Maro Itoje, Jonny Hill and Courtney Lawes.
Rennie is backing forwards coach Dan McKellar, who is honing a Brumbies-style rolling maul from lineouts as a more prominent weapon. Neville is something of a maul master and Brumbies lock partner Darcy Swain also laps up that area of the game.
All this forwards’ stuff will sail over some heads. What about the backs? What about the tries?
Quade Cooper was five-from-five as a playmaker in his winning return to Test rugby last year. This will again be a case of less is more from the mature Cooper. He is in a sweet spot with steamroller Samu Kerevi outside him and Nic White inside him. The playmaking is shared too because halfback White will direct plenty of play too just as Will Genia did when partnered with Cooper.
The backline has a very sharp look to it and has some try-power.
Remember 2016? The Wallabies paired two 100kg-plus centres in Kerevi and Tevita Kuridrani to play some “Monster-Ball” against England in the opening two Tests. Neither was a proficient passer of the ball and it was a shortcoming in two straight losses.
Kerevi is much improved in that area and centre partner Len Ikitau can put on some neat ball-handling touches.
The Wallabies have upgraded their own kicking with White, Cooper, left-footer Ikitau and Tom Banks all of good quality.
There is poise to this Wallabies side but Porecki is a huge key. If he is unflustered and nails his lineout throws and scrum work, the Wallabies are on the way.
Much is made of England winning the 2016 series 3-0 in Australia. I can’t remember a series where the Wallabies were more responsible for their own demise. The Aussies made a cracking start to the first Test in that series and might have been out of sight but for an obstruction call cancelling what would have been a third try with England at sea. In the second Test, skipper Michael Hooper decided against a kick at penalty goal in a tight Test. Dumb stuff. Another loss and series gone.
I’m sensing a 24-20 type of result to the Wallabies in Perth.
Jones said it himself in 2016...the first Test sets the tone for the rest of the series. Win this one and all the pressure is heaped on England.
It’s hard to find value out there so we’ll stick to the Wallabies at the line. If you like an Anytime Tryscorer at Ladbrokes, super-sharp England fullback Freddie Steward ($5) and Wallabies lock Swain ($13), from a maul, will give you a shot at collecting. Under 50.5 total points for the Test is at $1.85 with Ladbrokes.
Australia -2.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
New Zealand v Ireland
Sat, July 2, Eden Park, Auckland 5.05pm (AEST)
New Zealand 1-12
$2.80 (1.5 Units)
