Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, December 28th.
There's nine races on today's card, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the True position.
Check out our preview and betting tips for each race below.
Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, December 28th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (2) Cassius
Best Value: Race 9 - (5) Be My Star & (9) Soul Star
The $7.50 for (1) Rockarral looks a good bet to open the meeting here. He's had two runs back from a spell and should be ready to peak third up, which his record suggests he does. He's had three starts when third up, for two wins and a 2nd placing. His first two runs back have both been over 2000m so he should be fit enough for the rise to 2500m now. He's drawn well in barrier 4 and Michael Poy takes 2kg off so in an open race with few standouts, the $7.50 looks a good each way option.
Two-year-old race with a number of horses on debut so it won't be a big betting race. There's certain stables I have success following in these sorts of races and the Hayes, Hayes, Dabernig team normally have their juveniles right around the mark. (8) Prince Ruban is a colt by Pride Of Dubai and he debuts with the blinkers on today. It's the stable's only runner in the race and Luke Nolen is basically their number one rider at present so it's a good sign to see him engaged. I suggest he'll be right around the mark.
(5) Ryan's Fender backed up a solid first up run with a dominant win at Flemington last time out over 1800m. Third up today, up to 2040m, he appears quite clearly the horse to beat, especially with the plum draw which should allow him to get a trail behind the leader. He brings the best form to the race and he's possibly got more improvement to come so it's hard to see him getting beat here. The horse that may give a good sight is (6) Mitrust, which is the likely leader. He ran 4th first up but we've seen multiple Richard Laming horses bounce off a first up run to win second up recently. The rise from 1400m to 2040m is a big query but it wouldn't surprise me to see him run a cheeky race.
(2) Cassius looks to find a nice race today. He's had two runs back from a spell and was only run down very late last start to be beaten less than half-a-length. He's now third up and up to the mile, a recipe which brought about success last preparation when he won by 2L third up at Bendigo back in June. Drawn well in barrier 3, he should be very hard to beat. (7) Rapid Romance is in good form for Danny O'Brien and Craig Williams is a strong jockey booking. She worked home well last start at Caulfield and she's finished in the top two at her last three starts so should be thereabouts once again. (4) Briseur De Couer next best.
Absolutely nothing stands out to my eye here so I'll stay out. It's a trappy race.
No bet
(7) Clean Acheeva is a decent each way price here at $16. She's had two runs back from a spell and got very little luck last start over this track and distance. She drew barrier 1, was held up badly around the turn, got checked back to the rear of the field and lost any chance of winning. She's a bit of a non-winner with just three wins from 32 starts, but third up in a moderate race, she looks a chance. If (1) Pierrless can get across from the gate to lead, she'll take plenty of running down. She's looking for a hattrick and has been dominant in her past two victories. (11) Duns 'n' Roses and (12) Miss Polanski are both chances at each way odds.
(7) Clean Acheeva E/W
$16
There's any number of chances in this. (1) Champagne Boom was held up the entire straight first up at Pakenham. She showed quite a bit as a two-year-old but has failed to reproduce that, but she looked to have plenty to offer if she got any luck first up. Put her in at big odds. (2) Maozi is another worth throwing in at big odds for an in-form Snowden stable. All of her racing last prep was on wet ground but her form on good ground is sound as well. (6) It's Kind Of Magic was last seen running 4th beaten 0.5L at Flemington during Cup week behind Akari. That's exceptional form for a race like this and if the 1200m isn't too short for her, she'll give this a big shake. (7) Pouting Lips should take improvement from her first up run where she finished 3rd. (9) Paul's Regret led all the way first up here and cruised home. Can definitely measure up here. (10) Ruby Street and (15) Lolarosie can also be included.
Value: (1) Champagne Boom $19
Trying a few at good odds here. (2) Wagner is the favourite and for obvious reasons. He won easily first up and there's no reason he can't do so again. He deserves favouritism but barrier 1 at the Valley can bring horses like him undone. (7) Ray's Dream ran a great race first up, finishing off hard from back in the field. He's won two from four when second up and gets the winkers on for the first time. (9) Forbid Me Not comes here first up and he won his first two starts last prep. Craig Williams is a notable jockey booking. He ran 2nd at his only prior start over this track and distance and his first up record is very good so $11 looks a nice price. (13) Carlingford is a blowout at $51, he's got a terrific second up record.
Value: (9) Forbid Me Not $11 & (13) Carlingford $51
Another good race and one with plenty of chances. (5) Be My Star goes on top at $7.00. The South Australian runners are continually underestimated when they come to races like this in Victoria, but they shouldn't be. Two starts ago this horse ran here at the Valley and never got a crack at them, held up for most of the straight. Then last start at Morphettville she had to come from a mile off them and was given way too much to do, but it was a good run nonetheless. Back to The Valley today and with any luck should run a very good race. (9) Soul Star is the other at $7.50 that I rate very highly. She's got more talent than her record suggests but notably, her two career wins have both come when first up from a spell. Fresh today, I expect her to go very close. (1) Jester Angel ran well in defeat when 2nd here first up. She's got a good second up record so can be included at $21+.
Value: (9) Soul Star $7.50 & (1) Jester Angel $21
