Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, October 30th.
We're back on the A-course tonight, which the basically rail in the true position, so they should get their chance coming from anywhere.
Check out our race-by-race preview and tips for the meeting below!
Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 30th
Best Bet: Race 6 - (7) Shining Ace
Best Value Bet: Race 7 - (3) Coby Boy & (5) Flying Quest
Pretty keen to back the top two here with Purton and Moreira on board. (1) Happy Hour drops into Class 5 tonight for the first time since arriving in Hong Kong at the start of last year. He's had two runs this season and I thought his last effort when 4th over 1650m here was fairly good. It's the first time he's been tested at this sort of trip and stepping up from 1650m to 2200m isn't easy but Purton goes on board and that's always a major thing to look for when horses drop in Class. Purton has only ridden this horse once previously and he ran 3rd. Moreira rides (2) Savannah Wind, who looks badly out of form, but he drops into Class 5 tonight as well and going from Alex Lai to Joao Moreira is about the biggest jockey change you can get in Hong Kong. Moreira has had six rides for trainer Danny Shum this season, resulting in three winners. So when he goes on it generally indcates they're ready to win. Notably, Moreira jumps off (3) Sky Gem who he's been riding recently and when he jumps off to get on another horse it's generally for a reason. I think (4) Dragon Warrior is way under the odds.
Also backing: (2) Savannah Wind $5.00
This is probably the worst betting race of the night. There's a stack of winning chances. (6) Jazz Steed had no luck on debut at Sha Tin, where he was caught wide without over. Casper Fownes runners go much better at Happy Valley and Purton is booked for the ride tonight so I'd expect him to improve out of sight with a nice trial win under the belt. He's a strong each way chance from the good draw. (4) Hong Kong Win placed in three of his four starts in his debut campaign. Won his only trial leading into his first up run tonight and the only concern is the wide barrier. (8) Travel Datuk had absolutely every conceivable chance to win his first race in Hong Kong last start but just found one better, and I reckon the horse that beat him is pretty good. It should be a strong form reference and he goes well second up, but he drops back to 1000m and doesn't draw as favourably as he did last start. He'll struggle to win but he's a definite place chance. (9) Very Sweet Orange was flying before his poor run last start. Drawn poorly but can run well. (12) Demons Rock another to include down in the weights after a good first up run.
Another tricky one to assess. Purton is booked for (1) Amazing Luck, which really catches my attention given he's seemingly going poorly. But this horse did a similar thing last preparation. It looks a setup to me. He's had two runs back from a spell, now drops into Class 4 and Purton is suddenly booked. The horse ran poorly in his first two starts last prep but improved third up to run 3rd. Drawn well and they've backed him early too. (8) Flame Lily won first up but it looked a nice race. He's placed in all five starts here so he'll be around the mark but he's got an awkward draw tonight in 11 and might be tested. (5) Magnetism ran home in the fastest final 400m of the race first up. He might be perfectly suited next start given his good third up record, but he's drawn low and on that first up run can definitely challenge here. I'd have something on at $6.50. (6) My Winner can be thrown in at $19 coming off a win at Sha Tin.
Value: (5) Magnetism $6.50
I know this is starting to look bad but I've got Purton on top again here with (2) Tangmere, who really, really gets his chance to break through. He's had seven starts at Happy Valley and is yet to run a place, but that can happen in Hong Kong and he might never get a better chance to win. He drops in Class, gets Purton on and draws barrier 1, which is the best barrier you can draw over 1650m at the Valley on the A course. The horse to beat is (10) Shining On, who gets Moreira on replacing Vincent Ho. He's finished well in both starts this prep and looks very well placed again. You'll get a good gauge on the form out of his last start with Magnetism in the previous race, who split (7) Flash Famous and Shining On last start. (6) Charity Wings is probably over the odds at $14. I thought he'd go well in that same race behind Flash Famous last start but he was caught wide without cover throughout and dropped out. He's got a great draw tonight and can bounce back. (12) Bundle Of Energy next best.
Only three horses I'm interested in here. (4) King's Trooper is undoubtedly the horse to beat after an impressive win first up, which backed up a terrific trial leading in. He beat Gift Of Lifeline who has since run OK since and is a horse with some talent, so the form should stack up. From the good draw, he definitely rates as the horse to beat. A horse I'm particularly interested in is (3) Top Score, though I was hoping he'd be a bit better than $5.00. He ran the fastest final 400m of the entire meeting last start when 3rd behind (5) Aurora Pegasus, who he meets again tonight and 2kg better of at the weights. He's got a good record at this track and distance and draws ideally in barrier 4. I have to have something on as he was straight in the blackbook after that run last start. (1) Precious Sweetie is over the odds at $14. He ran very well first up and should have more wins to his name than he does. I'd probably be backing King's Trooper, Top Score and Precious Sweetie at equal stakes and hoping one of the latter two wins.
Value: (1) Precious Sweetie
Going to stick with (7) Shining Ace here, who won last start for John Size and Umberto Rispoli, who retains the ride tonight. That was after a good effort first up behind Le Terroir, who has since won again impressively. He goes up in the weights tonight as a result of that last start win but I still think he's off a winnable mark and these Size runners can often continue winning as they progress through the grades. He's drawn perfectly in barrier 4 and should be right in the finish again.
Four horses to highlight here, with two at goods odds. (1) Invincible Missile is on the brink of a rise to Class 2. He won first up over 1200m at Sha Tin and was then beaten half-a-length over 1400m last time out. He comes to Happy Valley for the first time tonight and tackles 1650m for the first time too. Throw in the wide barrier and it looks a tough task, but I think he's good enough to do it. (9) Universal Go Go draws well in barrier 6 and looks the horse to beat after a 2nd placing to High Rev first up, which looks a pretty good form reference. He's placed in seven of his eight starts at the track and distance so he will no doubt be right around the mark again. Two at good odds are (3) Coby Boy and (5) Flying Quest. Coby Boy was one of only three horses to break 23 seconds for the final 400m in his race last start and I reckon that's a decent race. Flying Quest ran 21.95 home for the final 400m in his first up race. He was the only horse to break 22 seconds. Then last start he was starting to get warm when held up badly and chopped out of the race. Third up here, drawn wide but he'll get to the outside and really motor home. Backing 1, 3 and 5.
Value: (3) Coby Boy $26 & (5) Flying Quest $13
(1) Invincible Missile
$4.00
Only three horses to mention here. (1) Chefano should prove very tough to beat. He was great two starts ago over 1650m here and he had no luck at all last start when he was badly held up early in the straight. Third up tonight, back to Happy Valley, drawn well and Purton goes on. Looks the one to beat. The $11 they opened (3) Splendour And Gold at was ludicrous. He's probably still a good price at $7.00. He was absolutely butchered by Moreira last start and given a similarly poor ride first up by Matthew Poon. Moreira sticks with him tonight (as he should) because I think the horse is flying. He's drawn horribly in barrier 12 but he's capable of winning this. (7) Clement Legend is another horse that's flying after a somewhat surprising first up win over the shorter trip. He's now won six of his past nine starts, which is crazy for Hong Kong. Who's to say he can't win again? Would be surprised if the winner came outside those three.
Value: (3) Splendour And Gold $7.00
1-3-7-12
