Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, December 11th.
With a huge weekend of Group 1 racing done and dusted, racing continues at the city track for a standard nine-race card under lights.
We're racing on the C-course tonight and you can find all of our selections for every race below!
Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 11th
Best Bet: Race 5 - (8) Dr Respect
Best Value Bet: Race 6 - (7) Triumphant Horse
I'm pretty happy to say there's only two or three chances at best here. (1) Excel Delight is a clear top pick and the price seems about right, mind you even money for any horse in Class 5 can be a bit daunting. He was given a blowout first up at Sha Tin but he improved as I expected last start when Moreira suddenly jumped on for John Size. He ran home well into 2nd and the final sectionals he recorded (21.50, 22.92) were superior to anything else in this race that has run at Happy Valley recently. Barrier 7 is a good draw for him - it's the equal most successful barrier over this distance on the C-course. Looks very hard to beat. Purton jumps on (9) Exponents and he looks the danger and the value at around $8.00. He's placed three times this season and drops back to 1000m tonight. He went close over this track and distance back in September and although barrier 9 looks award, it's actually pretty good based on the stats. He doesn't win out of turn but he gets his chance with Purton on tonight. (5) Island Winner is only lightly-raced with seven starts under the belt. He dropped to Class 5 for the first time last start but didn't do much. He makes his Happy Valley debut tonight and this will be much easier than what he's been racing against to date. Trainer Ricky Yiu is flying, sitting atop the trainers premiership and he's had 10 winners from 42 starters at the Valley this season. He should be right around the money.
Very weak Class 4 this. (1) Loriz got the second win of his career last start over this track and distance, leading all the way to win by 1.8L. He cops a 6lb rise in the weights for that win and there's a few things that have me taking him on tonight. His first career win came under similar circumstances - he was allowed to lead all the way over this track and distance. He then got a 5lb rise in the weights and led in a race with more pressure in it and failed to run a place. I think a similar thing will happen tonight. There's no guarantee that he will even be able to lead this field, so he's certainly not going to get the easy run he had last start, and he has to do it with more weight. That leaves me with (2) Powermax on top. He's drawn barrier 1 which is a big advantage for him. He should be able to poke up and sit box seat, or at the least sit three back the fence. That means he'll do no work early and Purton is the best at hugging the rail at Happy Valley. The C-course also means he won't get strung up in traffic as they tend to fan wide off the bend. This is just his second start back in Class 4 and this is his pet track and distance in Hong Kong. He gets his chance to win again tonight. (6) Iron Boy gets Moreira back aboard. When Joao last rode him he finished off very well from the back of the field to run 2nd, so he can go close again.
Ugly race, no bet.
Tricky little 1800m race but there's two in particular I'm keen on backing. The first of those is (6) Bullish Glory, who ran 2nd at this track and distance three starts ago, then won over track and distance two starts ago before a 5th placed finish over 2200m last start. I think the drop back to 1800m is suitable for this horse, who clearly goes well here, and Silvestre De Sousa taking over from Chad Schofield is also a positive. (2) Perfect To Play is a really interesting runner at $10 and at that price I have to have something on. He's a horse that needs everything go his way. He's only had two career wins and last time he won it was due to the ride of the season from Zac Purton. Purton jumps back aboard tonight. The horse dropped back into Class 4 last start where he ran over 2200m, but the 1800m is more suitable for him. From barrier 12, don't be surprised to see Purton go back to last and make a mid-race move like he did last time he won on him. The jockey merry-go-round is in full swing here as Purton jumps off (1) Heavenly Thought, with Moreira taking over tonight. Moreira has won races on a couple others in this field, so to see him booked for this horse is eye-catching, especially given John Size has a runner too. The horse hasn't done much to date in HK though. (9) Dor Dor looks way under the odds to me at $5.00. He's still a maiden after 15 career starts and draws barrier 11 with Chad Schofield to ride. (11) Cheerful Star gets a good draw but he's been racing against Bullish Glory and that horse has been running the better sectionals, so I'd stick with him.
Value: (2) Perfect To Play $10
(8) Dr Respect could just about be a moral here. He finished midfield first up, where he raced three-wide without cover throughout. He's had six weeks between runs and has been back to the trials and it's no surprise to see Moreira booked tonight. He draw ideally in barrier 1, which is an advantage over this track and distance, and he should prove awfully hard to beat in a moderate race. (12) Flying Godspell and (1) Farshad look the two at value in the race. Flying Godspell is a $9.50 chance, while Farshad is $7.50. Flying Godspell drops back from Sunday grade at Sha Tin and prior to that ran OK over 1000m here. He drew wide on that occasion which isn't easy. I think the 1200m at Happy Valley is a much better option for him and the draw really gives him his chance. Barrier 3 is the most successful over this track and distance on the C-course. Farshad, on the other hand, draws poorly in barrier 12 but gets a good jockey change with Silvestre De Sousa taking over from Alex Lai.
Value: (12) Flying Godspell $9.50
There's a few good chances in this one. (1) Perfect Glory had every hope over the 1200m last start but the step up to 1650m might be what he's looking for now. Purton sticks with him which is a positive. (6) Surrealism hasn't had much luck in recent starts. He was beaten a neck two starts ago over track and distance when he had a chequered path in the straight, before once again only getting clear 200m from home last start. Perhaps he can sit a bit closer from barrier 1 tonight and he should get his chance as they generally fan out on the C-course. The horse I'm most interested in is (7) Triumphant Horse at each way odds. He was beaten less than a length first up, where he was held up early in the straight before hitting the line very strongly. He was then caught wide without cover the entire trip last start in a much stronger race than this. He won't have that problem from barrier 2 tonight and so long as Chad Schofield can get clear running in the straight, I think he'll give this a big shake. He's won third up previously so should be right at his peak.
(7) Triumphant Horse E/W
$9.00
Tough race. This is a Class 4 and we have a favourite in (12) Everyone's Elite that was hasn't won and comes off two minor placings in Class 5 company. With the rise in grade, he carries just 52kg tonight, draws well in barrier 3 and is still only lightly-raced, so he's a definite winning chance, but I can't dive into that price. I'm interested in Blake Shinn's ride (2) Sonic Fighter here. He was beaten 3.3L first up, which was his first start back down in Class 4. He rises in trip to 1650m tonight and should be fitter with that run under the belt. He's measured up in this grade previously and he gets his chance to finish in the money tonight. Joao jumps back aboard (3) Flame Lily who will go forward and be in the race for a long time. (4) City Legend never wins but always races well, while Purton jumps back on (10) Speedy Wally and is riding him at 54kg which catches the eye. The horse goes well at the track and distance but comes off a poor run. No surprise to see a turnaround in form back to Happy Valley tonight.
(2) Sonic Fighter E/W
$13
I labelled (4) Special Stars a moral last start and he duly saluted, but I'm not as confident on him tonight. In fact, I won't be having him on top. I'm sure he'll be somewhere in the finish - Joao sticks with him and he draws well in barrier 2, but he cops a penalty and finds a tougher race in my opinion. (11) Winning Method was given no hope first up, caught wide off the track the entire trip. It was a good effort to stick on for 3rd in the end. That was his first run back so that should really bring him on and he gets a much better set of circumstances tonight. Barrier 7 over the 1000m on the C-course is actually a good draw (off the rail can be advantageous here) and Karis Teetan takes over the ride. I think he can win. (8) Victoriam looks a silly price at $26. Joao Moreira has been trialling this horse but chooses to stick with the John Size runner tonight, unsurprisingly. His trials have been good though and his form from last preparation would see him right in this, in my opinion. He won back-to-back Class 4 races before failing at his first attempt in Class 3 last time we saw him. Blake Shinn goes on tonight and even though he's drawn wide in gate 11, I think he can outrun his price.
Value: (8) Victoriam $26
(11) Winning Method
$4.80
It looks a race between the top three in the market. I'm actually on the side of (1) Cue The Music. I like his set up for tonight's race. He's been racing in Class 2 company this prep and drops into Class 3 tonight, with Purton going straight on. That's normally a sign that they've had a race picked out for a while and have booked in advance knowing they'll be low enough in the ratings to get a class drop and a win. He hasn't been far away all prep so if he really gets his chance with a good draw an added bonus. (3) Le Terroir is flying. He's won both starts this prep and four of his last five. He'll go forward from barrier 10 and if he doesn't use too many tickets early, there's no reason he can't win again. (5) Shining Ace is also flying and he's got a great record at the track and distance, with two wins and two placings from five starts. He's drawn perfectly in barrier 3 and is still off a winnable weight.
(1) Cue The Music E/W
$7.00
