AFL returns to the home of footy on Thursday night with Melbourne taking on Brisbane in the Round 5 opener. Both clubs are coming off strong wins in Gather Round and now get to test themselves against a fellow contender at the MCG. We bring you our full betting preview for the clash below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Brisbane
Thursday 7:30pm AEST, April 11th, MCG
The footy world has scrutinised Melbourne relentlessly over the past 12 months for a variety of reasons, and there was a big watch on how they would present themselves in 2024; however, their performances on the field to date have been nothing short of excellent.
The Demons spent a fortnight in Adelaide where they took on both host sides at Adelaide Oval and were able to come away with a pair of wins. They first took care of the then undefeated Power by seven points (96-89), and most recently defeated the winless Crows by 15 points (78-63).
In lineup news for the Dees, Kozzie Pickett will miss Thursday night due to a one-game suspension. Coming in for the small forward is Koltyn Tholstrup who will make his AFL debut. He was taken No.13 in last year’s draft and will be tasked with filling the void in the forward line left by Pickett.
At the other end of the ladder, Brisbane have had a horrible start to their season despite coming into it as one of the premiership contenders on the back of their runners-up finish in 2023.
However, after a 0-3 start, the Lions were finally able to secure their first four points of the season in Gather Round when they easily accounted for North Melbourne by 70 points (112-42). They hit the ground running with a blistering 45-12 opening term and never looked back as Joe Daniher booted five majors in a dominant win against one of the rebuilding teams.
In positive news, Lachie Neale has overcome an injury complaint and will line up for game 250 on Thursday night. The Lions have made no changes to the team that won last weekend.
Match prediction: There’s a few different ways to look at this game and for that reason it’s a tough matchup to analyse. On one hand the Demons are flying and are the deserving favourites, but on the other hand the Lions finally got that winning feeling again last weekend and will be desperate to take a scalp, and just may relish the underdog status - especially considering the underdog has won the last four meetings between these sides.
Recent matches between these teams have come right down to the wire, with each of their last three being decided by 13 points or less. The Lions have notoriously struggled at the MCG, but have still covered the 15.5-point spread in their last two ventures there against the Demons.
In a massive game for the Lions, and in Neale’s 250th, I expect them to put up a big challenge and while they may not prevail with the four points, I still see them getting close enough to cover the spread.
Brisbane +15.5
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
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Judd McVee 20+ Disposals – Has become one of the key distributors in defence for the Demons and takes the majority of the team’s kick-ins. He’s had 20+ touches in 4/5 games this season.
Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals – Absolutely tore the Kangaroos to shreds last weekend before being subbed early in the fourth quarter for precautionary reasons. He’s ready to go on Thursday and will be accumulating once again.
Kai Lohmann 1+ Goal – Finally got his opportunity for a full match last week and looked crafty in the forward line. Kicked two goals and will be dangerous again here.
SGM Odds: $5.50 at BoomBet
