The four-game Saturday AFL slate in Round 5 kicks off at 1:45pm as the Giants host the Saints from Manuka Oval in Canberra. As always, we have you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the clash below. Good luck to everyone following!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
AFL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Greater Western Sydney vs St Kilda
Manuka Oval, Saturday 13th April, 1:45pm (AEST)
The Giants are absolutely rolling at the moment, sitting atop the AFL ladder with a perfect 4-0 record and a really solid percentage. Gather round, however, was the first time they have looked semi vulnerable all year, as Gold Coast held a lead deep into the 3rd quarter.
The Giants piled on five goals to two in the final term to run out 28 point winners in a high scoring game as Jesse Hogan extended his lead atop the Coleman Medal tally with another four goals while Toby Green booted five.
The Giants offence is the No.1 ranked in the league, topping the AFL in points per game as well as a number of other offensive based categories.
The Saints bounced back from a disappointing loss to the Bombers in Round 3 by overcoming the Tigers in a scrappy contest in Adelaide. It was a poor start to the game for the Saints, who managed just one goal to half time as the Tigers took a 22-point lead into the main break.
The Saints then piled on eight goals to just four in the second half to run over the top of Richmond and claim a seven-point win. Skipper Jack Steele was the catalyst for the Saints, racking up 33 touches and a game high 10 tackles while Rowan Marshall continued his impressive start to the season with 23 touches, 24 hitouts and a goal.
The Saints are one of the better teams in the AFL defensively, but still have plenty of work to do to clean up their offence, particularly their accuracy at goal. They are currently ranked third worst in the AFL for goalkicking accuracy ahead of only Adelaide and West Coast at just 41%.
Match Prediction
This game shapes up as the unstoppable force going up against the immovable object as the No.1 rated offence in the league in the Giants go up against the No.3 rated defence in the league in the Saints, who have allowed just 71.5 points per game this season.
I think the Giants hold home field advantage here and get the job done, but the line at 19.5 is a little high for my liking. The Saints tend to play better when they are underdogs, as shown by their spirited performances against both the Cats and Magpies this season. I think their defence is good enough to keep this one pretty close.
St Kilda +20.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Toby Greene 2+ Goals – I think the Saints have some pretty solid matchups for Hogan and Riccardi in Cordy and Battle respectively. However, with the natural stopper for Greene in Jimmy Webster still on the sidelines, it will likely force Callum Wilkie onto the Giants skipper. Don’t love this matchup for the Saints and think Greene could have an impact on this one.
Jack Steele 25+ Disposals – The Saints midfield was obliterated by the Giants in the elimination final last season and I think Steele will be desperate to impose himself on this game as a statement. Had a monster last week with 33 touches and is yet to miss the 25 disposal mark this season.
Marcus Windhager 20+ Disposals – Missed last week through suspension but comes straight back into the side here and should be injected straight into the midfield here as a big body to compete with the likes of Tom Green and co. His CBA’s have been way up on previous years in the three games he has played so far, racking up 20 disposals per game.
SGM Odds: $3.80 at BoomBet
