The second game of Saturday night football takes place in the west as the third place Fremantle Dockers host the 17th placed Richmond Tigers. Can Richmond cause an upset? Or will Fremantle entrench themselves in the top four? We bring you our thoughts and betting tips below!
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2024 AFL Round 17 Preview & Betting Tips
Fremantle vs Richmond
Saturday 8:10pm AEST, 6th July, Optus Stadium
Fremantle pulled off a huge upset against Sydney to snap the Swans ten game winning streak. The thrilling one-point victory saw the Dockers climb to third on the ladder, with a big opportunity to solidify their spot in the top four and avoid the log jam of teams between 3rd and 13th.
Richmond were brave but ultimately outclassed in the second half in a ten goal defeat against Carlton last week. The Tigers reduced the margin to within a goal during the third quarter, then Carlton kicked 14 of the next 17 goals to blow the margin out to 61 points at the final siren.
The Tigers injury issues continue to get worse with Dustin Martin out after being subbed off with a back injury against Carlton. Fremantle have been boosted by the returns of Brennan Cox and Michael Walters, with Cox returning for his first game since tearing his hamstring in Round 1.
Fremantle have put together a solid run of form post a three-game losing streak between Rounds 4-6. Since Round 7 the Dockers have recorded six wins, two losses and a draw.
The Dockers victory over the Swans was set up by a blistering first term where they kicked seven goals to two, which ultimately proved the difference as Sydney’s late comeback fell short. Fremantle generated 71 points from turnovers, well above their season average of 32.8 points, as 62 of their 92 points came from the defensive half. Richmond conceded a whopping 96 points from turnover last week, so it’s an area Fremantle can expose the Tigers.
Another area Freo should gain an advantage is in the clearance battle, with the Dockers ranked as the number one clearance team in the competition. The Tigers rank 18th for clearances and tackles, so if they can’t fix that gap up, things could get ugly in this matchup.
Richmond are also the lowest scoring team in the AFL this season, averaging 64.2 points per game. Justin Longmuir’s side aren’t a renowned attacking powerhouse, however they've averaged 101 points per game over their last month of football.
Match Prediction: All roads lead to a blowout in this clash looking at all the key statistical areas, and just eight weeks ago the Dockers handed Richmond a 54-point loss at the MCG. The Tigers’ trip to Optus Stadium in Round 5 was a horror show, and they’ve lost nine of their last ten games this season by an average margin of 55 points.
Fremantle will gain complete control at the stoppages in this clash which will allow the ability to play a front half game. Richmond simply don’t have the talent to hold up defensively or score enough going the other way if they can’t win the clearance battle. It’s going to be another long outing for the undermanned Tigers.
Fremantle -45.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Caleb Serong 30+ Disposals: Caleb Serong has been one of the best players in the competition this season, averaging 30.8 disposals per game in 2024. Serong loves playing against the Tigers with 38 and 31 disposal games in his last two outings against Richmond.
Luke Ryan 25+ Disposals: Like Serong, Luke Ryan had a field day against Richmond in Round 8, recording a career high 39 disposals. After a quiet two-week patch, Ryan bounced back with 26 disposals against Sydney, the sixth time he’d hit the 25 disposal mark in his last eight games.
Noah Balta Anytime Goal Scorer: With the inclusion of mid-season draftee Jacob Blight into the side against Carlton, Noah Balta went forward and kicked three of Richmond’s ten goals. Despite playing a lot of games in defence, Balta has got on the scoreboard in six games this season, producing in nearly every game he’s played up forward.
SGM Odds: $4 at BoomBet
