Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, January 24th.
The weekend of racing kicks off with an eight-race card under lights at The Valley, featuring the G2 Australia Stakes. The first race is scheduled for 6.30pm AEDT. The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the True position.
We've gone through every race on the card and given our tips and best bets below!
Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, January 24th
Best Bet: Race 5 - (8) How Womantic
Best Value Bet: Race 6 - (10) Vungers to place
Happy to be with the favourite (3) Quality Seeker here in the first, but I'd suggest it's pretty important to keep watch of the market here, especially given some of the recent performances from runners in this yard when they drift pre-race. He's in good form, with two wins and a 2nd from his past four starts, all of which have been in Sydney. It was a big run in defeat last start when he was caught three-wide without cover for half the race and still only went down by a lip. His last three runs have all been over this distance so he's got a very good foundation for this race and if the market says he's come to play, I suspect he'll be winning. (6) Longclaw is out of the Paddy Payne stable with Billy Egan in the saddle. He won very well first up at Pakenham before being beaten as favourite second up here at The Valley. He bounced back with a much better run last start and with that run over 2238m under his belt, he comes into this in good shape. I love backing horses from this stable and especially in distance races. $9.00 looks appealing. (7) Reliabelle is a place chance as always, while (1) Yulong Rising is knocking on the door.
Value: (6) Longclaw $9.00
It's pretty tough to take $3.00 about a two-year-old in a race like this, with 12 to go around and eight of those on debut. Races at Moonee Valley are hard enough let alone when you throw in those things to consider. Nevertheless, on exposed form, (7) Baaqyah has to go on top. She was beaten a lip on debut at Flemington over the carnival, before going down by a length to Tagaloa here at The Valley at her latest outing. That was a huge performance after she sat four-wide without cover the entire race. She still pulled right away from the third horse and I think with a softer run here, she'll take plenty of beating. The Snowden team are airborne at the moment and they always have to be respected in two-year-old races, so (11) Queen Ryker has to be included. Notably, Jye McNeil jumps off (12) Stormborn to ride her. I thought Queen Ryker's trial at Pakenham was absolutely terrific. The draw might be a little bit tricky but I think she's the value at $8.50. Godolphin is another stable that always has to be respected in these races, so (5) Valaquenta goes in with Damian Lane in the saddle. Interestingly, (13) Marchena pulled up shinsore and lame last start but lines up here three weeks later. Hard to have her with that in mind. Baaqyah and Queen Ryker for me.
Value: (11) Queen Ryker $8.50
An open race over the 1000m but there's two that immediately stand out at good odds that I want to back. (6) Forbid Me Not goes on top at $6.50. She ran 4th here over this track and distance first up in an open handicap, where she got well back in the field, was held up until the 200m mark and then worked home strongly to be beaten less than 2L. She's got a decent enough second up record and Craig Williams sticks with her after riding her first up, so from the good draw again hopefully she gets a bit more luck and gets a clear run at them at an earlier stage. She'll be very hard to hold out. (1) Our Luca ran 3rd here behind Bold Star first up before failing badly last start. But I'll be giving him one more chance tonight. He's won two of his three starts when third up from a spell, drops back to the 1000m which is much better for him and he gets the blinkers on for the first time. He's had six weeks off so should be very fresh. If he brings his best he'll go well at double figure odds.
One of the tougher races on the night to assess. On her best form, (2) Sei Stella would win this, but she wasn't at her best in her two starts last preparation, so it's hard to know how she's going to come back, especially with no public trials leading into tonight. Her Sydney form from two campaigns ago was the strongest form in this race, and prior to last prep she was undefeated first up from a spell. Damian Lane goes straight on for her return tonight, which indicates they've set her for this and expect her to run very well. However, trainer Matt Dale has had five runners at The Valley this season and none of them have run a place. She's a go-forward horse, which is a good thing at The Valley, but there's also plenty of speed in this race. At $2.50 I'm going to bet around her, but no surprise if she just proves too classy for this lot. Neurotic would have gone on top but she's been scratched, so instead I have (8) Waltonia on top at $7.00. Craig Williams jumps aboard after she resumed with a nice win at Echuca. That was only in a BM58, so this is a big step up in class, but she has measured up in a similar race to this before, so she's capable. She goes well second up and she should just relish the speed on up front. (3) Raven's Blaze was only narrowly beaten over the 1000m here last start and should be peaking third up. (5) Lady Solly gets a senior rider engaged second up tonight and should land on speed. Not hopeless.
I can't quite believe they put up $2.60 for (8) How Womantic, but that price has quickly been smashed into $1.75. She does look the best bet of the night. She has been nothing but impressive in two career starts to date. She won on debut despite being a touch green, but she was very professional when winning with authority last start at Caulfield. She should get a dream run and although there's some competition, she looks a level above. (2) Rocking Eagle continues to race well. He's only missed the top two once from five starts, and that was when he appeared to choke down. His win here two starts ago was enormous and he should run well again. (7) Modear hasn't put a foot wrong this prep, winning both starts. The step up to 1200m probably suits her and senior stable rider Billy Egan jumps back on for trainer Patrick Payne. (6) Rutherford is building with each run and can run into a placing at $26.
Another competitive race and my original on top selection Licko'paint has been scratched so I'll only be betting very small here on two at good odds. (11) Lady Loft resumes from a spell and she's got a good first up record with two wins and a 2nd from five starts. She won first up last prep at Moe and didn't finish out of the money in any of her four starts that campaign. She resumes tonight with Chelsea Hall in the saddle. Barrier 9 is a bit sticky but she should land somewhere up on speed and she's not the worst shout at $15. (10) Vungers is more of a place chance than a winning chance but the $31/$7 on offer looks an appealing price. He probably needs a bit further than this but he's placed in her past two first up runs, which have been over 1100m and 1200m. He's placed in all three starts at Moonee Valley and tends to race up on speed. He could cling on for a place and the $7 to run top three looks pretty good in an open race. (7) Leiter was disappointing first up but finds an easier race tonight, while (6) Beauty went close first up before a midfield finish last start. The tongue tie comes off and the visors go on for the first time; back around a bend will probably suit him third up and he looks hard to beat. Something small on Lady Loft at $15 to win and Vungers win/place at $31/$7.
Fantastic field for the Group 2 Australia Stakes, which contains five Group 1 winners in the eight-horse field. I'm with (2) Scales Of Justice on top. He comes into this first up from a spell and trainer Linsday Smith said this morning that he's basically in the same shape he was at Caulfield first up last prep, where he bolted in by 3.25L in the Bletchingly Stakes. This is a much harder race than that, but if he turns up in the same form as that, he'll take plenty of beating. He's only ever missed a place once from nine starts when first up and he's never finished out of the top two from six starts at the distance. From barrier 2 he will probably look to sit on the heels of (1) Hey Doc, who has drawn barrier 1, and from there he should get his chance. I think the price discrepency between those two runners is too big, with Scales Of Justice currently $4.40 and Hey Doc $2.45. Hey Doc returns from a little let-up after winning the G1 Winterbottom Stakes in dominant fashion. He's proved in his two starts back from a long spell that he's pretty well back to his best. His only start over this track and distance was a Group 1 win and if he finds the lead and gets things his own way, he's clearly the biggest danger. (4) Begood Toya Mother is the new kid on the block. He was last seen winning the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield. His best distance is arguably over a little bit further than this and he tackles some of the country's best weight-for-age horses tonight, which is a step up in class from his handicap victory in the Rupert Clarke. He's only had 13 starts so he's clearly still got improvement to come. If Hey Doc kicks up from the inside, he may be forced to sit outside him, which probably makes his task a bit tougher. It will be a fascinating tactical battle. (9) Microphone is rated a $5.50 chance. It will be interesting to watch the market in the minutes leading up to the race, because he's been less than impressive since winning the G1 Sires' Produce Stakes as a two-year-old. He's only had one start since then and he was comfortably beaten into 3rd by two horses that wouldn't go close in this race. His trial was only fair, though he wasn't asked to do much, and he did trial without the blinkers. The blinkers importantly go back on tonight so that's an indication that they probably have him quite forward. He would need to improve however.
(2) Scales Of Justice
$4.40
Keen on just two horses to close out the night here. (5) Classic Weiwei returned to form with a good run for 3rd last start at Flemington. He put in a couple of ordinary runs to open his campaign in Adelaide but they gave him a couple of months off and that seemed to do the trick. The problem tonight could be the barrier, as from barrier 3 he might be a bit strung up in traffic around the corner. With even luck, he should be right in the finish though. (10) Manhattan Arch started favourite in that same race at Flemington, but failed and pulled up lame with an internal bleed. Happy to excuse him for that. He's had three weeks off since then and his form prior was good. He should roll forward from the wide gate (hopefully) and if he can land on speed without being caught wide, he'll take some beating, especially if Weiwei is caught up behind.
(10) Manhattan Arch
$5.00
